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000
FXUS63 KICT 221151
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER PLAINS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
THE RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED WELL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TX
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS A LONG WAY TO RETURN. SO NOT PLANNING TO GO
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES 20-40% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE INDICATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON ALL MODELS AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT IF THE NAM WERE TO PROVE CORRECT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVECTION OCCURRING.
WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY COOL...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LEE LOW AND DRYLINE WILL BE
SITUATED MAINLY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON A DAILY BASIS...TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK REASONABLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY FOR ANY
ACTIVITY COMING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

ONLY POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS OVER CNTRL KS WHERE LWR-DECK WRAP-AROUND
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OCCASIONAL 2,500FT
CIGS ACROSS KRSL & KSLN THIS MORNING. AT THE RATE THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVG E TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES VFR CIGS SHOULD RESIDE OVER
BOTH TERMINALS BY 17Z. NW WINDS ~13KTS/15MPH SHOULD BE REALIZED OVER
BOTH TERMINALS BY 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  54  74  58 /   0  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      77  52  72  57 /   0  10  20  20
NEWTON          76  51  71  56 /   0  10  20  20
ELDORADO        76  53  73  56 /   0  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  56  74  58 /   0  10  30  30
RUSSELL         75  50  72  56 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      77  51  71  56 /   0  10  20  30
SALINA          74  50  73  56 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       76  51  72  56 /   0  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  55  75  57 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         74  53  73  55 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            74  52  73  54 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  54  74  57 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$