Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 272328
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER A CHILLY
START TO THE DAY...INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

MUCH COLDER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS AN AIRMASS WITH ARCTIC ORIGINS
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE 30S AND
40S MONDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING AS LOW AS -15 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL KS DUE TO STOUT NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ATOP THE COLD AIR SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS...WITH INTERMITTENT FLURRIES
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON TO SALINA. CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS. RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO
REACH DUE TO LACK OF APPRECIABLE SNOW COVER.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE
30S BY THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ANYTIME FROM THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE AND MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
QUITE LARGE REGARDING TIMING...AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH...SO NARROWING DOWN SPECIFICS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME. LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT WINTER EVENT
ACROSS THE KS REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ALL PRECIPITATION
WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CLEAR AND
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    15  41  21  39 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      15  41  20  36 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          16  40  21  37 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        16  41  22  38 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   16  41  22  40 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         12  40  18  27 /   0   0   0  30
GREAT BEND      12  39  19  30 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          15  41  21  33 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       14  40  20  35 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     19  40  23  43 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         18  39  22  41 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            18  39  22  40 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    18  40  23  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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