Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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755
FXUS63 KICT 292341
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

An upper shear axis over the central and southern High Plains may
drift only slightly northeastward tonight into Tuesday. This shear
axis is then progged to push slowly southward through
Kansas/Missouri Tuesday night into Wednesday, as an upper trough
deepens over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A very moist, subtropical
airmass (PW`s 1-2 standard deviations above the mean) will be in
place across the region through Wednesday, before a front pushes
some drier, less unstable air through from Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Scattered, diurnally-enhanced convection may diminish after sunset
across south-central/southeast Kansas. However, convection chances
will be most probable/persistent in a corridor along and just east
of the aforementioned shear axis from southwest through north-
central Kansas tonight, possibly expanding a bit further
east/northeast Tuesday. Pockets of heavy rainfall/localized flooding
can be expected with the slow-moving storm clusters, aided by weak
upper diffluent flow. Isolated strong wet downbursts will also be
possible in this weak shear environment. Shower/storm chances will
then become likely area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
shear axis begins a slow southward shift. Again, locally heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will be the main threats with this
activity, with isolated strong wet downbursts possible. Rain chances
should diminish from northeast to southwest from Wednesday night
into early Thursday, as drier air advects into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

GFES/ECMWF indicate upper ridging over the south-central CONUS at
the beginning of this extended period, will shift east to the
southeastern U.S., while a mean, positively-tilted upper trough
moves across the western states, affecting the northern/central
Plains by Sunday/Monday. Lee troughing and southerly return flow
should allow temperatures to climb to slightly above seasonal
averages by Sunday/Monday, just ahead of a cold frontal passage.
Isolated, mainly elevated convection is possible over the central
part of Kansas during the nighttime/morning hours this weekend. A
better chance of thunderstorms may arrive Monday pm/night, as the
cold front encounters rich gulf moisture, with our forecast area
in the right-rear quadrant of an upper level jet streak.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Aviation concern will be convection this evening and again Tue
afternoon and evening.

Storms are expected to continue for at least the next few hours,
with the better coverage over central KS(KRSL-KGBD). Extremely
high rainfall rates and high microburst winds will be main
threats with stronger storms. With extremely moist low levels
remaining in place, could see some light fog after 10z at a few
sites but it doens`t appear we are looking at a dense fog
scenario. With the airmass remaining unchanged, should see storms
develop once again Tue afternoon, with best coverage again west of
I-135.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  86  69  83 /  30  40  50  60
Hutchinson      68  84  67  81 /  50  60  60  60
Newton          69  84  67  81 /  30  50  60  60
ElDorado        70  85  68  83 /  30  50  50  60
Winfield-KWLD   70  87  69  85 /  20  40  40  60
Russell         66  82  65  80 /  60  60  60  60
Great Bend      66  82  65  81 /  60  60  60  60
Salina          69  83  68  81 /  50  60  60  60
McPherson       67  83  67  81 /  50  60  60  60
Coffeyville     71  91  70  85 /  20  30  30  60
Chanute         71  87  69  82 /  20  40  40  60
Iola            71  86  69  82 /  20  50  40  60
Parsons-KPPF    71  89  70  84 /  20  30  30  70

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL



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