Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 050807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS MORNING:

ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A
HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:

CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
SW KS LEADS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.
WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.

CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU
EARLY WED MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  71  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  70  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          86  69  93  71 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        87  70  93  72 /  50  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  72  96  74 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         88  68  95  69 /  20   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      89  69  96  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          86  70  94  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  69  95  71 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  94  75 /  60  40  10  20
CHANUTE         86  70  92  72 /  70  40  10  30
IOLA            84  70  91  72 /  70  40  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    87  71  93  74 /  70  40  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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