Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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310
FXUS63 KICT 302035
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
335 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Tonight-Friday:
Convective trends will be the big issue. Barely capped, decently
unstable and weakly forced atmosphere will result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms through sunset across southern half of
forecast area. A few strong-marginally severe storms are possible.
With loss of heating, expect storms to wane quickly at sunset.
Storms will increase late tonight as 850MB flow increases, along
with increasing 850MB-700MB frontogenesis and convergence. Expect
fairly widespread rain spreading across the area towards
daybreak as Western KS storms move/develop eastward. Good chance
that rain/storms will linger well into the afternoon in the east.
Temperatures rather tricky tomorrow with much depending on how
quickly rain/clouds exit.

Friday night-Sunday:
Considerable uncertainty throughout this period, with model
verification of MCS tracks poor over the past week or so, and not
optimistic that today`s runs are any better. That said, will
likely be a baroclinic zone somewhere across KS with potential for
multiple rounds of strong storms producing copious rainfall
somewhere in the state. By the weekend precipitable water over 2
inch is forecast by both NAM/GFS. Given uncertainty of timing/
location of heavy rain, will not hoist flood watch at this time
but will mention heavy rain in hazardous weather outlook.
Temperatures also a big unknown, with temperatures likely only in
the 70s in areas where clouds/rain persist throughout the day.
Southern sections may see fair amount of Sunday and hedged
temperatures warmer there. One significant caveat, if storms/
rain shield is large/robust, effective front could push closer to
the OK border, resulting in heavy rain shifting further south
than currently anticipated. Best chance of precipitation appears
late Saturday into Sunday as shortwave moves across the area. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Little changes made to initialization grids. Initial zonal flow
transitions to more ridging by end of period. This will result in
warming temperatures and decreasing chances for precipitation.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Cannot rule out a few isolated thunderstorms mid/late this
afternoon and evening over southern KS along a stalling frontal
zone. Suspect activity will be fairly isolated given marginal
convergence and little upper support. Given this fact, left
mention out of Wichita and Chanute TAFs. Better chances for
showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight and especially
Friday, as the stalled frontal zone sharpens across the region
and shortwave energy begins to approach from the west. Given
uncertainty on timing and location of precipitation, only inserted
VCSH instead of VCTS at all sites for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  85  68  90 /  30  50  40  40
Hutchinson      68  82  66  85 /  40  50  50  50
Newton          68  82  65  85 /  30  50  50  50
ElDorado        69  82  67  89 /  20  50  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   71  87  70  94 /  30  50  30  30
Russell         66  80  62  79 /  50  50  60  60
Great Bend      67  81  64  83 /  50  50  60  50
Salina          68  82  64  83 /  30  50  60  60
McPherson       67  81  64  84 /  40  50  60  60
Coffeyville     71  85  69  93 /  20  50  30  20
Chanute         70  83  67  89 /  30  50  50  40
Iola            69  82  66  87 /  20  50  50  50
Parsons-KPPF    70  84  69  91 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK



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