Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 142003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
203 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SOME LIFT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES...HOWEVER LOW-
LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS
UPPER WAVE...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE OFFSET BY A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE WIND DIRECTION...THEREFORE HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY`S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...WHICH COULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF MONDAY`S
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...BUT STILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
CLIMATE AVERAGES.

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER INTO THE
EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
SLIDES EAST OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULTANT LEE TROUGHING AND RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS WED
IN THE 60S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING
A PACIFIC FLOW REGIME PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THURSDAY STILL PROJECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. LEE
TROUGHING AND A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY...SHOULD LEAD TO
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. 850 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND 1000-850
THICKNESS VALUES ON THE ECMWF AND GFS...SUPPORT NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD WARMTH THURSDAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A
PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT LOOKS TOO WEAK AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES HANG UP TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE
TO IMPROVE SOME (BUT STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL) OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE WARM SECTOR IS PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH INTO KANSAS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL IN BOTH THE ECWMF AND GFS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY-
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ALL AREAS TO REMAIN VFR THRU MON MRNG. CIGS WL LWR CONSIDERABLY
LATE TNGT AS A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT ENTERS CNTRL KS 06Z-08Z. HWVR
CIGS SHUD BE NO LWR THAN ~5,000FT IN CNTRL KS FROM 07Z ONWARD. THE
NW WINDS OCRG IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY REACH ~13KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MODERATE TO
HIGH CATEGORY FOR EARLY TO MIDWEEK. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER INTO AT LEAST THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY AREA-WIDE. FIRE WEATHER OFFICALS SHOULD MONITOR
THURSDAY`S FORECAST CLOSELY FOR ANY POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  60  38  59 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  60  37  57 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  58  38  56 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        34  59  38  58 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  63  38  60 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL         31  59  35  56 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  60  36  57 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          32  59  37  56 /  10  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  59  37  57 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     34  61  38  60 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         33  58  37  57 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            33  57  37  55 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    34  59  37  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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