Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 011936
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CENTRAL WY. AT THE SURFACE...THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MO TO NEAR KICT AND FINALLY INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...STRETCHES
FROM NEAR KAVK TO KPNC AND TO JUST NORTH OF TULSA. THIS FEATURE
HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND IS VERY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME SURFACE BASED STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW THAT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN OK
WITH SE KS LOOKING FAIRLY STABLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE AREA MAY BE SE OF PRATT...WHERE THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INTERSECT. BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER DARK AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN THE 310-315K LAYER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ANY STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE 45-55KT RANGE AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...EVEN IN AN
ELEVATED LAYER. GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

DID GO AHEAD AND THROW A FEW COUNTIES IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER
SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH BUT
MANY OF THOSE COUNTIES RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
WON`T TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH.

WE WILL GET BACK TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN KS ON TUE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL ARRIVES FOR TUE NIGHT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST LEAVING DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BY THUR BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THUR NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY FRI. THIS WILL
KEEP MODERATE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FRI-SAT
TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS START TO DIVERGE. THE GFS IS MUCH AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO
THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND THUS A
WETTER SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE WORK WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS.
MOST OF LOW CLOUD DECK IS LOCATED IN AND AROUND A WEAK SYNOPTIC
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THINK THIS MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY RISE SOME AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VFR CIGS STAY
AROUND.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AND
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT...AS IT DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK THE PREDOMINATE AREA OF TSRA WILL BE LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KCNU FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PLAN ON GOING WITH PREVAILING TSRA
FOR THIS TAF AS WELL...LATER THIS EVENING...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN
OVER THIS AREA FOR LATE THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THINK INCREASING UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST
SOUTH OF KICT...WILL BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP
WITHIN 25 MILES OF KICT...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF AS
WELL FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  71  95 /  40  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      66  88  70  95 /  30  20  30  10
NEWTON          66  89  70  94 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        68  89  71  94 /  40  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  89  72  94 /  60  30  30  10
RUSSELL         62  87  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      63  87  69  95 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          64  87  71  95 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       65  87  70  94 /  20  10  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  88  72  92 /  70  40  30  20
CHANUTE         69  88  71  92 /  70  30  40  20
IOLA            68  88  70  92 /  70  20  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    70  88  71  92 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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