Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231152
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE...INCREASING DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
JET...AND DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AT TIMES. APPEARS THAT EARLY
IN PERIOD...BULK OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...THEN
SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY. RENEWED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AS PERSISTENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE/LOW
LEVEL JET PARKS OVER THAT AREA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS VERY
GOOD IN SOUTHEAST KS...WHERE SIGNIFICANT AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. THREAT IN WESTERN EDGES OF WATCH APPEARS FAVOR SHORT
TERM ISSUES WITH DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO GOING WATCH.

SUN-SUN NIGHT:
SUN MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FROM
SAT NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS . SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN HALF...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT HEATING WILL LIKELY
RENEW CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
LIKELY TRAVERSE THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOCUS AGAIN
APPEARS TO BE AREA EAST OF I-35.

MON:
THIS IN ONE THE MOST CHALLENGING PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. MODELS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL WANE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW INSTABILITY SOARING / 3000+ J/KG / WITH HEATING...BUT ONLY
25-30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LITTLE CAP. GIVEN LACK OF OBVIOUS
SURFACE BOUNDARY...ANTICIPATE MORE SUMMER-LIKE STORMS TO DEVELOP
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO MON EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH LOW END HAIL AND MICROBURSTS LOOK TO BE
MAIN THREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

SHORTWAVE EXITS AREA AT START OF PERIOD...WHILE WESTERN TROUGH
RELOADS. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION AND ALLOW AREA TO DRY OUT A BIT. INITIALIZATION GRIDS
HAVE LOW POPS NEARLY ALL PERIODS...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TRANSITION OF UPPER PATTERN...HARD PRESSED TO GO AGAINST IT. LACK
OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT PERIOD FURTHER
COMPLICATES CONVECTION FORECAST. TEMPERATURES EQUALLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN UNCERTAIN CLOUD/PRECIPITATION FORECAST. INITIALIZATION BLEND
LIKELY THE LEAST WRONG...WITH SOME DAYS IN THE PERIOD BEING
WARMER/SOME COOLER THAN INIT...MODULATED BY AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ENVISION LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO INSERT TEMPO GROUPS FOR +TSRA AT ALL/MOST SITES. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...CIGS MAY ACTUALLY RISE TO HIGH IFR OR MVFR
WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE. IFR CIGS OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  62  73  60 /  90  80  40  30
HUTCHINSON      65  62  73  60 /  80  70  30  20
NEWTON          66  62  71  60 /  80  80  50  30
ELDORADO        67  63  71  60 /  90  90  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  63  72  61 / 100  90  50  40
RUSSELL         64  61  74  60 /  60  30  20  30
GREAT BEND      64  61  73  61 /  70  30  30  30
SALINA          65  62  73  60 /  70  70  30  30
MCPHERSON       65  62  72  60 /  80  70  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     72  65  72  63 /  90 100  90  50
CHANUTE         70  64  72  61 /  90 100  90  50
IOLA            70  64  72  61 /  90 100  90  50
PARSONS-KPPF    71  64  71  62 /  90 100  90  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-068-069-083-092-093.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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