Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 051135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN /ESPECIALLY
FOR SEPTEMBER/ NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES.  CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF MOVING EAST...AND WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT
OUT OVER OF THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES LATER IN THE FORECAST.
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TEMPERATURES.  CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.  THAT SAID...NWP CONTINUES TO PUSH BACK THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION /NOW INTO MID WEEK/ EVERY RUN.
GIVEN THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...THESE SYSTEMS THAT ARE EJECTING
TYPICALLY ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY NPW MODELS.  THEY TYPICALLY MOVE
THE LOW OUT TOO FAST.  SO...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FRONT IS
DELAYED INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION FROM DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

THE RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEAKENS AND EJECTS
EAST.  THIS WILL BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION...ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANTLY...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY IN THE 70S.

GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL AID IN PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.  AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH LOOK
RATHER LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST ARE BY THE END OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST IS HIGH.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER...SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS WITH THE
STORMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LACK OF SHEAR THAT WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  THAT SAID...STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT COULD BE STRONG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  97  75 /   0  10  10  30
HUTCHINSON      95  75  98  73 /   0  10  10  30
NEWTON          94  73  96  73 /   0  10  10  30
ELDORADO        94  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  97  74 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELL         98  75 100  69 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      97  75  99  70 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          97  77  98  73 /   0  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       95  74  97  72 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     93  73  95  74 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         93  73  94  73 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            92  73  94  73 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    93  74  95  74 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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