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000
FXUS63 KICT 100305
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
905 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.UPDATE...

SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME....WITH TEMPS FALLING OFF RATHER QUICKLY. WITH WIND GOING
CALM....RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WHERE DEEPEST SNOW COVER IS LOCATED...FROM
KINGMAN TO THE NORTH WICHITA TO JUST SOUTH OF EMPORIA. WARMER THAN
EXPECTED DAYTIME TEMPS LED TO LOTS OF MELTING OF THE SNOW
COVER...WHICH ALSO LED TO SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE
TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS FALLING
INTO LOWER TEENS OR SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT (NEAR THE CROSS OVER TEMP)
WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FORMATION SOMETIME EARLY ON
WED.  NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GO....BUT
LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MORE SURFACE BASED...WILL ONLY
MEAN VSBYS OF 2 TO 5 MILES. ALREADY HAVE SOME FREEZING FOG OVER SNOW
COVER SWATH...BUT WILL ALSO ADD SOME FREEZING FOG TO CENTRAL KS AS
WELL...AS TEMPS FALL OFF AND DEWPOINTS STAY UP.

KETCHAM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO MOST OF THE STRATO-CU OVER ERN KS
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.  THIS GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
..ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.  THIS LIGHT WIND AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE CROSS-OVER TEMP
AFTER 06Z/WED...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 NEAR THE KHUT/KICT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF
SITES.  ONLY EXPECT VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR.

MID CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF KS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON WED...WITH KHUT/KICT/KRSL AND KSLN BECOMING BKN AT
AROUND 5000 FEET FOR THE AFTERNOON.

KETCHAM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

SYNOPSIS...
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE RESPONIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FROM SUN
& SUNDAY NIGHT HAD VENTURED E ACROSS INDIANA & OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE PUNCHING N FROM W TX & WRN OK BECOMING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE CNTRL & SC KS EXPERIENCED SOMETHING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT
A WEEK: A SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO ERN KS WHERE WRAP
AROUND STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE CONTINUED TO
SPREAD IN A SE MANNER OVER SE KS.

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON FZFG POTENTIAL OVER THE REMNANT SNOW FIELD EXTENDING
IN A W-E MANNER ACROSS SRN KS. CLEAR SKIES & DIMINISHING NW WINDS SHOULD
PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING & WITH GREATEST RESIDUAL MOISTURE
NO DOUBT SITUATED OVER THESE AREAS HAVE RETAINED FZFG DESCRIPTOR TO SC &
SE KS...ALTHOUGH IN A W-E ORIENTATION. REST OF INHERITED FORECAST KEPT
INTACT.

WED & WED NGT:
QUIET WEATHER SLATED ALL AREAS AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES E ACROSS KS & MO.
HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E OF KICT COUNTRY WED EVENING LWR-DECK
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AS LWR-DECK "RETURN" MOISTURE MIGRATES NE
FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. AS SUCH AM BIASING TOWARD COOLER MET SOLUTION
FOR WED`S MAXES. GRADUALLY INCREASING SLY LWR-DECK FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
FAIRLY NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGE BOTH PERIODS.

THU & THU NGT:
A FAIRLY STRONG SRN STREAM MID-UPR LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE E TOWARD
THE WRN RIO GRANDE THU AFTERNOON. WITH THE FEATURE TRACKING WELL TO THE
S OF KS ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR SRN
PLAINS WHERE BETTER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WOULD BE REALIZED.

FRI & FRI NGT:
A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE SPRINTING SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL SWEEP ANOTHER
COLD FRONT (ALBEIT WEAK) IN LIKE MANNER ACROSS KS. THE BOUNDARY WILL
CROSS KICT COUNTRY UNEVENTFULLY WITH NO MORE THAN A WEAK SW-NW WINDSHIFT
ANTICIPATED.

NEXT WEEKEND:
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON POLAR VORTEX THAT`LL SURGE S FROM MANITOBA TO
ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER LATE FRI NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL SURGE SSE
TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE MID-MS VALLEY SAT NIGHT & SUN MORNING BEFORE
ASSUMING AN ELY TRACK OVER THE OH VALLEY SUN NIGHT. THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SURGING SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD VENTURE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY
SAT AFTERNOON AND EXIT SE KS SAT EVENING. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING PRIOR TO
THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL MAY ENABLE MAXES TO REACH THE LWR 40S ON SAT. THERE
MAY BE SOME -RA/-SN OVER SE KS SAT EVENING AS THE GFS STILL DEPICTS WELL
DEFINED 850-MB THETA-E AXIS PUNCHING NE FROM THE WRN RED RIVER ACROSS OK
TO SE KS & SW MO. PROGGING A FASTER SE MOVEMENT OF THE POLAR VORTEX THE
ECMWF POSITIONS THE NEARLY W-E ORIENTED THETA-E AXIS FURTHER S OVER OK.
SUCH DISCAGREEMENT DICTATES ASSIGNING ONLY 15-20% POPS TO SE KS SAT NGT.
INHERITED TEMPS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT     9  28  22  38 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON       7  27  21  37 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON           8  27  21  37 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        10  28  19  38 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   11  29  21  39 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL          6  26  19  36 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND       6  26  20  36 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA           7  26  20  37 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON        7  26  20  37 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     12  30  20  41 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         12  28  18  39 /   0   0  10   0
IOLA            12  28  17  39 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    12  29  18  40 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$