Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 100234
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
834 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Updated to increase cloud cover tonight and especially Sat and to
increase mins over se KS.

Short term models have been fairly consistent in lifting another
swath of low clouds north across the area Sat morning and leaving
them in place through at least mid afternoon. So went ahead and
increased cloud cover for mainly the 12-21z Sat time frame. With
low clouds sticking around se KS most of the night, lows may not
fall off as much as previously expected. So raised them a few
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

This Weekend:
The thermostat will get turned up considerably for as the inverted
surface ridge continues to be pushed east forming a secondary high
pressure center over the Ohio Valley, the Front Range surface
cyclone will strengthen further to produce stronger southerly flow
across central third of the CONUS. The afore-mentioned surface
cyclone is still scheduled to move east into KS and Western OK on
Sunday. Such behavior would produce a sharp moisture axis that`ll
be aligned from TX, thru Eastern OK, to along the KS/MO state line.
A relatively weak mid-level shortwave moving quite rapidly east
across the Northern and Central Plains will then push a cold front
SE that should extend from near the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the
Central Red River by Sun Evening. Areas of light rain and drizzle
will develop across Eastern KS and most of MO on Sun but will end
by Sun Evening as weak surface high pushes SE into KS Sun Night &
early Mon Morning.

Mon & Mon Night:
With a progressive pattern in place the surface high will scoot
east, crossing the Mississippi Valley around noon. This allow
southerly winds to quickly return to KS to produce one more day of
somewhat balmy weather.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Highlight: Another blast Arctic air set to invade the neighborhood.

Tue-Wed Night:
A vicious polar vortex will push eastsoutheast across Central
Canada on Tue and intensify further as it crosses Ontario Wed and
Wed Night. This would enable another shot of Arctic air to invade
the region. We will "chill out" the most Wed and Wed Night with
highs struggling to reach the mid 20s and lows from 10 to 15,
respectively. Wed may be especially nasty as Northerly 15 to 25
mph winds would certainly put a bite into us. Some post-frontal
light snow will spread across KS late Tue Night and Wed but little
accumulation should result.

Thu-Fri:
All will be quiet as strong high pressure dominates. If the ECMWF
verifies with a more dynamic pattern, i.e. a MUCH STRONGER Arctic
High centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley with a VERY INTENSE
cyclone over the Southern Rockies, Southern KS may see a thaw on
Fri where a more southerly lower-deck flow would reside.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Main aviation concern will be the behavior of stratus through most
of this taf period.

3,500-6,000ft stratus deck that has lingered across the area most
of the day is starting to move out of the western fringes of the
forecast area. Should continue to see clearing on the western
fringes this evening, clearing out of KICT by 02z. After this
evening, confidence in stratus drops significantly. HRRR, RAP and
NAM bring another surge of stratus up by late Sat morning,
encompassing the entire forecast area by the afternoon hours. With
a few models agreeing on this solution, will go with at least a
broken deck most of the day Sat but will keep at VFR levels until
confidence increases.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    20  45  34  48 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      19  44  32  45 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          20  42  33  44 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        21  43  34  48 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   22  45  37  51 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         17  40  27  41 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      18  42  28  42 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          17  42  30  42 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       18  43  31  44 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     23  44  37  54 /   0   0  20  30
Chanute         23  43  34  50 /   0   0  10  30
Iola            22  42  32  49 /   0   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    23  43  36  53 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RBL
SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL



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