Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 281154
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
554 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Richer gulf moisture arrived overnight across the area along with
low clouds, however it will be short-lived as low level winds veer out
to a southwest direction today and usher in much drier air from
western Kansas. This dry air will scour out the shallow moisture
and clear out the low clouds. Daytime highs will be well above
normal today especially for southern Kansas along with gusty south
winds. Thunderstorm chances are still possible over far southeast
Kansas later this afternoon but will depend if moisture quality
can sustain itself. The better chances of thunderstorms for
eastern Kansas/western Missouri should be this evening when the
cold front finally encounters the moisture axis. Strong/severe
storms are possible given the strong wind shear aloft. Meanwhile a
band of light rain could try and change over to snow tonight
across central Kansas, but it would be brief and not expecting
accumulations.

Cooler air will overspread the region on Wednesday with surface high
pressure building across the central plains followed by slightly
warmer readings on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Dry and warmer weather conditions will prevail for Kansas this
period as a zonal upper level pattern establishes itself across the
country. This weather pattern will also generate stronger south
winds across Kansas, as a surface lee trough deepens across the high
plains and tightens the pressure gradient.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Low stratus (IFR/MVFR) will impact areas generally along-east of
the Kansas Turnpike this morning, where dewpoint depressions
remain low. This should edge east of the ICT terminal toward
14Z/15Z, with the stratus lingering at CNU most of the morning.

A frontal boundary is expected to remain quasi-stationary across
central and southwest Kansas for much of today before surging
southward late this afternoon into tonight. Southerly wind gusts
of 30-40 knots appear likely in south-central/southeast KS
(HUT,ICT,CNU terminals) from midday into this afternoon with
deeply-mixed unidirectional wind profiles. Winds will shift to
northwest with gusts of 25-30 knots behind the surging front late
today-tonight. Strong-severe storms may develop along the cold
front in the 00z-07z timeframe from northwest Missouri to far
southeast Kansas. This activity may get briefly close to the CNU
terminal, but the brunt of the storm development is expected east
of the terminal overnight. Other areas of light rain are possible
in central Kansas this evening in association with the mid-level
frontal zone. MVFR ceilings may advect southward into eastern
Kansas tonight behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Very high to extreme grassland fire danger risk is likely across
southern Kansas this afternoon given strong gusty southwest winds
and very dry air spreading eastward today. A red flag warning has
been hoisted for southern Kansas where the worst conditions are
expected to occur. Meanwhile very high fire danger levels will be in
place again on Wednesday afternoon with increasing dry northwest
winds. Southerly winds will increase again for Friday into the
upcoming weekend which will lead to very high grassland fire danger
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  35  55  28 /  10  30   0   0
Hutchinson      70  32  54  26 /  10  50   0   0
Newton          72  33  52  28 /  10  50   0   0
ElDorado        75  35  54  28 /  10  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   76  36  55  28 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         57  28  50  24 /  30  40   0   0
Great Bend      62  29  51  24 /  20  60   0   0
Salina          65  31  53  27 /  20  70   0   0
McPherson       68  31  53  26 /  10  60   0   0
Coffeyville     78  40  57  29 /  20  20   0   0
Chanute         78  37  56  28 /  10  30   0   0
Iola            78  37  55  28 /  10  40   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    78  39  56  28 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098-099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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