Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 031136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/NW KS WITH A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX
INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS/OK AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE BULK OF THE LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT WORST...MAY
HAVE TO INSERT SOME SPRINKLES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH AND
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR WED INTO THU. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN VERY
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
WARMING TEMPS. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY WED WITH MANY
SITES PUSHING 80 BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY FRI AFTERNOON...DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND
BY SUN MORNING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME ENERGY STARTING TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVEMOVING
OUT THE UPPER ENERGY MON COMPARED TO THE GFS. AT THIS TIME IT
STILL LOOKS DRY UNTIL THE SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH SOME ELEVATED
STORMS POSSIBLE. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LIKE THE
SUN AND MON TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS TODAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH WINDS SWITCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN
BACK TO THE WEST BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      73  48  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          72  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        72  49  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  48  75  47 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  45  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  46  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          72  47  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       72  48  75  45 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  49  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         71  49  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            71  49  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    71  49  74  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ



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