Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 181134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EASTER WEEKEND:
ALL AREAS TO GET WINDY & WARMER TODAY & SATURDAY AS WESTERN PLAINS
SURFACE TROFFING BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF. INHERITED TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD. NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SAT NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM
ARRIVAL BEING DELAYED UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AS MID-UPPER WAVE REMAINS
OVER WESTERN PLAINS THEREBY SLOWING SE PROGRESS OF ATTENDANT SURFACE
COLD FRONT. LOWEST ~15,000FT OF AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY EVEN AS FAR NW AS
THE NW CORRIDOR OF FORECAST AREA (NW OF SALINA-GREAT BEND). SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTENING DOES OCCUR OVER THE AREAS FROM ~3-7AM SO DID ASSIGN A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER CENTRAL KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED NONE-THE-LESS. IT COULD BE SOMEWHAT
SOGGY EASTER AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-UPPER WAVE VENTURES FURTHER E
OVER WESTERN KS. THIS WOULD OF COURSE PUSH COLD FRONT FURTHER SE OVER
WESTERN KS. LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AS DOES LOWER-DECK
CONVERGENCE (ALBEIT GRADUALLY). HAVE RETAINED ~50% POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
& SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SPREADS
SLOWLY E TOWARD EASTERN KS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PROGRESSION IS SLOW SO AS
SUCH HAVE SPREAD 50-60% THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER W COVERING ALL OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. SLOW SE PROGRESS OF MID-LEVEL WAVE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MON & MON NIGHT:
SLOW E/SE ADVANCEMENT OF OVERALL PATTERN DICTATES KEEPING ALL FACETS
OF INHERITED FORECAST (20-50% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS) INTACT TO REFLECT DEPICTED
COLD FRONTAL POSITIONING. SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS MON AFTERNOON AS SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL WAVE VACATES THESE
AREAS.

TUE-THU:
AFTER A DRY TUE THUNDERSTORM RETURN TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-UPPER
CYCLONE VENTURES TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED & WED
NIGHT. THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE & IT`S ATTENDANT TROF
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK
& WITH THIS BEING A MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1SM AND 3SM AND AM EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH KRSL GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30
AND 35 MPH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER-DECK FLOW ADVECTING WARMER & DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS) THE FIRE
DANGER WILL INCREASE TODAY & SAT. THE RED FLAGS WON`T BE HOISTED BUT
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  50  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  49  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          68  49  75  57 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  48  76  58 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  50  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         71  50  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      70  50  78  58 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          70  49  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       70  49  77  57 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         70  46  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  46  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  48  76  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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