Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 081740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE COMBINING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY BUT POSSIBLY STRONGER. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP MIXING TO 8000H WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS...WHERE GRADIENT
AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
ALREADY HOISTED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...AND THINK THIS LOOKS FINE. THINK THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS PLACES REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY..GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT
SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL TEMPER THE COOL
DOWN. THE DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION IN
THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND
GENERALLY THROUGH FRI. TODAYS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WINDS THAT ARE LESS GUSTY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT
BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN
THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MODERATING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THU AND FRI AS NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...SO WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE
POPS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES LATER IN THE
WEEK. QUICK HITTING NATURE WILL NOT LEAD TO MUCH OF A PRECIP
CHANCE EVEN IF MOISTURE DOES IMPROVE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG NW WINDS TODAY.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH HAS SETUP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTING
IN STRONG/DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS HAS
BROUGHT VERY STRONG SURFACE WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE COMMON AREA WIDE. THESE SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE QUITE A BIT AROUND AND ESPECIALLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS IN THE 3,000-4,000FT RANGE HAVE AFFECTED
EASTERN KS SO FAR TODAY WITH SOME OF THIS IMPACTING KCNU. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN ON TUE BUT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
THAN WHERE THEY ARE NOW. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIODS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME VALUES MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS...WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THINK THAT CURED FUELS WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND LEAD TO ANY FIRE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      42  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          40  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        41  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         40  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          41  23  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  44  24 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         38  24  41  22 /  20   0   0   0
IOLA            37  23  39  21 /  30   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  25  43  22 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ050-067>069-
082-083-091>093.

&&

$$



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