Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221958
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
158 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A vigorous winter storm will continue to make progress across the
forecast area early today, with wraparound snow in the comma head
of the system increasing across northern and central KS as the
upper low makes its way east across central KS. Trowal axis
wrapping from Neb back SW into north central KS will enhance
snowfall rates for areas just to the NW of the forecast area. Some
concern about a little higher snow totals along Interstate 70 for
the morning hours, as the trowal axis with increased lift remains
situated over north central KS for a good portion of the morning
hours, which may increase snow totals some. Latest hiRes model
solutions seems to support snow totals a little higher but not
enough to change the gist of the going forecast. But think some
areas north of I-70 may see snow totals in the 2 to 3 inch range.
Further to the south along and north of highway 56, think snow
totals around an inch still look reasonable. After looking at some
of the snow totals off the hi-rez solutions, thought about adding
McPherson and rice co`s to the advisory but will hold off for
now. The only thing that gives me pause is the main upper low is
progged to go right over this area later this morning, which may
locally enhance snow totals. For now think the forecast is on
track.

As the upper low shifts into central KS, a tight pressure gradient
with strong N-NW winds gusting to 40 mph will develop across most of
central and south central KS.  The combination of the snow and gusty
winds will lead to very hazardous travel conditions even with the
lighter snow amounts. Current winter weather advisory will hit the
reduced visibilities hard.  Think a wind advisory south of the
snowfall area looks fine, given the strong gradient winds expected
even across south central KS.

Most of the warm advection showers located ahead of the dry line
have shifted east into MO early today, with main cold front pushing
east across the area this morning.  Think most of south central and
southeast KS may see a brief changeover to snow on the southern end
of the comma head late this afternoon, as it rotates east and slowly
lifts to the northeast by this afternoon.  Not expecting much precip
south of highway 50.

Pressure gradient should relax this evening and overnight as the
storm system rapidly pulls to the NE of the area.  Upper ridge will
build across the Rockies for Tue/Wed.  Not expecting much of a cool
down behind todays departing system, as downslope W-NW flow will
lead to seasonal temps both days.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A warming trend will return to the region for Thu and Fri as the
ridge over the Rockies flattens out with zonal flow across most of
the plains.  This will lead to southerly surface flow and max temps
warmer well above normal.

A quick hitting system looks to move across the northern plains for
Fri into Fri night.  Due to quick nature of the system, low level
moisture will be slow return to the area as the system approaches,
with areas east of the Flint Hills having a small chance of rain or
rain changing to snow for Fri night.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Some MVFR cigs continued across portions of central and much of
south central and southeast KS. Flight categories are expected to
increase through the afternoon and evening as the storm system
lifts away from the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Very high grassland fire danger is expected across most of
south central KS today with strong gusty N-NW winds and cured
grasses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    26  48  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      26  46  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          25  45  23  52 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        26  46  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   26  49  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         23  44  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      22  45  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          25  44  22  52 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       25  45  21  52 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     27  49  25  54 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         27  46  25  52 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            27  45  25  51 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    27  48  25  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham



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