Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 161157
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
657 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Showers and storms will be ongoing early in the period and may allow
the effective front to be forced further south lowering confidence
in the afternoon forecast. The latest model consensus suggests the
front will set up along or just west of the Kansas Turnpike corridor
by early to mid afternoon. Convergence along the front will be
sufficient to overcome the cap with scattered to numerous storms
anticipated after 21z. MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG combined with
steep mid lvl lapse rates and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40 knots should
allow for a few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds.
Drier air will quickly arrive in the wake of the front with storm
activity diminishing by 09Z or so.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on
Thursday and Thursday evening with seasonable temperatures expected.

Another progressive shortwave trough will dig across the Upper
Mississippi Valley area on Friday driving a cold front south across
the Central Plains states. This front may provide a focus for deep
moist convection on Friday afternoon and Friday evening. If model
trends remain consistent, another round of severe thunderstorms will
be possible across the area on Friday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Shortwave ridging will return to the area over the weekend
with mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures. Highs on
Sunday may climb above normal across the area reaching the mid 90s
over central KS.

Unsettled weather may return early in the week as northwest
mid/upper flow is progged across the central Conus. Another cold
front may arrive toward the end of the period bringing higher
probabilities for showers and storms once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

A progressive complex of thunderstorms continues to make progress
across central KS his morning time. Will see some gusty outflow
winds along the leading edge of the storms for the KSLN taf site, so
will go with a variable wind gust to 40 kts for an hour or two. Will
also go with a VCTS for a few more hours for KICT/KHUT and KGBD as
the complex and moisture advection leads to some additional storms.
Expect this complex to make slow progress to the E-Ne for the rest
of the morning, with a wind shift in its wake.

Attention than shifts to convective chances along the frontal
boundary is it pushes to near the KS Turnpike for the afternoon
hours. Think convection will redevelop along the boundary, affecting
the KICT/KCNU and potentially the KHUT taf sites early this
afternoon. So will go with a VCTS for this chance into the evening
hours.

Will also see a wind shift to the NW as the front pushes SE for the
evening hours.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  67  88  67 /  60  60   0  20
Hutchinson      89  65  88  66 /  40  30   0  20
Newton          88  65  86  66 /  60  60   0  10
ElDorado        88  66  86  66 /  70  80   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  68  88  68 /  60  70   0  20
Russell         85  61  89  65 /  60  20   0  30
Great Bend      85  62  88  65 /  50  10   0  30
Salina          87  65  89  66 /  50  30   0  20
McPherson       88  64  87  65 /  40  40   0  20
Coffeyville     88  71  88  67 /  70  80  10  10
Chanute         87  69  86  65 /  70  80  10  10
Iola            87  69  86  65 /  70  80  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    88  70  87  67 /  70  80  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham



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