Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS63 KICT 202347
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The surface front has slowed down and pretty much stalled out
near the Kansas turnpike. Limited low-level convergence combined
with stout cap aloft should prevent convection from developing
even with high instability for locations along and east of the
front for this afternoon/evening. Would expect storms to fire
further northeast in Iowa for this afternoon then gradually zipper
back to the southwest along the front for tonight, as moisture
transport increases towards the edge of the cap aloft. We could
see a few storms try and develop over eastern Kansas late tonight
but even those chances will be on the lower end.

The surface front will migrate back northward as a warmfront on
Thursday with hot and windy conditions expected for Kansas. Above
normal temperatures and gusty south winds will continue for the
central plains on Friday and Saturday, as a upper trough digs in
over the western states.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Long range models continue to show a slow eastward progression of
the deep upper trough axis for Sunday into next week with rich
gulf moisture streaming north ahead of this system. This setup by
the models favors a prolonged period of widespread showers/storms
beginning on Saturday across the high plains, then gradually
spreading eastward into central Kansas by Sunday night. The rain
chances would be quite favorable with this pattern across
central/eastern Kansas on Monday and Tuesday. Especially given the
slow movement of this deep trough combined with healthy dynamics
from the upper jet, and higher than normal moisture content in the
atmosphere across the region. This could generate some heavy
rainfall for parts of the Heartland if model signals remain on
track with the latest solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Cannot rule out an isolated shower/thunderstorm this evening and
overnight over eastern KS, as a stalled frontal boundary currently
situated along the KS Turnpike corridor retreats back northwest.
However, chances are pretty low given no upper forcing and a
stout cap in place. Otherwise, the big story will be the rapidly
increasing southerly winds by Thursday morning, with gusts
approaching 30 kts by late morning/early afternoon, in response to
deepening low pressure across the High Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  94  72  91 /  10  10  10   0
Hutchinson      69  95  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          72  94  71  90 /  10  10  10   0
ElDorado        75  93  72  89 /  10  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  93  72  90 /  10  10  10   0
Russell         59  97  73  92 /   0  10  10   0
Great Bend      60  97  72  91 /   0  10  10   0
Salina          69  97  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
McPherson       68  95  72  91 /  10  10  10   0
Coffeyville     74  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
Chanute         74  90  71  89 /  20  10  10  10
Iola            73  90  70  88 /  20  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  90  72  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.