Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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559
FXUS63 KICT 181741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1141 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Active weather pattern setting up, especially this weekend into
next week. Mostly above normal temperatures are expected through
early next week, with a return to near/below normal temperatures
mid to late next week.

Despite increasing mid and upper level clouds, thinking patchy
dense fog is possible through mid to late morning over far
east/southeast KS, in close proximity to low-level ridge axis and
moist low-levels. Otherwise, upper system approaching from the
south will run out of steam as it continues north this morning,
but enough lift/saturation should still be present for a few
showers/sprinkles generally west of I-135 this morning into early
afternoon.

Deepening low-level moisture advection will support widespread
low clouds and fog developing overnight, with areas of drizzle
generally along/east of the Flint Hills. Thinking this could
linger well into Thursday and even Thursday night.

Quick hitting upper system will give a glancing blow to the
forecast area Friday-Friday night, with a chance of light
precipitation over mainly northern KS. Any amounts should remain
light.

Temperature-wise through Saturday, above normal temperatures are
expected, with daytime highs climbing into the 50s to low 60s
Friday and Saturday, warmest over SE KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Another more substantial system is expected to affect Mid-
America Saturday night-Sunday. While there remains some
uncertainty, model consensus and GFS ensembles suggest greatest
chance for precipitation will be over southern Kansas and/or
Oklahoma. Given available lift and moisture, meaningful rainfall
greater than one- quarter inch appears likely somewhere across
northern Oklahoma and/or southern KS. Additionally, may see a
changeover to a wintry mix on the backside of the system, but
accumulations appear minimal at this time given marginal/too warm
thermal profiles. Exact location of storm track will come into
better focus the next few days.

Another decent storm system is possible across Mid-America
sometime Monday night through Wednesday. While model
spread/uncertainty remains fairly high this far out, overall
synoptic pattern consensus favors meaningful precipitation
somewhere across the region. Current consensus support plowable
snow during this time period across northern KS and NE, but things
could definitely change since this is so far out in the future.
Stay tuned.

Temperature-wise, continued above normal temperatures expected
Sunday through Tuesday, with high confidence in a return to near
to below normal temperatures mid to late next week in wake of the
storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

7-10 kft clouds will linger through the day with a few sprinkles
possible, otherwise VFR will prevail through early evening. Low
level moisture is progged to return northward across the area
tonight as a slow moving storm system lifts over the region with
the biggest impacts anticipated across southeast KS where drizzle
and fog will become widespread after 03-05z likely lowering flight
categories at KCNU. As we move west, low cigs and visibilities
will also be possible within a moist low level southeasterly flow
regime with flight categories lowering after 05-07z at most
locations. Low temperatures will remain above freezing across the
forecast area while low cigs and visibilities linger into the
morning hours on Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  41  53  40 /  20  10  10  10
Hutchinson      52  40  50  38 /  30  10  20  10
Newton          51  40  51  40 /  20  10  10  10
ElDorado        53  41  54  41 /  10  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   53  42  55  40 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         50  39  46  35 /  30  10  20  10
Great Bend      50  39  46  34 /  40  10  20  10
Salina          52  39  50  39 /  20  10  20  20
McPherson       52  40  50  38 /  20  10  20  10
Coffeyville     54  43  57  43 /  10  10  10  10
Chanute         53  42  55  42 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            53  41  54  42 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    53  42  56  43 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM



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