Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161745
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Relatively quiet weather anticipated as surface ridge moves east
and return flow continues to develop throughout the period. This
will bring a slow increase in temperatures and winds. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Relatively good agreement with GFS/ECMWF throughout this period.
Northern stream wave moving across Northern Plains will push
surface front close to or just into northern sections of forecast
area Wednesday night-Thursday. Relatively dry airmass and lack of
upper support will preclude precipitation. Return flow will
continue to increase on Friday with resultant increase in
moisture on Friday and Saturday. Raised lows some Friday night
given increasing low level moisture and brisk winds. Lows could
still be another 4-5 degrees warmer based on pattern verification
guidance. GFS may be a bit agressive with precipitation breaking
out Friday night well in advance of front. Better chances would
likely be Saturday afternoon/evening along the cold front.
Clearing moves in quickly on Sunday as surface highs builds into
the region. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Excellent weather continues for all areas thru Tue afternoon &
likely beyond. A surface trough situated along the Front Range
will slowly force large high pressure east across the lower MS
Valley tonight to induce southerly winds to be sustained ~15kts
across Central & South-Central KS throughout the afternoon &
likely this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  45  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      70  46  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          69  46  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        68  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   68  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         73  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      72  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          72  48  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       71  47  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     68  44  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         67  43  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            67  43  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  43  71  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS



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