Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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497
FXUS63 KICT 021113
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
513 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Today-Saturday:
Little change from previous forecast as temperatures will be at
or above normal again today. Clouds however will be on the
increase. Precipitation is expected to spread across the border
from OK this evening into South Central KS, but precipitation is
not expected for the bulk of the area until after midnight.
Thermal profile suggest some rain/snow mix roughly as far south as
Highway 400, with predominately snow in Central KS. Accumulation
is expected to be less than a quarter inch in Central KS.
Rain/snow line is expected to shift rapidly north Saturday
morning. The clouds and precipitation will likely keep
temperatures in the 40s on Saturday.

Sunday:
Temperatures will make modest recovery back into the 50s on
Sunday with clearing and downslope flow. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Uncertainty remains high with models still struggling with pattern
change during this period. Give the strong jet and cold air
advection currently feeding into Western US trough, and high
likelihood that a closed low will develop in Mexico, timing of
ejecting wave is problematic. 0000 UTC runs appear about 12 hours
slow than previous runs, and this still may not be slow enough.
The track of a potentially potent baroclinic zone continues to
waffle. This could be the first significant winter storm, or not.
Will just have to wait and see. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 507 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

VFR will prevail through the day and into the evening hours with
light and variable winds anticipated across the area. Ceilings
will being to lower as a storm system moves over the Southwest
States slowly approaching the area. Light rain and sprinkles
may try to mix with light snow during the early morning hours on
Sat...especially across portions of central KS while temperatures
should support mainly rain over much of south central and
southeast KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  37  44  35 /   0  30  30  50
Hutchinson      50  34  43  31 /   0  30  30  40
Newton          50  34  43  33 /   0  20  30  40
ElDorado        51  37  44  35 /   0  20  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   53  40  46  36 /   0  40  40  50
Russell         47  28  41  26 /   0  20  30  20
Great Bend      49  30  41  27 /   0  30  30  30
Salina          48  30  43  30 /   0  10  30  40
McPherson       49  33  42  31 /   0  20  30  40
Coffeyville     54  40  48  39 /   0  30  40  50
Chanute         52  37  46  37 /   0  20  30  50
Iola            51  35  45  37 /   0  10  30  50
Parsons-KPPF    53  39  47  38 /   0  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM



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