Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220822
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT SOME TERMINALS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE KHUT AND KICT TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  50  50  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  40  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  75  57 /  30  50  10  10
RUSSELL         78  51  74  54 /  50  50   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  50  50   0   0
SALINA          79  56  75  55 /  50  60   0   0
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /  50  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     77  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  54 /  20  50  30  10
IOLA            76  57  75  54 /  20  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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