Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170805
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief cool down today and Monday.

- Mild temperatures mid week with decreasing chances for rain Wed-
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Current satellite imagery shows a very convoluted pattern.  This
strongly indicates a very slow moving pattern keeping weather
conditions rather stable across the region.  This will allow a cold
front to continue to progress into the southern Mississippi Valley
with decent CAA behind it.  The high pressure system supporting the
cold air is powerful for this time of year.  Most deterministic
models and some of the ensembles are indicating temperatures for
today and Monday could be a significant amount below normal.  The
main problem with this solution is the current position of the core
of the cold air is in northern Saskatoon Canada, which is too far
north and east to bring that type of air into the CWA.  This is
likely due to the current, very complex weather pattern, slowing the
progression down to the point the coldest air moves just too far
east to affect the CWA.  That said, still expect some cooler
temperatures today and Monday and as they are likely to be below
normal for this time year.  Moisture advection is practically non-
existent keeping the precipitation chances down for through Monday.

Tuesday through the end of the week will start off warmer as some
ridging will be pushing into the region.  Monday night and into
Tuesday.  This will bring strong WAA back to the region along with
some moisture advection.  This will result in Tuesday being much
warmer than Monday with temperatures being a decent amount above
normal for this time of year.  Wednesday, will be continued warm but
not warmer than Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday, the
forecast becomes tricky once again.  Moisture advection will
continue through this period but ensembles appear to be trending
away from a significant rain for the CWA.  Most of the models are
showing a frontal system coming into the region Wednesday night
increasing the chances for showers or thunderstorms. Orientation of
this system does not lend itself to severe storms so at this point,
severe thunderstorm chances are low (15%).  The past several
forecast runs have pushed the axis of the expected moisture further
and further south and is now focused on the Kansas and Oklahoma
state line.  If this trend continues, it is possible the rain
chances will be pushed further south and out of the CWA. Due to
these uncertainties, confidence in the forecast beyond Tuesday is
very low (10%) and will need to see further forecast cycles before
confidence can increase.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period.

Mid/high clouds will continue over southern KS tonight with
northerly winds. North winds will turn gusty across the area
during the afternoon hours tomorrow, and will diminish by early
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Fire danger conditions will be kept in check today and Monday
despite the higher winds.  The lower temperatures will keep
Grassland Fire Danger in the high category across the region.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...KMB
FIRE WEATHER...ELM


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