Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 292001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN HINDERED DUE TO
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL ALLOW SOME SURFACE
HEATING TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WITH LESS THAN FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ALOFT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW. ALSO WE WILL TRIM
OFF WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE FLOOD WATCH AND KEEP IT CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR TONIGHT...WHERE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY NEW
FLOODING COULD OCCUR. MEANWHILE...A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH COOLER BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE WORKING NORTHWARD SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND FORCED INTO A 700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER
DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SLOWLY EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION WHICH HAS NOT OCCURRED IN SOME TIME. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR KANSAS WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER
MODELS DO SHOW AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE EPISODES
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY
DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS
MID-AMERICA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AN MCV IS AFFECTING EASTERN OK/SE
KS AND IS KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND. AM EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS FOR KCNU. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ISO-SCT STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE AREA AFTER 00Z. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE
WILL JUST RUN WITH VCTS AS THIS TIME. SOME MUCH NEEDED DRIER AIR
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR SAT WHICH WILL PUSH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  71  52  76 /  30  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      57  71  50  76 /  20  10   0   0
NEWTON          55  69  51  76 /  30  10   0  10
ELDORADO        59  70  52  75 /  30  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  72  53  75 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELL         53  70  46  78 /  30  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      53  70  47  78 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          56  70  48  77 /  30  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       55  70  50  76 /  20  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     62  71  55  74 /  70  10   0  10
CHANUTE         61  71  55  73 /  60  10   0  10
IOLA            61  70  55  73 /  60  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  72  55  73 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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