Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 290237
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
937 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING ON
SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. LASTLY...MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND IS GENERATING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN KS/OK. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GONNA SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ANOTHER COUNTY ALONG INTERSTATE
70 TO THE FROST ADVISORY.  PORTIONS OF SALINE COUNTY MAY SEE TEMPS
DROP INTO THE 33-35 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
FROST ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRIME
RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPS AND FROST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH A FROST ADVISORY
OVER A FEW CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 33-35 DEGREE
RANGE. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY KIND OF KILLING
FREEZE.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR WED WITH MODELS
AGREEING ON SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH A MUCH
STRONGER VORT MAX DIVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO COME OUT OF IT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THIS
WILL HAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SPILL SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WHICH REALLY ISN`T
TOO FAR OFF OF SEASONAL NORMALS. FRI NIGHT MAYBE OUR FIRST SHOT AT
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE NOT GOING FOR
A KILLING FREEZE...WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE FOR A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES.

BY SAT MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON THE SHORTWAVE
COMING ON SHORE OVER CA WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING OUT IN TWO
PIECES. ONE WILL LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION SLIDING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE EXPECT WARMING TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL
HIGHS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE AS A
WEAK FRONT STALLS OUT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL OK. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST KS WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT DECENT
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS FALLING OFF QUICKLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  70  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      36  70  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  69  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         33  71  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      35  70  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          35  69  43  68 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       36  69  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  69  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            39  67  43  67 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    39  68  42  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>049.

&&

$$



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