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000
FXUS63 KICT 181111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

INITIAL FOCUS IS SMALL MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. VARIOUS MODELS
ARE GIVING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...EVERYTHING FROM DENIAL TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY.
HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING. IT SUGGESTS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE JUST
ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA MID MORNING...HOWEVER
IT BLOWS UP MORE CONVECTION ALONG THIS OUTFLOW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT UNREASONABLE...BUT GIVEN
VERIFICATION TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ON WEAKER CONVECTION...
WILL SEVERELY LIMIT BOTH AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS FOR NOW...AND
LET DAY SHIFT TWEAK AS WARRANTED.

STILL APPEARS TO BE DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TO CLIP AT LEAST WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT IF
STORMS ARE NOT ALREADY ONGOING IN CENTRAL KS. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WITH ONSET /POSSIBLE ROUND TWO/
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS ALL SUGGEST FAIR CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AREAS WIDE WED/WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THU IN
SOUTHEAST KS. HIGHS ON WED/THU WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED FROM
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. HAVE TWEAKED /MOSTLY UP/ INITIALIZATION
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT VERIFICATION DURING THE LAST WARMUP.
DGEX/ECMWF AND SURPRISINGLY GFS MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS
OUTPERFORMED VARIOUS INITIALIZATION BLENDS IN THE EXTEND PERIODS
OF THE LAST WARMUP. HAVE OPTED TO NIX PRECIPITATION ON MON GIVEN
FAIRLY LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON BOTH 500MB FLOW
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATION.  -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR OTHER TAF SITES...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND MID-MORNING
WITH MORE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 LATE TONIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  66  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      86  66  84  69 /  10  20  30  30
NEWTON          85  64  83  68 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        84  65  83  70 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  66  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         85  65  85  66 /  20  30  30  40
GREAT BEND      84  65  84  67 /  10  30  30  40
SALINA          86  67  85  71 /  10  20  30  40
MCPHERSON       85  65  84  69 /  10  20  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     85  66  85  71 /  10  10  20  20
CHANUTE         85  64  85  69 /  10  10  20  20
IOLA            85  65  84  70 /   0  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  65  85  70 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$