Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

534
FXUS63 KICT 042338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS
SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING PROGRESSES EAST OVER MID-AMERICA.
INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW 80S GENERALLY WEST OF I-135 THURSDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO BOOST READINGS WELL INTO THE
80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SUPPORTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A MODEST RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE FIRST OF A
HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVES EMANATING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS. THINKING HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN KANSAS CLOSEST TO GREATEST
COMBO OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY...BUT ACTIVITY COULD TRICKLE
INTO MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY-MONDAY...AS A FEW MORE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EJECTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS...INTERACTING WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. A PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE QUALITY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STUNTED DUE TO
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF THE DRYLINE
BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY. THIS ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED COMBO OF
FORCING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. IF
QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

STORMS AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS THE THIRD LOBE OF UPPER
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE WEATHER WL BE EXCELLENT THRU THU NGT & LKLY BYD W/ CRYSTAL CLR
SKIES & UNLIMITED VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  79  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      43  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          45  78  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        44  78  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  78  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         43  83  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      44  82  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  80  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       43  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     44  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            44  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    44  76  49  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.