Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220809
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
309 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Strong shortwave continues to make progress across most of SE KS at
this time. Wraparound showers/drizzle to the north-NW of the
shortwave in the trowal axis will continue to shift slowly east for
the morning hours, with precip winding down during the late morning.
Could see some drizzle for the morning hours, just to the west of
the main vort center, so will include this mention in the
grids/zones for the morning hours. but the threat of heavy rainfall
has come to an end, with some lingering low land flooding and a few
river flood warnings, in SE KS, so will cancel the rest of the flood
watch with this issuance.

With the rain ending, expect a coolish weekend with gradual clearing
from west to east this afternoon, with clear skies tonight through
Sun, as a weak upper level ridge moves across the area with north-
northeast surface flow.

Main surface ridge axis looks to move across the forecast area on
Sunday morning, which may lead to some patchy frost over Central
Kansas, given low temps expected to be in the middle 30s.  But
expect a pleasant weather day on Sunday with light winds and
moderating seasonal temps.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Zonal flow will lead to dry and warm conditions for the start of the
work week. Low level moisture will be slow to return, with a weak
shortwave moving across the northern plains, leading to a cold front
sagging south across the area for Tue. Not expecting alot of shower
activity along the front as it pushes south, as better moisture will
remain to the south of the area. Low level moisture does finally
begin to overrun the front by Tue night, which suggests a post
frontal overrunning shower chance for most locations as the front
pushes into OK.

Medium range models suggest the flow pattern will gradually shift to
more of a W-SW flow pattern by the middle of next week, which will
lead to thunderstorm chances increasing for Wed/Thu as low level
moisture quality improves. Moisture transport and isentropic lift
increases by Thu morning for a widespread shower and embedded
thunderstorm chance with warm advection.  A rather significant
shortwave looks to move out of the Rockies on Thu afternoon/evening,
with an unstable airmass for a potential severe storm chance.  Given
the shear and instability, all facets of severe weather may exist by
Thu Eve, especially over srn KS. stay tuned.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Main aviation concern will be some lingering MVFR ceilings.

Water vapor imagery continues to show upper impulse tracking over
eastern KS. Wrap around rainfall will continue to impact eastern
KS for the rest of tonight with KCNU-KSLN having the best chance
to see something more than just VCSH. This wave looks to be moving
faster than previously thought with most of precip out of area by
sunrise, with the exception of KCNU where precip may linger a bit
longer. Will hold onto some MVFR ceilings at a few sites for the
next few hours, but should see mostly VFR conditions by 09z.
Should also start to see some sun by early Sat afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  38  67  46 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      59  37  68  47 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          58  37  66  46 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        58  38  67  46 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   56  38  68  46 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         61  36  70  49 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      59  36  69  49 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          61  38  69  49 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       59  37  67  47 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     54  39  68  44 /  30  10   0   0
Chanute         55  39  67  44 /  40  10   0   0
Iola            56  38  67  44 /  50  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    54  39  68  44 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL



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