Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202011
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TONIGHT-THU NIGHT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S.
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS PRECIP FREE FOR THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BUT ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER
EXTREME SE KS WHERE A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT MAY SPARK A
FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ACROSS SE KS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED STORM MENTION FOR THIS AREA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN RACE NORTH
INTO SRN NEB TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY OVERNIGHT STORM
DEVELOPMENT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD ALSO SEE
SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF KS LATER THIS EVENING...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA WILL PROPAGATE TO THE NE INTO SRN NEB.  COULD SEE THIS
AREA SKIRT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL KS...BUT THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
STAY OUT OF THE AREA AS WELL.

THE WARM TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MORE OF THE HOT
LATE SUMMER TEMPS FOR THU AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP MOST OF THU DRY AS
WELL...AS CAP LOOKS TO HOLD TIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PLAN ON KEEPING SOME SMALL POPS IN FOR CENTRAL KS FOR THU EVENING...
AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS NW KS....AS MID LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF SW FLOW.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH PLAINS POSSIBLY PROPAGATING
INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THU EVENING.  NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS
WILL PROPAGATE LATE THU NIGHT AS THEY WILL RUN INTO MORE STABLE AIR
THE FURTHER EAST THEY GO.

COULD ALSO SEE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT VEER TO THE EAST LATE
THU...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 315K ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING
OVER THE NORTHEAST EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI MORNING. SO
WILL GO WITH A LOW POP INTO FRI MORNING FOR AREAS BETWEEN KSLN AND
KCNU.

FRI-SAT: THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LOOKS TO
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SW FLOW OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE PLAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF ON HOW FAR EAST THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK IMPULSES IN THIS SW FLOW WILL
BUMP THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR FRI INTO SAT....WHICH
WILL LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS FOR FRI/SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE BETTER PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA
FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT.  SO WILL INCREASE POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KS FOR SUN NIGHT...AS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE IN
THE SW FLOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY
OUT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MON-WED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN AREA NEAR KCNU DUE TO
AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES. VCTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
THE VICINITY OF KRSL AS A SYSTEM OUT WEST SPARKS A FEW STORMS AND
THEY MAY MIGRATE INTO TEH NC SECTIONS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN.

CHANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  99  77  97 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      76  99  76  99 /   0  10  20  10
NEWTON          75  98  76  97 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        76  99  77  98 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  99  77  97 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         73  98  74  97 /  10  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      75  98  74  97 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          76  99  77  99 /   0  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       76  99  76  98 /   0  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     74 100  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         74  99  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            74  98  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  99  76  97 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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