Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 011652
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AT LATE MORNING...SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF A
KHUT-KCNU LINE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER MISSOURI EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LOW WAS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF KCNK WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WHILE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY
PERCOLATE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
400...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS ALONG EITHER THE REMNANT
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY AND/OR THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WHICH HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY EAST OF THE ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS. STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
MESO BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE 35 TO 40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. STORMS WITH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY HINGE ON MAINTENANCE/ORIENTATION OF THE MESO BOUNDARY AND
WHETHER A STORM CAN BECOME ANCHORED AND MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS CONDITIONAL RISK WILL BE REINSERTED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. ISOLATED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH RISK WILL MAINLY
BE STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWN-BURST WIND GUSTS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
MCSS OVER WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAILING MCS TO CLIP FLINT
HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS.  ANTICIPATING THE MCS WILL LAY OUT/REINFORCE
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY NEAR NE BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. WITH
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT DRYING
LOW LEVELS ...SUSPECT INITIATION WILL OCCUR AT TRIPLE POINT MID
AFTERNOON...SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY IN A KC-CNU-SGF TRIANGLE. COMBO OF
CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW
FAR WEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP GIVEN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR
AND MARGINAL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE FRONT. WESTERN EDGE MAY BE
I-35...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY CLOSER TO EASTERN EDGE
OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE VICINITY OF AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. STORMS CHANCES IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED
THIS EVENING...BUT UNCLEAR HOW LONG MCS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL JET TO OVERRUN THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THU-THU NIGHT:
ONE OF THE MORE CHALLENGING DAYS...WITH A LOT RIDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION WED NIGHT. THINKING TRIPLE POINT COULD BE IN CENTRAL
KS...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPING AND DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL SHADE
POPS HIGHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ON THU WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT ODDS
FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND/OR COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT.

FRI:
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH
GFS FASTER/STRONGER THAN ECMWF. THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION ON
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE/FRONT WOULD BE...BUT SHORTWAVE TRACK/WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WOULD FAVOR HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS PERIOD. OVERALL THEME IS
STILL A BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...AND TRANSITION INTO BROAD
ZONAL FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS IS QUITE LOW...LET
ALONE MODEL QPF WHICH DRIVES INITIALIZATION GRIDS. ONCE AGAIN
TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONG 850-700MB ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SO LEFT VCSH MENTION OUT OF
CNU TAF. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT ICT-HUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT CAP STRENGTH WILL
SUPPRESS MOST ACTIVITY. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES EXIST AT CNU
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDED VCTS THERE
FROM 00Z ON.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   101  73  89  68 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON     100  70  86  66 /  10  10  40  40
NEWTON          99  71  86  66 /  10  20  30  40
ELDORADO        99  71  88  67 /  20  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD  100  73  93  68 /  20  30  30  50
RUSSELL         98  69  84  65 /  20  10  40  30
GREAT BEND      99  69  85  65 /  10  10  40  30
SALINA          97  70  84  66 /  30  10  40  30
MCPHERSON       98  70  85  65 /  20  10  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  74  91  68 /  30  40  20  40
CHANUTE         94  72  88  68 /  30  50  30  40
IOLA            94  71  86  67 /  40  50  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    96  73  90  68 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.