Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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142
FXUS63 KICT 272030
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
330 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Forecast challenges/highlights will be thunderstorm chances
through Thursday evening, and again Saturday night/Sunday through
early next week.

Tonight...Scattered thunderstorms across eastern KS this morning
into the afternoon was/is being driven by 800-600mb warm/moist
advection on eastern edge of approaching elevated mixed layer and
associated pool of instability. This activity should gradually die
out by late afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, expecting a
large thunderstorm complex or two to roll east off the High Plains
across NE and far northern KS overnight, as shortwave energy
approaches from the west. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central and east-central KS after 11pm. However, given
warmer 700mb temperatures and associated stout capping, severe
threat will be confined to far northern KS and NE.

Wednesday...A few non-severe showers/storms should linger into
the morning across portions of central and east-central KS.
Otherwise, a trailing weak frontal zone is expected to stall
somewhere across central KS Wednesday afternoon. Convergence is
expected to be weak and upper support almost non-existent, so only
expecting the potential for a few isolated storms along the front
if capping can be overcome. If storms can form, ample instability
and modest shear will support severe weather in the form of large
hail and damaging winds. Tornado threat will be low given
marginal shear and high cloud bases. Given lack of large scale
support and increasing inhibition, thinking this activity should
dissipate by late evening or midnight. Attention then turns to a
potential thunderstorm complex Wed night mainly along/north of
I-70, as activity rolls east off the High Plains. Severe weather
in the form of damaging winds is possible with this activity.

Thursday...The greatest potential for more widespread/numerous
storms is Thursday afternoon-evening, as a potent shortwave and
associated strong cold front approach from the west/northwest.
Ample instability and deep layer shear will support severe weather
with large hail and damaging winds, along with locally heavy
rain. Thinking tornado threat will be low given high cloud bases
and strong linear forcing, although one cannot be ruled out
especially early on if there are outflow/boundary intersections.
Magnitude, placement and extent of Wed night thunderstorms will
likely have a big impact on placement of Thursday`s cold front and
associated thunderstorm chances. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Friday-Saturday...Expecting quiet/tranquil weather in wake of the
cold front, with a cool down into the 80s and dewpoints dropping
into the 50s-60s.

Sunday-Tuesday...Periodic thunderstorm chances should enter back
into the forecast sometime Saturday night/Sunday and persist into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Aviation concerns will be wind shear overnight along with storm
chances.

What is left of early morning elevated convection is still slowly
making its way across parts of the Flint Hills. These are not
expected to impact any TAF sites this afternoon. Robust upper wave
will approach the northern Rockies today and out into the
northern Plains this evening. This will allow low pressure to
strengthen over the high Plains which will bring a low level jet
to the region overnight. Will run with some low level wind shear
overnight with winds just off the surface gusting to 40-50kts.
Wind shear should subside by 15z Wed.

Storms are expected to develop over western Nebraska and possibly
down into NW KS this evening and track east and southeast
overnight. Some of this activity may try and flirt with north and
northeast portions of the forecast area, but confidence is not
high enough at this point to insert into TAF`s. Storm chances will
be much better over northeast KS/southern Nebraska and northern
MO overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  94  72  94 /  20  20  10   0
Hutchinson      73  96  71  94 /  20  20  20  10
Newton          72  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  10
ElDorado        71  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  93  73  93 /  10  10  10   0
Russell         73  96  69  94 /  30  10  30  10
Great Bend      73  96  69  94 /  30  10  30  10
Salina          74  96  72  95 /  30  20  30  20
McPherson       73  95  71  94 /  30  20  20  20
Coffeyville     69  91  72  91 /   0  10  10   0
Chanute         70  90  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            70  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  90  72  91 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL



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