Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 280852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
CONVECTION. STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
REGENERATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU
GETTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT
LEAST OFF AND ON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  50  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  50  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  60  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  60  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  60  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.