Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS63 KICT 192016
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper trough swinging across the
northeast CONUS with a southern stream impulse approaching
southern NM. At the surface, a very moist airmass is in place
across the southern Plains into southern KS with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s. A weak convergence zone is setup south of I-70
in the Flint Hills where a couple storms have developed.

With an extremely unstable airmass and a weak boundary, should
see a storm or two continue over eastern KS into the early evening
hours. Meanwhile, the more widespread convection should occur
over southern Nebraska/northern KS tonight as afternoon high
Plains convection rolls southeast aided by increasing 850-700mb
moisture transport. Some of this activity my skirt locations along
and north of I-70 tonight with some of it lingering across
eastern KS Sun morning.

Another warm muggy day is expected Sun with current thinking the
mid to upper 70 dewpoints remain over southeast KS. Should see
another MCS Sun night along the baroclinic zone which will be
situated over Nebraska. Just like tonight, some of this activity
may try and flirt with northern portions of our forecast area
with the better chances northeast of the forecast area. Still good
model agreement that unseasonably strong shortwave energy will
track across the northern Plains and into the northern Mississippi
Valley Mon and into the Great Lakes Mon night. This will allow a
strong cold front to start pushing south. At the same time,
southern stream impulse approaching NM, will lift out across
western KS Mon-Mon evening. All of these features will combine to
produce widespread convection along the front Mon evening through
Tue morning. By Tue evening the front south be south of our
forecast area with much cooler and drier air spilling into KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

By Wed afternoon, deep upper trough will stretch from Quebec into
the northeast CONUS with nw flow aloft over the Plains. This will
keep well below normal temps in place through the work week along
with dry conditions. Highs Tue-Fri look to be around 10 degrees
below average as they top out in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR conditions at all locations with this forecast package. High
pressure will slide east ahead of an approaching low. This will
pack down the gradients beginning this evening and on Sunday.
Hence, I have brought back gusty southerly winds. I have added
VCTS to KRSL and KSLN as an upper pva pocket slides out of NE and
into NC KS. This should usher shra and tsra into the vicinity. I
don`t anticipate much coverage. This will also bring in a thicker
mid and upper level cloud deck.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    97  74  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
Hutchinson      97  73  97  73 /   0  10  10  10
Newton          95  73  96  73 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        95  73  96  73 /   0  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         96  70  98  72 /  10  30  10  20
Great Bend      96  71  97  73 /  10  20  10  20
Salina          98  72  98  74 /   0  20  10  20
McPherson       96  73  96  73 /   0  20  10  20
Coffeyville     94  74  94  73 /  10  10  10  20
Chanute         92  73  94  73 /   0  10  10  30
Iola            92  73  93  73 /   0  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    93  74  94  74 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ068>072-082-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CWH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.