Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 161753
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- After above normal temperatures today, cooler readings are
  expected for Sunday and especially Monday.

- Return to above normal temps Tue-Fri with shower and storm
  chances increasing for Wed night through Thu night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Currently have upper low situated southeast CA/AZ with a
shortwave trough starting to dig across the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure
is centered over southern KS/OK.

Showers and storms are expected to develop today across the
Southern Plains due to increasing moisture transport and theta-e
advection in the 850-700mb layer. In addition, warm front will
also start to lift north across central/southern TX. Confidence
is high that precip will remain south of the forecast area
today. Downslope and good mixing today will help boost temps
into the mid and upper 60s area wide. Upper trough will continue
to be carved-out tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley
through the Great Lakes region with a strong upper jet still set
to dig down the backside of the trough from Manitoba into the
Northern Plains by Sunday. Upper trough will allow some
anomalously cold air to be pulled down across the Missouri
Valley and parts of the Central Plains on Sunday. Luckily our
forecast area will be far enough southwest to avoid the really
cold air. However, we will still see highs Sun around 10 degrees
below what they will be today. Below normal temps will remain
in place into Mon with highs around 5-10 degrees below seasonal
averages.

By Tue morning, northwest flow aloft will be setup from the
Northern Rockies into the Lower Mississippi Valley with the
closed upper low still churning over AZ. With the help of
downslope, we will return to above normal temps for Tue with
southern portions of our forecast area seeing 70s. Pesky upper
low will finally be on the move Tue night into Wed with good
agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in it moving out into the
Southern Plains on Wed into Wed night. Impressive surge of mid
level moisture will result in showers and storms Wed night into
Thu night and will be our next chance for decent rainfall.
Confidence remains high that above normal temps will remain into
the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Northerly
winds will persist tonight as colder air filters southward
across the area. Some increase in mid clouds is anticipated
with bases in the 7k to 9k ft range impacting southern KS late
this evening through the predawn hours on Sunday. Breezy
northerly winds will continue through the day on Sunday while
VFR prevails across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side for
the next several days.

Even though RH values will be fairly low this afternoon, winds
will remain light out of the west and northwest. Cooler temps
will keep RH values in check for Sunday with winds flipping
around to the north. Dry low levels will again be in place for
Mon but winds will remain light out of the northwest allowing
for safe burning conditions.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...RBL


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