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000
FXUS63 KICT 230439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT
APPROACHING KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK WAVE WILL HELP
TO INDUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE QUESTION COMES IN WHERE
THEY WILL FORM...AND WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE. THE NAM HAS
BACKED OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH IT BRINGS THE MOISTURE AND THINK THIS
IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN HERE AND THE BEST
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SURGE NORTHWARD BY LATE THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND THEN WEST. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

BILLINGS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AND CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. IT DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST. LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE GULF WILL BE OPEN...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT. THUS INDUCING AMPLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY OUT WEST WHERE BEST SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD SOME...HOWEVER...WITH A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR...BEING UNDER THE RIDGE...LARGE COMPLEXES OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH THE EXPECTED
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS A
THREAT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ONE DAY BEING BETTER FOR STORM
CHANCES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THIS BEING A
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR ANY OUTDOOR
EVENTS AS LIGHTENING IS ALWAYS A THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

BILLINGS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS STILL LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. STILL
EXPECTING A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OUR FURTHEST SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE IT UP TO KICT. THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/FAR NORTHEAST KS WILL WORK SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL APPROACH CENTRAL KS. 00Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THESE LOWER CIGS JUST NORTH OF KRSL AND KSLN.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  74  57  76 /  20  20  20  30
HUTCHINSON      52  73  57  76 /  20  20  20  40
NEWTON          51  72  56  74 /  20  20  20  30
ELDORADO        52  73  56  75 /  20  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  74  57  77 /  20  30  20  30
RUSSELL         49  72  56  77 /  20  20  30  40
GREAT BEND      50  72  57  76 /  20  20  30  40
SALINA          51  73  55  77 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       51  73  56  75 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     55  75  57  78 /  20  20  20  20
CHANUTE         53  74  55  76 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            52  74  54  76 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  56  76 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$