Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170538
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Warm above normal temperatures will continue this period across
Kansas with daytime highs in the upper 60s and 70s, as upper level
ridging builds across the central US. Meanwhile next weather system
is currently moving into the eastern Pacific and will dig into the
southwestern states for this weekend. Gulf moisture will begin to
stream northward ahead of this system on Sunday and increase Sunday
night. This looks to generate some elevated showers/thunderstorms
with some instability present aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Models show a upper level trough phased with the southern stream
system moving slowly eastward across the region for early next week.
A scattered line of showers/thunderstorms will be possible for
Monday and Monday night as this system moves eastward. Temperatures
will remain above normal across the Heartland for next week, with
weather pattern showing no signs of colder air pushing southward
anytime soon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Aviation concerns are still expected to remain minimal through the
next 24 hours.

Upper low continues to churn over sw TX and is expected to
continue lifting slowly northeast. By 00z Sat this feature is
expected to be situated over sw OK and headed into the Ozark
region by Sat morning. Still not expecting any precip associated
with this feature with just an increase in mid clouds. So
confidence in VFR conditions remains high through this TAF period.
Will continue with some wind shear overnight for KHUT-KICT-KCNU
with winds increasing quickly just off of the surface.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Grassland fire risk could approach very high levels for Friday
afternoon over southeast Kansas. Otherwise grassland fire danger
levels look to remain lower for this weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    38  71  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      37  71  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          38  70  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        39  70  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   39  71  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         35  72  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      35  71  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          37  72  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       37  71  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     39  70  46  67 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         39  70  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            39  70  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    39  70  46  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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