Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 292015
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ON THE
TAIL END OF THE BETTER FORCING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECENT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MODEST INSTABILITY.
SOME THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER/LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE SOME
RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY-LINE...WHICH COULD
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE PACIFIC WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL JET AIDING INCREASING CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUD COVER FROM FESTERING CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY COULD MUTE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE...THOUGH STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW END SEVERE EVENT. IF MORE SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A HIGHER END SEVERE RISK WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS MOST
PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FOR
NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT PHASING UPPER
TROFS INTO A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH KANSAS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL WARMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL KS LATE
TONIGHT-TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS PM/EVE...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
TSRA ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT RSL...SLN...AND HUT TERMINALS WITH AT
LEAST TRANSIENT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  65  86 /  10  30  50  50
HUTCHINSON      63  84  64  85 /  30  50  60  40
NEWTON          62  82  64  84 /  10  30  60  50
ELDORADO        61  85  65  84 /  10  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  86  66  86 /  10  30  50  50
RUSSELL         62  82  59  81 /  60  60  40  40
GREAT BEND      62  83  60  83 /  50  50  40  40
SALINA          63  83  63  83 /  40  50  70  50
MCPHERSON       63  83  64  84 /  30  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  85 /   0  10  40  50
CHANUTE         60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
IOLA            60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    60  86  63  84 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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