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000
FXUS63 KICT 201725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TSRA CLUSTER HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER SE KS FROM SRN WILSON TO
EXTREME NE COWLEY COUNTY. THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. AS SUCH HAVE FINE-TUNED
POPS/WX/QPF TO ADDRESS THIS FACET OF THE INHERITED FORECAST I.E.
TO CHANGE WX DESCRIPTOR TO "SCT". REMAINDER OF INHERITED FORECAST
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

FOCUS WILL BE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MID-
UPPER JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF
50-65 KT IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN STRONG ENOUGH INSOLATION
OCCURS...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LESSER
THAN SUNDAY PM/EVE...WITH HELICITY AND OTHER TORNADO PARAMETERS
PROGGED TO BE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL
TARGET SOUTHWEST MO INTO EASTERN OK...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST
KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KS...WITH A HIGHER THREAT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. STORM MERGERS
AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE WEATHER
TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END IN THE SOUTHEAST LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT PUSH EAST.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MID-UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO MOVE
EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH
OUT WEST BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD. GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES APPEAR
ON TRACK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A
TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED AT KCNU WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF STORM
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  55  77  55 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      80  53  76  54 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          81  54  76  54 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        82  55  77  55 /  40  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  58  78  55 /  50  50  10  10
RUSSELL         78  50  73  52 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      78  51  74  53 /  20  20  10  10
SALINA          79  53  75  52 /  20  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       80  53  76  53 /  20  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     82  65  79  57 /  70  70  50  10
CHANUTE         82  62  78  56 /  70  70  30  10
IOLA            82  62  78  56 /  60  60  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    82  63  78  57 /  70  70  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$