Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200836
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TODAY-MON:
WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NM CONTINUES TO SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS
CHARACTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND
ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT. THIS WOULD PROMPT A
NE-SW ORIENTED WEAK COLD FRONT TO VENTURE SE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA THAT
SHOULD REACH CENTRAL KS VERY EARLY MON MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST KS LATE
MON AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MEAGER IT SHOULD INCREASE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON & ESPECIALLY TONIGHT & WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA &
WESTERN KS & SPREAD SLOWLY EAST & SE ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT. PATTERN NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO A MINIMAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXISTS ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT. THE SLOW TREK EAST SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH
AMOUNTS LIKELY BY MID-DAY MON. WITH AN UPPER DECK RIDGE AMPLIFYING AS
IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT THE MID-LEVEL
LOW SHOULD WEAKEN THEN PHASE WITH A STRENGTHENING POSITIVELY-TILTED
MID-UPPER WAVE SCOOTING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-UPPER
WAVE WILL SURGE SE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY MON MORNING WHICH WOULD
DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SE OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MON EVENING. AS SUCH
RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO EXIT SOUTH EAST KS LATE
MON AFTERNOON.

TUE & TUE NIGHT:
NICE WEATHER AWAITS ALL AREAS AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID
TO UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WED-THU:
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR THESE PERIODS AS AN
INTENSE(!) UPPER-DECK WAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SURGES EAST
OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUE NIGHT. THIS CHARACTER SHOULD UNDERGO RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SURGES EAST OVER THE ALBERTA/MT BORDER ON WED. THIS
WOULD DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS NEBRASKA & KS WED &
WED NIGHT. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD FIRST ERUPT OVER WESTERN KS
WED AFTERNOON & VENTURE EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE STATE WED
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING FOR THE WESTERN
CORRIDOR WITH THE DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAJOR CONCERN WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WITH MOISTURE INCREASING & SOUTH WINDS ONLY REACHING 15 TO 20 MPH THE
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WOULD BE MINIMAL TODAY. SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE ACTIVITY
OCCURRING ALONG & EAST OF I-135 ON MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  58  73  45 /  40  60  50   0
HUTCHINSON      75  58  74  44 /  50  60  30   0
NEWTON          74  58  73  44 /  40  60  50   0
ELDORADO        75  59  71  46 /  40  70  50   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  59  71  47 /  40  70  50   0
RUSSELL         75  58  75  43 /  50  60  10   0
GREAT BEND      74  57  76  42 /  50  60   0   0
SALINA          79  60  76  44 /  50  60  30   0
MCPHERSON       75  58  74  43 /  50  60  30   0
COFFEYVILLE     79  60  70  50 /  20  80  60   0
CHANUTE         78  59  73  50 /  30  80  60   0
IOLA            77  59  72  50 /  30  80  60   0
PARSONS-KPPF    78  61  72  51 /  20  80  60   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES






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