Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
000
FXUS63 KICT 190804
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
304 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures today with increasing rain
chances across far southern KS Wed evening through Thursday.
- Another round of rain for late Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Water vapor imagery currently shows northwest flow over the
Plains with an upper trough about to depart the Eastern
Seaboard. Meanwhile, an upper low continues to linger over
Southern CA. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the
Arklatex region with a trough from MN into Western Nebraska.
Excellent downslope conditions will result in high temps today
10 to 15 degrees above normal as the top out in the low and mid
70s. Weak surface trough will slide into central KS this
afternoon and will flip winds around to the north and northeast
but is not expected to have an affect on temps. Upper low over
Southern CA will start to slide east tonight into Wed. Rainfall
chances are expected to increase early Wed evening as 850-700mb
moisture transport ramps-up ahead of the upper impulse. Still
looking like the far southern portions of our forecast area will
have the best chance to see rainfall Wed night-Thu, with high
confidence we are not looking at any strong/severe storms or
heavy rainfall. By 00z Fri, upper impulse will be passing over
the Arklatex region and into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Fri
morning.
Northwest flow over the Plains will be short-lived as it
flattens out ahead of our next shortwave, set to move onshore
over the Pacific Northwest by early Sat morning. Mid level
theta-e advection will increase Fri night and will result in an
area of showers developing over the High Plains and moving out
across central KS Sat. There is good model agreement that by 12z
Sun very strong mid/upper southwest flow will be in place from
the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains with a
positively oriented shortwave trough from the Great Basin into
Central/Southern CA, with another impulse across the Northern
Rockies into the Northern Plains. This setup will bring a very
strong low level jet across the Plains and very strong southerly
winds on Sun for the eastern half of KS. A dryline is also
expected to setup across Western KS however, at this time, low
level moisture looks fairly meager. So at this point, not
looking at any kind of widespread daytime convection on Sun and
feel our best storm chances should arrive when the strong cold
front moves through Sun night. The main threat on Sun will
likely be dangerous fire weather conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.
Surface high pressure will remain extended from the Southern
Plains through the Tennessee Valley for today which will allow
for southwest winds and clear skies. A weak surface trough will
move into central KS late this afternoon and will flip winds
around to the north and northeast, but will remain on the light
side.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low until the
weekend.
Even through low levels will remain dry this afternoon, winds
will not be high enough to cause significant fire concerns.
Gusty east and northeast winds will be in place for Wed
afternoon but slightly cooler temps will keep RH values in
check. The next dangerous fire weather day looks to arrive Sun,
when very strong southwest winds will be in place. At this
point, confidence is high that very high grassland fire danger
will be in place on Sun.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...BMB