Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200917
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Forecast highlights focus around the strong storm system
impacting Mid-America through Monday.

Low clouds will continue to fill in across the eastern half of
Kansas this morning, as low-level moisture advects north into Mid-
America. Cannot rule out localized patchy drizzle, but overall do
not think moisture depth will be deep enough for drizzle
widespread drizzle. Additionally, cannot rule out patchy fog this
morning generally west of I-135, along western edge of returning
moisture where airmass has the best chance of radiating out. Not
expecting widespread fog given mixy boundary layer. Otherwise,
relatively mild weather will continue today, with thickness values
supporting highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Moisture depth and low-level lift increase a bit tonight, which
may support patchy drizzle across mainly portions of eastern and
central Kansas. Cannot rule out patchy very light freezing drizzle
late tonight into early Sunday generally northwest of Great Bend
to Salina where temperatures will be near to below freezing, but
not expecting ice accumulation or adverse impacts.

Despite impressive large-scale lift overspreading the forecast
area ahead of a strong shortwave trough, an unfavorable storm
track and a rather dry atmosphere should preclude meaningful or
impactful precipitation for much of the forecast area Sunday-
Monday morning. Continued low-level lift and moistening will
support patchy drizzle Sunday across mainly central/eastern KS.
Strong lift may intercept richer returning moisture just in time
for a few showers/storms across far southeast Kansas Sunday
afternoon-evening, but suspect better chances will remain
east/southeast of the region. For Sunday night-Monday morning,
portions of central and east-central Kansas should see wrap-around
deformation light snow, including communities such as Russell,
Great Bend, Salina and Hillsboro, although accumulations should
remain generally one inch or less. Much higher snow accumulations
are forecast for northwest Kansas and Nebraska.

Very strong and gusty northwest winds are expected Monday in wake
of the departing storm system. Given the pressure gradient and
expected mixing, fully expect a wind advisory will be needed.
Noticeably cooler Monday in the 40s, but not bitter cold.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

After a cool start to the week, medium range consensus supports
another warming trend Wed- Fri, with daytime highs climbing back
into the 50s and possibly 60s. Upper ridging will support fairly
tranquil weather. However, operational runs and associated
ensembles support another deep western/central CONUS trough to
take shape by late next week and into the weekend. While we won`t
speculate on specifics this far out given high uncertainty, the
overall consensus supports another shot at precipitation across
the region by next Friday. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Shallow low level moisture return on the southerly flow will
promote MVFR/IFR stratus and patchy MVFR fog vsbys mainly along
and east of a KSLN-KICT line on Saturday. The higher terrain of
central Kansas is expected to remain VFR until late Saturday
evening when easterly component flow develops as the surface front
sags south into central Kansas.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Very high grassland fire danger is expected Sunday across
southern Kansas, due to above normal temperatures, drying low-
levels and stout/gusty south to southwest winds. Very high
grassland fire danger is also expected Monday, due to very
strong/gusty northwest winds in wake of a departing storm system.
Furthermore, strengthening south winds and warming temperatures
should once again support very high grassland fire danger across
the area Thu-Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  40  59  33 /  10  10  20  20
Hutchinson      57  35  55  31 /  10  10  20  20
Newton          55  39  55  31 /  10  10  30  20
ElDorado        56  42  59  33 /  10  10  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   60  44  62  35 /  10  10  20  10
Russell         54  29  43  29 /   0  20  40  60
Great Bend      56  30  46  29 /   0  10  30  50
Salina          52  33  50  30 /  10  20  40  50
McPherson       55  35  53  30 /  10  20  30  30
Coffeyville     58  47  65  34 /  10  10  40  40
Chanute         56  44  62  33 /  10  20  40  40
Iola            55  43  61  33 /  10  20  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    57  46  63  33 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



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