Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 270012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
612 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE SYSTEM`S TRACK...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PREDOMINATELY LIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND TO LINCOLN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3-8 PM...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-HALF INCH TO ONE INCH.
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
SHIFTS EAST...BUT NO MORE THAN A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
IS ANTICIPATED. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HOWEVER DOES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE LATER TONIGHT...BUT NO MORE THAN ONE-
HALF INCH IS EXPECTED. FURTHERMORE...INTERMITTENT FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING...DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT
AMIDST DRIER MID- LEVELS...WHICH MAY CAUSE PATCHY SLICK SPOTS. FAR
SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID (MAINLY DRIZZLE) DUE TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF CHANGEOVER LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SATURDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT
THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.

AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY IN THE 30S...READINGS SHOULD WARM 5-10
DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S FOR SUNDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS MID-
AMERICA MONDAY...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF KS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
ONE-HALF INCH MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL SPREAD SOUTH MONDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTH. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY AREAS. ACCOUNTING FOR THE
STOUT NORTH WINDS...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DIP BELOW ZERO FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH WITH THIS COLD SNAP...DUE TO LITTLE TO
NO SNOW COVER. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY-FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS THE BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY
EJECTS NORTHEAST. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS SINCE
IT`S NEARLY ONE WEEK IN THE FUTURE...AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST WITH MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION
AT MOST SITES WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS
SHOWING SMALL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. LIMITED FZDZ CHANCES TO A
COUPLE HOURS MAINLY AT ONSET IN CENTRAL KS. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
IN THE MORNING AND THEN BECOME SCATTERED AROUND MIDDAY AT MOST
SITES. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  35  19  40 /  50  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      23  34  18  39 /  50   0   0   0
NEWTON          24  33  19  39 /  50   0   0   0
ELDORADO        27  35  19  40 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  37  19  41 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         18  30  16  37 /  70   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      18  31  16  38 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          22  33  18  39 /  50   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  33  17  39 /  50   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  38  23  40 /  50  40   0   0
CHANUTE         32  37  22  39 /  50  20   0   0
IOLA            32  36  21  39 /  50  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    33  37  21  40 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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