Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 280909
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 08-10Z ACROSS THE AREA
WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY AND PREVAILING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  25  36  22 /  90  70  60  10
HUTCHINSON      27  23  36  21 /  90  70  60  10
NEWTON          26  24  36  20 /  90  80  70  10
ELDORADO        28  25  36  22 /  90  80  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  26  39  23 /  90  60  60  10
RUSSELL         27  21  34  19 /  70  70  50  20
GREAT BEND      27  23  35  20 /  80  70  50  20
SALINA          28  23  34  21 /  80  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       27  23  35  20 /  90  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     31  29  39  25 /  90  80  60  10
CHANUTE         30  27  37  23 /  90  80  80  10
IOLA            29  27  36  22 / 100  80  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  28  39  24 /  90  80  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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