Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



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