Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN IMMEDIATELY WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
MAXIMIZED...HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
PROGGED ONCE AGAIN. ELEVATED PARCELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAKLY
CAPPED WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER
06Z ON TUE. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ON TUE WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THIS WARMING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE COLUMN
INCREASING CINH AND INHIBITING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER CAPPING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW POPS WERE
MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE LOWER CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG
WITH FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER ENERGY IS NOW ROTATING ACROSS THE OZARK
REGION. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR LEVELS. WOULD EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-135. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME FOG. TO GET
THE BALL ROLLING WILL RUN WITH MVFR CLOUD AND FOG LEVELS BUT
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THESE ARE LOWERED WITH LATER
SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
DEEPER. SOME ISO- SCT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WEST OF I-135 AS SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  55  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75  54  77  59 /   0  10  20  10
NEWTON          73  53  75  58 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        72  53  75  57 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  55  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         76  55  77  59 /   0  30  20  20
GREAT BEND      76  55  78  60 /   0  20  20  20
SALINA          75  54  76  59 /   0  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       74  53  76  59 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  54  75  58 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         69  53  74  56 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            68  53  74  56 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  52  75  57 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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