Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 151141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY-WED: AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...WILL SEE A LARGE
DIURNAL TEMP SWING FOR THIS AFTERNOON... AS ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO
RETURN TO THE PLAINS. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO WINDS COMING
AROUND TO THE S-SW WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS WARM ADVECTION RETURNS
TO THE WRN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS CLIMBING ALMOST 30
DEGREES FROM THE COLD LOWS IN THE 20S. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
(SEE BELOW).

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WED AS DRY SW WINDS SHIFT INTO
AREAS ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL
KS...WHICH WILL LESSON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE...AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES/GOOD MIXING MAY LEAD TO WINDS THAT ARE BORDERLINE WIND
ADVISORY FOR WED AFTERNOON.

WED NIGHT-THU: A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL SATURATION WILL
INCREASE INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS LATE WED NIGHT AND FOR THE
WHOLE AREA ON THU. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN CHANCE FOR MOST
AREAS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN
PULL SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
COMING IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN AS THU PROGRESSES. SO WILL CUT
BACK SOME ON THE RAIN/SNOW MIX CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS WITH THE
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE LIQUID
VARIETY.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
NICE SPRING DAY. BUT ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL COME OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FOR A SHOWER CHANCE. COULD SEE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL FOR SAT NIGHT...AS MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE
ACROSS SRN KS.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SO COULD SEE THIS
SHOWER CHANCE LAST INTO SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS...BOTH SUGGEST A SHOWER AND A FEW STORM
CHANCE LINGERING INTO SUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND
AFTER BRIEFLY DECREASING AT SUNSET...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE CAUSING WINDS TO BE STOUT OVERNIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.  DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS GUSTY WIND AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
18 TO 22 PERCENT RANGE.  THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS/LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND DRIED GROUNDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.

THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL TRANSLATE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TO
ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE ON WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO
POSSIBLY EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER VALUES ON WED AS
WELL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  42  73  44 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  41  73  41 /   0   0  10  30
NEWTON          59  42  73  41 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        60  41  72  43 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  42  71  45 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         64  43  67  36 /   0   0  10  40
GREAT BEND      63  42  70  38 /   0   0  10  50
SALINA          63  43  71  39 /   0   0  10  40
MCPHERSON       61  41  72  40 /   0   0  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     61  41  68  44 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         60  40  68  43 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            58  40  68  43 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  40  68  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050.

&&

$$







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