Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS63 KICT 010544
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

A generally benign weather pattern will dominate the region for the
end of the week.  However, light Northerly winds will remain which
will keep temperatures near or just below normal for the most part.
This wind pattern is nicely stacked vertically and will slowly turn
to the West as Friday approaches.  This will keep fair weather in
the region and will allow temperatures for Friday to come up a few
degrees but will remain near normal.  Friday night will be the
warmest as the next system begins to encroach on the region.  Winds
will shift to the South allowing some return flow to initiate
allowing the clouds to return Friday keeping Friday night lows from
getting too cold.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Saturday a strong low pressure system will be developing to the
South.  This system looks to stay to the South of the region.
Normally this set up brings a chance for widespread snow but in this
case, with the lack of a strong high pressure system to the North, a
relatively weak temperature gradient across the CWA. The Southern
portions of the CWA will have some good mid level WAA keeping 850mb
temperatures around +1 to +2 C and 925mb temperatures around +5 C.
This temperature profile strongly supports a drizzle/rain set up for
the Southern portions of the CWA. There are colder temperatures in
the Northern portions of the CWA, cold enough to keep 850mb and
925mb temperatures below freezing which supports snow.  While the
atmosphere appears to support snow, there does not seem to be enough
moisture to allow much if any accumulation. This event also looks
short lived for the most part as the low pressure to the South will
move into MO Saturday night and Sunday and then off to the
Northeast. Winds will kick back around to the Northwest across the
CWA bringing in CAA again and will keep temperatures near or just
below normal.

By Monday night and Tuesday, both the GFS/ECMWF are strongly hinting
at a major push of true polar air to come into the region.  GEFS
plumes, while all over the place for this time frame, also indicate
a significant drop in temperatures.  The big question for this event
will be precip type.  On this, GFS/ECMWF don`t agree and this far
out, it is difficult to get a good handle precip type.  This results
in a low confidence for precipitation after Sunday but rather high
confidence that temperatures will be well below normal starting
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the region as weak surface high
pressure remains in control, with light surface winds and clear
skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    25  51  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      23  50  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          24  49  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        25  50  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   25  53  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         20  48  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      20  48  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          22  49  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       23  49  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     27  52  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         27  50  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            27  49  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    27  51  29  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...CDJ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.