Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 021126
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH COMING ON SHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE
PLAINS FROM THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LEE TROUGHING IS
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONDITIONS TODAY THRU FRI WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TUE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 850MB TEMPS AND
1000-850MB PARTIAL THICKNESSES WOULD AGAIN SUPPORT UPPER 90S OVER
CENTRAL KS WITH MID TO LOW 90S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ON THU LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS. WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SAT
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BY MON MORNING WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL IA
DOWN INTO SW KS. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON LIFTING AN UPPER
IMPULSE OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND ACROSS KS ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES OR EVEN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TODAY...WITH FEW
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD IMPACT AVIATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  71  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      95  71  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          94  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        93  70  93  72 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         98  72  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      98  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          95  72  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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