Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 020528
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES/TRENDS IN ELEVATED CONVECTION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM ALOFT AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH
WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION THOUGH
WEAKER CAP WILL LIKELY RESIDE FOR PARCELS LIFTED CLOSER TO THE
700MB LEVEL WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY OF 300 TO 600 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT. SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT POPS MIDNIGHT-NOON TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE I-135. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH
SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST TO THE FLINT HILLS WITH THE POSITION
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY
AXIS. OTHERWISE...DESPITE THE DIURNAL/AFTERNOON AIRMASS GOING FROM
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...PERHAPS EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER FOR
INTER-OFFICE CONTINUITY WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS ALONG/NORTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS
ADVERTISED WITH MAXS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO
TRANSITION TO PERHAPS A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT TOPPING THE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MAY ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT TO DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SOME
CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ARISES
IN THE ORIENTATION/STRENGTH IN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND POSITION OF
THE SURFACE/FOCUSING FEATURES FOR CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL TRANSITION
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL JUST MAINTAIN
SLIGHT TO MODEST POPS IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE WITH LOW-MID CEILINGS
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THIS COULD IMPACT KCNU...AND HAVE A VCTS
TOWARDS 12Z. CHANCES OF LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT
FOR TERMINALS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND BREEZY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SUNSETS AND DECREASING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  85  67  87 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      65  86  68  87 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          64  84  66  85 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        66  84  68  86 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  85  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         65  86  67  87 /  20  20  40  30
GREAT BEND      65  87  67  87 /  10  10  40  20
SALINA          66  86  68  87 /  20  20  40  30
MCPHERSON       65  86  67  86 /  20  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     64  84  66  86 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         64  83  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            64  83  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  82  66  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.