Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202327
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
627 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Quiet weather expected to continue tonight-Sunday, as low-level
high pressure moves across the Heartland. Light winds, clear skies
and low dewpoints will allow temperatures to reach the upper 30s
across portions of the area overnight, mainly for low-lying and
sheltered areas, which could support isolated patchy frost.
Thinking the greatest chances are central Kansas and points west
and north. Otherwise, sunny skies and light winds will prevail
Sunday with highs in the 70s.

Rain chances increase Sunday night through Monday night across
the region, as a pair of shortwaves approach from the west and
northwest. Limited forcing and instability will likely preclude
widespread precipitation or severe weather Sunday night and
Monday. However, a stronger shortwave and associated cold front
approach from the northwest Monday late afternoon-evening. Given
the degree of forcing in concert with modest instability, could be
looking at a handful of strong-severe storms across mainly
central Kansas Monday late afternoon-evening. Main threat would be
marginally severe hail and 60 mph winds.

Influence of upper trough/cold air aloft should support hit-or-
miss afternoon showers/thunderstorms across the region Tuesday.
Given cold air aloft, main threats would be gusty winds and small
hail. Cooler weather is expected Tue-Wed, with highs in the 60s
and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

A warming trend will commence by Thursday through the weekend,
with highs climbing through the 70s and 80s. Flow aloft turns a
bit more west/southwesterly by Friday through the weekend,
supporting a developing lee trough across the High Plains and
associated increasing Gulf moisture across the region. With
various shortwaves likely progressing through the western CONUS
longwave trough onto the Plains, expecting periodic thunderstorm
chances to increase by Friday evening and persist through the
weekend. While a major outbreak does not appear evident at this
time due to marginal flow aloft, the overall synoptic pattern
would favor at least a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms
during the late afternoon and evening hours Friday through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Some mid level
diurnally driven cumulus will dissipate within the next hour, with
just some mid level clouds drifting by overnight.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  75  55  72 /   0  10  40  40
Hutchinson      41  74  54  72 /   0  10  40  40
Newton          41  73  54  70 /   0  10  40  40
ElDorado        43  74  54  71 /   0   0  30  40
Winfield-KWLD   43  76  54  73 /   0   0  20  40
Russell         38  74  52  73 /   0  10  40  40
Great Bend      40  74  52  72 /   0  10  40  50
Salina          41  74  53  73 /   0  10  40  50
McPherson       41  74  53  71 /   0  10  40  40
Coffeyville     46  75  53  75 /   0   0  10  30
Chanute         44  73  53  73 /   0   0  10  30
Iola            44  73  52  73 /   0   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    45  74  53  74 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Ketcham



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