Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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960
FXUS63 KICT 272329
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Thunderstorms have developed along the dry line this afternoon
across south central and central Kansas as upper-level energy
continues to lift out across the central Plains. With an unstable
atmosphere in place and decent shear, ongoing thunderstorm
activity has become strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The main forecast concerns are severe thunderstorms this evening,
additional chances for thunderstorm activity through the
beginning of the work week, a few storms could be strong to
severe, and the potential to see additional rainfall over already
saturated grounds. The flash flood watch will remain in effect
through Saturday morning given the potential for additional
flooding and/or worsening of ongoing flooding.

As upper-level energy continues to eject out across the central
Plains, expect thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage this
evening. With good instability and decent shear in place, severe
thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds; however, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Tonight as surface low pressure slowly moves eastward across
central Kansas, expect thunderstorms activity to slowly move
eastward as well. Into the late evening/overnight hours, with
lingering instability up to 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt of bulk
shear, severe storms will still be possible. After midnight into
early Saturday morning, thunderstorm activity will begin to
diminish from west to east across the area as large scale lift and
moisture transport will lift into Missouri. With surface low
pressure lifting northeast of the region, the dry line boundary
will become more diffuse and stall out across far southeast Kansas
on Saturday. With ample low-level moisture still in place ahead of
the surface boundary, expect at least moderate instability to
develop across southeast Kansas. Convergence is not outstanding
along this boundary during the late afternoon/early evening;
however, with moisture streaming back northward have included at
least slight chance mentions for thunderstorms across far
southeast Kansas Saturday night. With shear being on the weak end
of the spectrum across southeast Kansas, chances for severe
weather look more favorable south of the border in northern
Oklahoma.

Sunday and Monday chances for thunderstorms will return to much of
the area as multiple rounds of moisture return northward. Although
the shear does not look too impressive, albeit better on Monday
than Sunday, given the unstable, buoyant air mass that will be
overhead at least a few strong storms may be possible during the
end of the weekend/early work week.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

With increasing cloud cover over the region, temperatures look to
remain below normal through the work week. Chance for thunderstorms
will linger across much of the area as well. Models are fairly
consistent with cold front dropping south across the region during
the middle of the work week. Right now, there is some uncertainty
in regards to the actual timing of this frontal passage, with the
ECMWF being a bit more progressive than the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorm and stratus potential tonight.

Quasi-linear north-south oriented thunderstorm complex over
south-central Kansas early this evening, is expected to shift
slowly eastward across the Flint Hills and Southeastern Kansas
this evening, in response to best moisture transport/upper
divergence signal shifting east. Other widely scattered
thunderstorms over west-central through north central Kansas will
persist into mid-late evening, underneath mid-level thermal trough
axis. Best chance for widespread storms will be at the CNU
terminal late this evening, with more isolated to widely separated
storms possible affecting the remaining TAF sites through at least
05Z tonight.

Portions of central/eastern Kansas could see stratus develop
overnight into early Saturday morning with light, very moist
boundary layer flow. IFR would be most likely category where
stratus develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  82  61  84 /  50  10  10  40
Hutchinson      57  81  59  84 /  50  10  10  40
Newton          57  80  60  83 /  60  20  10  40
ElDorado        59  81  61  84 /  70  20  10  40
Winfield-KWLD   60  83  63  85 /  60  10  10  40
Russell         56  79  57  82 /  50  20  10  40
Great Bend      55  80  58  82 /  40  10  10  40
Salina          57  80  59  84 /  60  20  10  40
McPherson       56  80  59  84 /  50  20  10  40
Coffeyville     64  83  63  85 /  60  20  20  40
Chanute         63  82  62  84 /  60  30  20  40
Iola            63  82  62  84 /  60  30  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    63  82  62  85 /  60  30  20  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...JMC



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