Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 211133
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

DURING THE NIGHT THE COLD FRONT MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS.
AS OF 230 AM THE FRONT CURVED FROM CENTRAL MO TO SOUTHEAST KS TO THE
OK PANHANDLE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST KS ALONG THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL KS TO ~75
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TODAY-MON:
TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL RETURN TO KICT COUNTRY AS LOWER DECK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER REACHING THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER MON AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL SCHEDULED
TO DEVELOP FROM MONTANA TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO BORDER ON MON AS THE NEXT MID-UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
FROM MONTANA TO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD INDUCE MODEST SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN & CENTRAL KS BY MON AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER REMAINING THE MORE
DOMINANT CHARACTER THE MOISTURE WOULD BE SHUNTED WELL TO THE WEST ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE.

MON NIGHT-TUE:
WITH A STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MID-UPPER WAVE`S PROGRESS EAST WOULD BE SLOW...LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TO COLORADO/KANSAS CORRIDOR LATE TUE NIGHT. AS SUCH
THE MOISTURE RETURN WOULD BE PROLONGED TO BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-135 MON NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 20143

WED-THU NIGHT:
THE MID-UPPER WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WED & WED NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. AS SUCH
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THESE PERIODS BUT
STABILITY & INSTABILITY LACKING THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO ACHIEVE
EVEN STRONG STATUS.

NEXT WEEKEND:
WITH MASSIVE MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SLOWLY EAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE NE-LIFTING & WEAKENING MID-UPPER WAVE THERE`LL BE A DRY START TO
THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

DRIER/STABLE AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  52  80  58 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  51  78  58 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          78  50  78  57 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        79  49  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  50  78  58 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         77  52  78  57 /   0   0  10  60
GREAT BEND      77  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  50
SALINA          78  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       77  52  77  57 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     78  48  77  55 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         78  48  77  55 /   0   0  10   0
IOLA            77  48  76  55 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    78  48  77  55 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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