Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Above normal temperatures and periodic thunderstorm chances will
highlight the next 7 days.

Thunderstorm activity will remain well northeast of the forecast
area this morning along/north of a stalled frontal zone.
Otherwise, another warm and sunny day expected, with low-level
thicknesses supporting highs 1-2 degrees higher than yesterday`s
readings. Southwest component to strengthening low-level winds
should allow dewpoints to lower a few more degrees today,
especially west of the Flint Hills. Consequently, heat indices
should climb to no higher than 100-102 degrees, so heat headlines
are not expected. Wednesday will likely be the hottest of the next
7 days, with readings likely approaching/exceeding the century
mark for many areas generally west of the Flint Hills. Dewpoints
will stay up in the low 70s over far southeast KS, with lower
dewpoints further west. Heat indices will likely climb into the
100-106 degree range, probably highest over far southeast KS, and
also up near I-70.

Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the region from the
northwest, reaching portions of central/north-central KS by
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Given hot temperatures and decent
convergence, cannot completely rule out a stray thunderstorm
generally along/north of Hutchinson-Emporia Wed evening/night.
Suspect lack of upper support and modest convective inhibition
will preclude widespread activity. The frontal zone is expected to
stall in an east-west orientation across the area Thu and Thu
night. Held onto modest thunderstorm chances given moisture
pooling along boundary and the potential for subtle upper
disturbances traversing the region. The environment will be
characterized by weak shear and modest to strong instability, so a
handful of strong to marginally severe storms are possible.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Continued above normal temperatures are expected this period with
daytime highs mostly in the 90s. Modest thunderstorm chances
arrive for Saturday night through Sunday night, as a seasonably
strong northern CONUS upper trough drives a cold front south into
Mid-America. Medium range operational models along with GFS
ensembles continue to show decent run-to-run and model-to-model
consistency, lending confidence to this scenario.

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites throughout the period. Main
focus is cold front just north of KRSL/KSLN at this time. It is
expected to move back north this morning, with increasing south
flow across the entire area during the day. Some high based
cumulus anticipated along/east of turnpike where 850MB moisture is
a bit higher. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    97  75 100  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      98  75 101  74 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          97  74 100  75 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        95  74  98  75 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   96  75  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Russell        100  74 101  70 /   0   0  10  10
Great Bend      99  74 102  72 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          99  75 103  73 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       98  75 100  74 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     94  74  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         94  74  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            94  74  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    94  74  97  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH



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