Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270835
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
335 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Forecast highlights through the weekend: Meaningful rain/storm
chances late Tuesday through Thursday morning, and possibly again
over the weekend into early next week.

Expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to exit eastern Kansas
early this morning, as a potent shortwave trough exits to the
east. Despite the system exiting, lack of low- level dry air
advection will likely support low clouds lingering well into the
afternoon across generally the eastern half of Kansas. However,
still expecting high temperatures reaching the low-mid 60s most
areas.

The next in a train of storm systems is expected to impact Mid-
America with additional off-and-on widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms from late Tuesday through Thursday morning. Medium
range guidance and associated GFS ensemble members are in good
agreement surrounding the overall timing and evolution of this
system. Given The system`s slower movement and better/deeper
moisture quality (i.e. precipitable waters 200-250 percent of
normal), widespread rainfall amounts throughout the event should
range from roughly 0.50" to 1.50", with locally higher amounts
exceeding 2-3" probable. GEFS QPF plumes support these storm-total
rain amounts. Given overall marginal instability and deep
meridional component of mid-upper flow, widespread severe weather
appears unlikely across Wichita`s forecast area throughout the
event, although a handful of strong to low-end severe storms are
possible, especially over southern/southeast Kansas Tuesday
evening-night, and again Wednesday afternoon-evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The 3rd in a train of storm systems is expected to potentially
impact the region with additional rain/storms this weekend into
early next week. However, confidence on the evolution and timing
of this storm system beyond the Desert Southwest is much more
uncertain, given the large spread between the operational models
and ensemble members. Because of this high uncertainty, only went
with 30-50 percent rain chances for now this weekend into early
next week. Because of these continued rain chances and mostly
cloudy skies, forecast high temperatures will remain on the cooler
side in the 50s-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Showers and embedded thunderstorms should exit southeast Kansas
later tonight, associated with a strong storm system spinning
across Mid-America. Moist low-levels in concert with diurnal
cooling will support IFR to LIFR conditions overnight into Monday
morning. Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR Monday mid-late
morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Breezy east winds may support low-end very high grassland fire
danger across the region Tuesday afternoon. However, suspect the
limiting factor will be increasing cloud cover and marginal
afternoon humidity values in the 40s-60s percent. Otherwise,
periodic rain chances along with cooler temperatures should
support low fire danger levels the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  44  64  53 /  10   0  50  80
Hutchinson      64  43  62  51 /  10   0  60  80
Newton          62  43  61  50 /  10   0  40  80
ElDorado        63  43  63  53 /  20   0  30  80
Winfield-KWLD   65  44  66  56 /  10   0  40  80
Russell         65  43  59  46 /   0   0  80  80
Great Bend      65  43  59  47 /   0   0  80  80
Salina          63  42  62  50 /  10   0  40  80
McPherson       62  43  61  50 /  10   0  50  80
Coffeyville     64  45  69  57 /  30   0   0  80
Chanute         62  44  67  54 /  40   0   0  80
Iola            61  44  65  53 /  40   0   0  80
Parsons-KPPF    63  45  69  56 /  30   0   0  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK


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