Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250822
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Today-Tonight:
Temperatures are expected to edge another degree or two warmer
than yesterday with a slight increase in 1000-850 thicknesses.
Always tough call on dewpoints, but best guidance suggest
dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s over most of
the area. This puts heat indices around 105-107 in Southeast KS,
along with Saline County. Will hoist heat advisory for these
areas this afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday:
Small precipitation chances start Tuesday night in Central KS and
spread south as next front drops south. NAM is still fastest with
front, reaching Harper to Yates Center around 0600 UTC Thursday,
GFS in the middle with front near MPR and the slowest solution is
the ECMWF but it is now only trailing the GFS by about 15-20
miles. Timing Wednesday night will likely be a function of the
extent of precipitation and cold pool strength. Temperatures and
heat indices continue to increase ahead of the front, with highest
heat indices around 105 +/- 2 degrees over the entire area. Will
likely need heat advisory for most locations. Consensus was to let
day shift extend the advisory.

Thursday:
Differences in timing of front play heavily in precipitation
chances on Thursday. Appears likely that front will exit Southeast
KS no later than early Thursday afternoon. Combo of clouds and
cooler temperatures will keep heat indices below advisory
criteria. Not surprisingly, this is faster than forecasts 24 hours
ago. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

An extensive area of high pressure will lead to temperatures at
or below normal throughout the period. There is a small chance of
storms on Saturday night across western sections as storms roll
off the High Plains, otherwise dry conditions are anticipated.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across central/southern Kansas for the
next 24hrs. South winds will increase across the region Tuesday
afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    99  77 102  75 /  10  10  10  30
Hutchinson      98  77 102  73 /  10  10  10  30
Newton          96  76 101  73 /  10  10  10  40
ElDorado        96  76  99  74 /  10   0  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   97  76 101  76 /  10   0   0  20
Russell        101  77 101  68 /  10  20  30  50
Great Bend      99  77 102  70 /  10  20  20  40
Salina         103  79 103  73 /  10  10  30  40
McPherson       97  76 101  72 /  10  10  20  40
Coffeyville     96  75  99  77 /  10   0   0  20
Chanute         97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0  30
Iola            95  74  97  75 /   0   0   0  30
Parsons-KPPF    97  75  98  77 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ049-071-072-095-096-099-100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ


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