Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

..UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

DURING THE NIGHT A BROAD UPPER-DECK TROF WAS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS
IT WAS MOVING E OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CHARACTER WAS BRINGING
A NE-SW ORIENTED COLD FRONT THAT CURVED FROM EASTERN SD...ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA & NORTHWEST KS TO SOUTHERN CO SE TOWARD KICT COUNTRY.
SE OF THE FRONT SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS WERE TEAMING WITH A FAIRLY
DENSE CIRROSTRATUS DECK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG &
SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHILE IN CENTRAL & NORTH-CENTRAL KS TEMPERATURES
WERE SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE STARS OF THE SHOW ARE THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER WAVE & THE SE
MOVING COLD FRONT. THE UPPER WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
SURGES E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS & ENCOUNTERS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY
ACROSS KS...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WELL
DEFINED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS AWAITS. AS SUCH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE EXPECTED TO VISIT AREAS ALONG & SOUTH
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY ALL RAINFALL DEPARTING
THE SOUTHEAST KS PREMISES LATE TONIGHT. NO DOUBT IT WON`T BE NEARLY AS
WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM ~70F IN CENTRAL KS TO ~80F ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS WITH TONIGHT`S LOWS PLUNGING TO ~40F IN
CENTRAL KS WITH UPPER 40S TICKETED FOR THE SOUTHEAST.

TUE-WED NIGHT:
IT`LL BE "CLEAR SAILING" ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS SE ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER-DECK RIDGE MOVES EAST
OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

THERE WILL BE NICE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
DECK WAVE GREATLY AMPLIFIES TO ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS AS IT SURGES E
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FROM WED NIGHT
THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING
OF WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR CNU TERMINAL. FRONT HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN MODELS AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE
THROUGH CNU AROUND 23Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT
OUT MENTION OF VCSH FOR CNU DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS DEVELOP
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS WELL AS LOSS OF HEATING AFTER 02Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  45  67  42 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      74  43  65  39 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          76  43  64  42 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        81  45  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  48  68  43 /  10  20   0   0
RUSSELL         70  39  63  38 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      70  40  63  38 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          75  41  65  40 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       74  42  64  39 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     84  48  69  43 /  30  40  10   0
CHANUTE         82  48  67  42 /  30  40  10   0
IOLA            81  48  66  41 /  30  40  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    83  48  68  41 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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