Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 212331
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING SKY COVER. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE KRSL AND KSLN
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED
WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS NOT HIGH. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
MENTIONS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MENTIONS OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF FORECASTS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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