Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 290242
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DESPITE STRONG CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
SLOW TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL KS FROM
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
IN CONCERT WITH WEAK (BUT ADEQUATE) CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...SAMPLED BY THE 00Z TOPEKA SOUNDING. WHILE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT ALONG THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...WONDERING IF THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL KS...IN ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST 850-700MB
CONVERGENCE. IN EITHER CASE...NO LONGER EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE IA/NEBRASKA
BORDER TO BETWEEN K9K7 & KRSL...TO THE TX PANHANDLE. SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THE AXIS OF GREATEST COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WAS OCCURRING
FROM BETWEEN KSLN & KMHK TO ALONG & JUST W OF I-135/I-35 WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD HIT AROUND 100F. THE MOST HUMID WEATHER RESIDED
E & SE OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE BETWEEN 70 & 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS EVENING:
WITH HEAT INDICES HITTING ~105F IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA THERE
WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

TONIGHT-WED NIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW IS THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT. A CYCLONE
IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SE SASKATCHEWAN. THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES E/NE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WED.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH KICK TO FORCE THE FRONT TOWARD
THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WOULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN FORCING THE FRONT SE. GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL NO DOUBT REFLECT FRONTAL POSITIONING
I.E. FROM NORTHEAST KS...THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH A SHARPENING MID-UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING
DUE N ACROSS QUEBEC THE CYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO SHOULD OCCLUDE
WED NIGHT & DRIFT N OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE COLD FRONT WOULD
DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY WED MORNING.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W MANNER THRU CENTRAL OK. AS
SUCH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD GET SHUNTED TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY (MORE SPECIFICALLY THE PANHANDLES & SOUTHWEST KS).
WITH LOWER-DECK CONVERGENCE DIMINISHING ACROSS MOST OF KS EARLY
WED MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. WED
AS EXPECTED WON`T BE NEARLY AS WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE OK BORDER AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GLIDES E/SE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KS BORDER.

THU-FRI:
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING TOWARD THE KS/MO BORDER ON THU S/SE
FLOW WOULD ENSUE WITH THE LOWER-DECK MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
W TX TO ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. AS SUCH GREATEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS WEEKEND:
PREDOMINANTLY NICE WEATHER IS SLATED AS A MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

NEXT WEEK:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SPREADING N COMBINES WITH INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO &
QUEBEC TO PRODUCE A NW FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF SLN-HUT THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND ANTICIPATE
A TEMPO MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AT HUT AFTER 01-02Z. BRUNT OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF RSL...AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF ICT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY GETTING INTO ICT LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO FESTER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AS
ADVERTISED BY NAM/GFS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  88  69  88 /  30  30  40  20
HUTCHINSON      72  86  67  87 /  40  30  40  20
NEWTON          72  86  67  87 /  30  30  40  20
ELDORADO        73  87  67  87 /  30  30  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  91  69  89 /  20  20  30  30
RUSSELL         67  83  65  89 /  40  20  30  20
GREAT BEND      69  83  66  88 /  40  20  40  20
SALINA          70  84  66  88 /  40  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       71  84  66  87 /  40  30  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  92  69  90 /  10  20  10  20
CHANUTE         74  88  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
IOLA            74  87  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  91  68  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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