Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 181114
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
614 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

REMNANTS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT SURGED SE FROM NORTHERN KS
ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN KS ARE CROSSING THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING. A 2ND AREA OF SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING OVER SOUTHWEST KS & IS MOVING SE ~35 MPH. SE WINDS ~10 MPH
CONTINUE TO ALLOW RICH MOISTURE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

TODAY & TONIGHT:
MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SCOOTS SE FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SE THAT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT. WITH
HIGH OCTANE FUEL IN PLACE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THE
BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS
TONIGHT. A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.

TUE-WED:
AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES IT E/SE SURGE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TYPICAL (AND WE DO MEAN TYPICAL) LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGHS 95-100 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S. ANY
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS (AND THEY`RE MINIMAL) WOULD OCCUR WELL TO THE NE
OF KICT COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE RECURRING THEME IS HEAT AS VERY STRONG & DEEP HIGH PRESSURE COVERING
THE SE FOURTH OF THE U.S. WILL ENABLE DEEP SW WARM ADVECTION TO PERSIST
THE REST OF THE WORK-WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE
SAT NIGHT WHEN A BROAD UPPER-DECK WAVE THAT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD TAP INTO SUFFICIENT FUEL TO `SPARK` A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN: POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT.

WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD EARLY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
BY EARLY EVENING. SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS
AT TERMINALS AND FINESSE WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES. HIGH-BASED
NATURE OF STORMS AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST STRONG-SEVERE
WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
HAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    98  70  97  75 /  30  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      98  70  98  75 /  30  30  10  10
NEWTON          97  69  97  75 /  30  30  10  10
ELDORADO        97  68  98  75 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  71  98  76 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         95  71  96  74 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  68  96  74 /  30  30  10  10
SALINA          98  71  98  75 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       97  70  97  75 /  30  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  70  98  76 /  30  30  20  10
CHANUTE         95  67  97  75 /  30  30  20  10
IOLA            94  69  97  75 /  30  30  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    96  69  98  75 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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