Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

000
FXUS63 KICT 151738
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Another strong frontal system will start its slow march through the
region today.  This front will start to move through the I-70
corridor around day break today and slowly move to the south as the
day progresses.  This set up makes for a rather tricky forecast
today as temperatures behind the front are expected to be as much as
20 to 30 degrees colder.  Afternoon highs along the I-70 corridor to
US-56 could vary significantly as the front appears to have several
weak waves along the boundary which could cause temperatures to
swing wildly.  South central and Southeast Kansas on the other hand
will have brisk southwesterly winds and and partly cloudy skies will
provide ideal conditions for another warm day.  Records in south
central and southeast Kansas are vulnerable being in the low 70s.
Current set up indicates these records are likely to fall today.
Further to the north, records are similar but with the close
proximity of the front it appears unlikely these records will fall
as colder air is expected to work its way in around day break.

By Thursday evening and overnight, the front will have worked its
way all the way through the region and CAA will take over the
region.  Temperatures are expected to take a rapid tumble and
temperatures will be below normal for Friday with brisk northerly
flow.  This shot of cold is not expected to last long as winds will
kick back around to the south and allow temperatures to begin
another warming trend through the weekend.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

The main challenge for the extended range will be Monday into
Tuesday.  Strong return flow will establish itself by late Sunday
afternoon and into the evening.  With an open Gulf of Mexico,
moisture transport into the region looks to be strongest of year so
far.  This will not only allow temperatures to be well above normal
for the first part of the week but will also bring strong chances
for thunderstorm activity.  Currently, there are indications some of
this thunderstorm activity could be severe but there is
significantly variability between the different model families and
the subsequent model runs.  As such, confidence remains low for the
potential for severe weather but confidence is increasing for the
potential rain over much of eastern half of the CWA.  By Tuesday,
this front will pass through the region and temperatures will take
another tumble back down to normal or below for the end of next week.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Cold front is moving southeast and near KGBD with this issuance.
This front will transition the winds to the north for the rest of
the sites through 3Z as it passes through the Plains. Winds are
going to stay breezy through most of the period. Models are
suggesting a drop to MVFR ceilings for KRSL and KSLN this evening.
There is only a hint of reaching around the MVFR and VFR threshold
of roughly 3k feet currently. VFR conditions are anticipated
otherwise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

The next few days, unseasonably warm weather, brisk winds and dry
conditions will keep the grassland fire danger index in the very
high category for most areas.  Today and Friday the very high fire
danger looks to be restricted to the south central and southeast
Kansas.  Saturday, this very high risk will shift to the Central
Kansas before spreading to the entire CWA Sunday and part of Monday
when temperatures finally come back down behind a strong cold front
Monday afternoon and evening.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  25  41  29 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      72  22  39  26 /   0  10   0   0
Newton          74  21  39  27 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        76  24  40  29 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   77  27  42  30 /  10  10   0  10
Russell         63  18  40  25 /   0  10   0   0
Great Bend      67  19  40  26 /   0  10   0   0
Salina          68  20  39  27 /   0  10   0   0
McPherson       71  21  38  26 /   0  10   0   0
Coffeyville     80  30  41  31 /  10  20   0  20
Chanute         76  26  40  29 /  10  10   0  10
Iola            75  25  39  28 /  10  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    79  28  40  30 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...ELM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.