551
FXUS63 KICT 290810
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray showers/storm possible this afternoon across central KS

- Severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon/evening

- Another round of severe storms possible Wednesday afternoon/evening

- The active weather pattern continues into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

As of 230 AM, the midlevel low responsible for Sunday`s severe
weather continues to advance northeastward across the mid-MO valley.
The associated surface trough axis has pushed through the entire
forecast area, leaving a dry forecast for the remain of the
nighttime hours. Broad midlevel troughing remains across the
southwest US, which should foster weak lee cyclogenesis later this
afternoon. A weak low-level mass response is expected across western
KS. By mid to late afternoon, a weak inverted surface trough is
progged to extend from west-central KS into central/north central
KS. There may be just enough surface convergence along this axis for
a few high-based showers/storms to develop within peak heating. A
substantially dry sub-cloud layer will limit overall rain amounts
with any shower/storm.  Otherwise, high temperatures this afternoon
will range from the upper 70s/near 80 across central KS to the low
to mid 70s across south central and southeast KS.

Transitioning into tonight and Tuesday, a midlevel low will come
ashore across the Pacific northwest with an attendant 120 kt speed
max. Further deepening of the surface low across the high Plains
will surge low-level moisture northward with dew points returning to
the 60s for most locations. By mid to late afternoon, the surface
low will remain across southeast CO with the inverted trough
extending into north central KS. A sharp dryline will reside in
the neighborhood of Highway 81/Interstate 135. Model guidance
lifts a lead shortwave trough across northern KS/southern NE
during the afternoon/early evening. This should lead to
widespread thunderstorm development across NE. Further south
across central KS, more capping concerns should limit storm
coverage to more of an isolated to scattered nature. The
background environment will support supercell storms with
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and a long, veering hodograph yielding
40-50 kt of effective shear. Any storm that does develop will
be capable of large hail up to baseball size and damaging winds
up to 70 mph. As the Pacific front overtakes the dryline into
the late evening hours, an increase in storm coverage is
expected, especially east of Interstate 135. Storm mode is
likely to transition from supercellular to linear while
propagating southeastward into a 40-50 kt LLJ across southeast
KS. PW values are forecast to approach 1 inch ahead of the
front, which would support additional heavy rain across
southeast KS. Given the expansive flooding/river flooding that
is ongoing, any additional rainfall will only exacerbate
flooding impacts. A Flood Watch may be needed for late Tuesday
into Wednesday morning.

Transitioning into Wednesday, the main midlevel trough will
overspread the central Rockies with low-level moisture retreating
northward into the eastern half of KS. A sharp dryline is
forecast to extend from the Russell/Hays area, southward into
western OK. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s are forecast to
reside east of this dryline. The background environment will
become quite favorable for supercells along the dryline with
3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and long, veering hodographs yielding
~50 kt of effective shear. Any storm that develops will be
capable of all severe weather hazards including, large hail up
to baseball size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and tornadoes.
Similar to Tuesday night, as the trough axis overtakes the
dryline, more-widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight
across eastern KS. The chief concern overnight will be heavy
rain and flooding.

The main midlevel trough will eject across the central Plains
Thursday afternoon/evening. The aforementioned surface trough will
reside across eastern KS by afternoon. Additional storm development
is expected Thursday afternoon/evening along the front. The active
weather pattern looks to continue into the weekend with a series of
shortwave trough axis` ejecting into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. Isolated showers along a surface cold front will clear
far southeast Kansas by around 08z. Some stratus/fog in vicinity
of the frontal boundary should stay south of the KCNU terminal,
though added tempo MVFR for a time before dawn. Otherwise
generally a clear sky, less some cirrus, through Monday evening.
Light winds on Monday in vicinity of a weak surface ridge with
southerly flow developing in the afternoon/evening with its
passage.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED