Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 010825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
KS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING ON WEST FLANK DUE TO
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...CAN BE EXPECTED AT
RSL...SLN...HUT...AND CNU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU CENTRAL KS EARLY MONDAY
AM...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON
PM/EVE IN SOUTHEAST KS NEAR THE FRONT.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  68  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  67  89  70 /  30  40  30  30
ELDORADO        93  67  90  70 /  40  50  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  70  90  72 /  50  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  63  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  64  89  69 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA          90  65  90  71 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  67  89  70 /  20  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  71  90  72 /  60  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  70  89  70 /  60  70  40  40
IOLA            91  69  88  69 /  70  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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