Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201751
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS NEBRASKA TO NE CO.
ACROSS KS SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS WHERE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG ARE OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

DECREASED/REMOVED POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
BE SLIM. FEEL BETTER CHANCES EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THIS MORNING:
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE WHERE VISIBILITIES WERE BRIEFLY AT
1/4 VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY 2-3 MILES
& WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AT INDEPENDENCE HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO DUE SOUTH & WILL SLOWLY INCREASE.

REST OF THE WEEKEND:
PRIMARY FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM-RELATED. A MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS
MOVING SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY &
ACCELERATE AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUN. THIS WOULD DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SE
TOWARD KS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT DECELERATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT AS THE GREATEST ACCELERATION OF THE MID-UPPER
WAVE WOULD BE WELL TO THE NE OF KS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN & CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON &
TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER NORTHEAST KS & NORTHERN
MO, AS SUCH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP AREAS ALONG & NE OF A
LINE FROM KSLN-KCNU. AS THE FRONT RESUMES ITS S/SE TREK TOWARD...THEN
ACROSS...THE KS OK BORDER THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKEWISE SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER SUN MORNING AS AN
INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS KS. AS SUCH RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING ON SUN.
SUN NIGHT WOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR & COOL AS SURFACE HIGH INCREASES
INFLUENCE.

MON & MON NIGHT:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE WESTERN KS MON AFTERNOON &
SPREAD E TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MON NIGHT
AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WITH STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DECELERATE BEFORE MOVING NE AS
IT CROSSES KS. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF KS IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AS
SUCH PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NEIGHBORHOOD FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING & AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT ACHIEVE SEVERITY. FRI & FRI
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THESE PERIODS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COVERED IN
GREATER DETAIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KCNU HAS HAD VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND THE LOW CLOUDS MVFR WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT KICT
AND KHUT TO HAVE BROKEN SKIES AT LOW END VFR CRITERIA.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION IS LOW. FEEL THE BEST CHANCES EXIST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
EVEN THAT MAY BE SPOTTY COVERAGE. HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME WITH UPDATED TIMING FROM EARLIER FORECAST...BUT LEAVING OUT
PREVAILING TS UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  65  80  55 /  10  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  63  78  54 /  10  50  10  10
NEWTON          90  62  78  53 /  10  50  10  10
ELDORADO        91  64  80  54 /  10  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  82  56 /  10  40  30  10
RUSSELL         91  57  77  52 /  20  30   0  10
GREAT BEND      91  59  77  53 /  20  40  10  10
SALINA          91  60  79  53 /  20  30   0  10
MCPHERSON       91  61  78  53 /  20  40   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  68  80  56 /  10  30  20   0
CHANUTE         89  66  79  54 /  10  40  10   0
IOLA            88  65  78  54 /  10  40  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    90  67  80  55 /  10  30  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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