Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 302038
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HOURS...DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT TRACKED
THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS EXPECTED THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
COOLED AIR HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS HAVE
BEEN IN UPPER 70S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN SHINING. THE MAIN FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS AS
VISIBLE IN THE LOW LEVEL CU FIELD.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TONIGHT:
DESPITE SOME LOW-MODERATE INSTABILITY...THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SHOW INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN THE
CHANCES AND KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP.

FRIDAY:
THINK THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...BUT HAVE SOME VERY SMALL CHANCES NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING SKIES TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S. BY LATE FRIDAY THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER NEBRASKA THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD AND IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
THIS CHANCE AND HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES PAST 00Z
SATURDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY EARLY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. HAVE KEPT SMALL CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY...WITH SUNDAY ALSO DRY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE WORK WEEK WILL STAY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE RIDGE IS AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE...WHICH IMPACTS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

CURRENT SMALL BUT COMPACT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OVER
THE FLINT HILLS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE E-SE FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE
FOR THE 19-22Z TIME FRAME.  COULD SEE SOME REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR IN AND AROUND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS
IN THE KCNU TAF JUST YET.

THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AS THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM THE DEPARTING MCS MOVES TO THE EAST.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL/KHUT
AND KICT TAF SITES...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS JUST
YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS VERY LOW.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  92  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  95  68  92 /  10  10  20  10
NEWTON          66  93  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  93  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  91  70  88 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELL         63  92  66  92 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      65  91  67  90 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          66  96  69  94 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       66  94  68  91 /  10  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  92  70  89 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  92  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  91  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    68  92  69  89 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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