Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271958
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS VARYING PRIMARILY FROM 1,000 TO 1,500FT WILL COVER ALL AREAS
TIL ~15Z WHEN BREAKAGE OF THESE DECKS COMMENCES. BY 18Z ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN VFR CIG STATUS WITH SCT-BKN 3,500FT DECKS PREVALENT.
N/NE WINDS 13-17KTS/15-20MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH MOST AREAS LGT AND VARIABLE ~18Z. SW WINDS <13KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KRSL & KHUT MID-LATE AFTN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  38  72  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  37  74  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          51  37  70  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        51  38  70  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  38  71  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         55  37  74  46 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      55  40  75  47 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          51  35  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       51  36  71  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     51  36  66  44 /  10  20  10   0
CHANUTE         49  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            48  35  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  64  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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