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000
FXUS63 KICT 210012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
712 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN SD WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER JET MAX EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN MO THROUGH SOUTHERN KS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SE KS FROM WEST OF KCNU TO EAST
OF KWLD. IN THE UNCAPPED VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE DEPLETING AND HAVE DIMINISHED THEM TO
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WHERE THERE IS SOME CONVECTION REMAINING
ALONG THE BORDERS. CURRENT OBS WERE LOADED AND BLENDED WITH THE
FORECAST TO REPRESENT THE IMPACTS THAT THE SHOWERS MADE ON
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE MONITORING THE FLOODING
SITUATION WITH THE EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION.

VP

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263

WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RAINS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING. THEREFORE RAN WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE KS
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER SE KS WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN CAPE NEAR 3000J/KG AND 0-6KM IN THE 50-60KT
RANGE. WE ACTUALLY HAVE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN WE HAD
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL. BY SUNRISE
TUE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WASHES OUT AS
IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. FOR TUE ONLY THE FAR SE CORNER WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.

FAIRLY COMFORTABLE TEMPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
TUE AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS-IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE WED AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA PROVIDING
COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THU AS BETTER MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE THROUGH THESE DAYS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN FOCUS IS THE EXITING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS THUS
ONLY IMPACTING KCNU. KEPT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS FOR ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KTS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES
AFTER 06Z.

VP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  75  53  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  74  51  76 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          53  74  51  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        54  75  52  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  76  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         49  72  48  74 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      50  72  49  75 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          51  74  51  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  74  51  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  76  54  78 /  80  30  10  10
CHANUTE         60  75  53  76 /  60  20  10  10
IOLA            60  76  53  75 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  76  53  77 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$