Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 140327
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
927 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Northwest mid/upper flow prevails across the central CONUS again
today with pesky low and mid lvl clouds lingering across much of
the area. A shortwave trough over the Northern High Plains is
progged to move south and east impacting the Central Plains region
late tonight and early on Sunday. A period of light snow and snow
flurries are anticipated with some light accumulations expected
to graze the northeast and eastern portion of our forecast area
where a light dusting of snow will possible through Sun morning
before diminishing. The lowest 3000 feet of the column remain
fairly dry, so some of the precipitation may not make it to the
ground at least early at the onset.

Temperatures should rise nicely on Sunday within a low-level
westerly flow regime in the wake of the subtle shortwave trough.
The warm up will be short-lived as another surge of arctic air
arrives Sunday night. This will bring another round of light snow
late Sunday night into Monday as a transient area of mid-level
frontogenesis moves across the area. Light precipitation may start
as a wintry mix before transitioning to all snow. The most
favorable snow-growth region should remain across central KS from
Lincoln county including the Salina area possibly brushing
portions of southeast KS from Yates Center to Iola where an inch
or more may be possible before diminishing during the morning
hours on Monday. Further south and west, the snow production
becomes less favorable with mainly flurries expected.

Mon-Tue...strong low level cold air advection will keep highs in
the 20s on Monday with subzero minimum temperatures Monday night
into early Tuesday morning for much of the area. 7-10 knot winds
will drive wind chill values into the 15 below range for locations
along and north of highway 54 and a wind chill advisory may be
needed Monday night into Tuesday morning for much of the area.
Highs on Tue will struggle to climb out of the teens across the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Arctic high pressure will move into the Middle Mississippi Valley
area on Wednesday allowing southerly flow to return to the
Central Plains states. This will allow temperatures to begin to
moderate. Rising heights and increasing thickness will continue to
support a warming trend as we move through the week with highs in
the 50s by Fri/Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 926 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Areas of light snow and flurries are expected overnight into
early Sunday morning across mainly northeast/eastern Kansas, as an
upper disturbance races southeast across Mid-America. SLN-CNU
will have the best potential, although expecting little to no
accumulation and minimal impacts. Northeast KS will have the
greatest potential to see meaningful snow accumulations. Another
round of light accumulating snow will spread south across the
region Sunday night through Monday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    21  43  25  26 /  20  10  10  30
Hutchinson      17  43  22  24 /  30  10  20  30
Newton          19  39  21  24 /  30  10  30  50
ElDorado        21  41  22  25 /  30  20  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   21  44  26  28 /  20  10   0  10
Russell         16  43  19  21 /  30   0  50  20
Great Bend      18  44  21  23 /  20   0  30  20
Salina          16  41  19  21 /  50  10  70  40
McPherson       17  41  20  23 /  40  10  50  40
Coffeyville     21  41  26  27 /  30  30  10  20
Chanute         20  39  23  25 /  50  60  30  50
Iola            19  37  22  24 /  50  60  50  60
Parsons-KPPF    21  41  25  26 /  40  40  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...ADK



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