Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 072102
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Upper level trough axis will slide southeast across the region today
with associated surface high. Meanwhile mid-level clouds currently
northwest of Kansas will spread into Kansas for late tonight and
Friday morning. Models show some isentropic lift in the 285K-290K
layer with this cloud deck behind the upper trough. This lift
will generate a weak attempt for some saturation to try and work
its way downward, possibly giving way to snow flurries for Central
Kansas late tonight/early Friday morning. Otherwise weather
conditions will continue to remain dry with a warming trend in
store for the weekend, especially on Sunday with daytime highs in
60s likely due to favorable downslope effects.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Models in good agreement with a northwest upper level flow regime
persisting across Central United States. Confidence is high that dry
weather will prevail across Kansas with this pattern. Daytime
temperatures will be a bit above normal with no significant cool
downs expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

A surface high over the Central Plains will continue to move
southward into the Southern Plains by this evening. Winds will be
from the northwest averaging 9-13 knots, but will back to light
west-southwesterly tonight. Some mid-level cloud cover is
expected to begin spreading southeastward into central Kansas
early Friday and make its way into south central Kansas throughout
the rest of the morning. Confidence is high that VFR conditions
will persist through this TAF forecast period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Northwest winds will increase behind the surface trough across
central Kansas for Friday afternoon. The combination of dry air and
gusty winds will create very high grassland fire danger levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    19  48  27  50 /   0  10   0   0
Hutchinson      19  49  27  50 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          18  46  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
ElDorado        18  46  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   19  48  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         21  50  26  51 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      21  50  26  51 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          18  48  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson       17  48  26  48 /  10  10   0   0
Coffeyville     18  45  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         18  43  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            18  43  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    18  45  25  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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