Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 240544
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

UPDATED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS

ADJUSTED POPS TO KEEP UP WITH LATEST TRENDS WHICH IS TO DECREASE
OVER CENTRAL KS A BIT QUICKER AND TO INCREASE ALONG THE KS
TURNPIKE. BASED ON TRENDS ALSO DECREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SO ALL SITES
ARE LESS THAN A HALF INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY GETTING A
TRACE. ALSO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO COOL WITH TEMPS HERE IN WICHITA ACTUALLY WARMING A
DEGREE OR TWO THIS EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...MIXED WITH RAIN
AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS UNTIL DARK. THE LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP WILL TRANSLATE EAST WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND PV ANOMALY
TONIGHT...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO PART OF WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT WILL LESSEN POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...THOUGH AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY THIS EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAINTAINING STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MIXING POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO SEASONAL CLIMO. MUCH MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS
DAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTH
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY AND COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. THE
GOING MAXS LOOK REASONABLE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A PIECE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROF
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MODEL UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO RATHER LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE
IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS
A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE LAGGING UPPER
TROF...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP ACCUMS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EITHER SOLUTION...CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS GIVING SOME CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF SO WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...THERE IS GENERAL MEDIUM RANGE SUPPORT FOR HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT.

MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HAS AFFECTED LOCATIONS ALONG AND NW
OF THE KS TURNPIKE SO FAR TONIGHT WITH THIS AREA EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME
INTENSIFICATION RIGHT ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE OVER THE FLINT HILLS.
AT THIS POINT ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MISS
MOST TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KCNU POSSIBLY SEEING
SOME SNOW AFTER 08Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER CENTRAL
KS SHORTLY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MVFR LEVELS WITH KRSL-KHUT AND KSLN GOING TO VFR CIGS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON ALL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KCNU WILL BE AT VFR LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  40  26  52 /  70   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  39  26  52 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          29  37  25  51 /  80   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  39  26  52 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  41  26  53 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELL         23  40  24  49 /  30   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  40  25  50 /  30   0   0   0
SALINA          27  39  25  51 /  50   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  38  26  51 /  60   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  40  25  54 /  40  40   0   0
CHANUTE         32  38  25  51 /  40  40   0   0
IOLA            32  38  25  51 /  40  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  25  53 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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