Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220433
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1133 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Still seeing a few sprinkles drift into areas west of I-135 this
evening.  Weak mid level isentropic lift continues to lead to mid
level saturation and altocu.  Dry low layers are keeping most of the
precip from actually reaching the ground.  As the overnight
progresses, the weak mid level lift and saturation will continue for
the western half of the area, so think a few widely showers or
sprinkles will continue for areas west of I-135. Moisture transport
never gets very strong overnight, with very limited instability, so
think widely scattered showers will be the main concern into early
Mon. With limited mid level instability think an isolated lightning
strike will be the most that can that be expected. Will keep an
isolated thunder mention in for now. Also will keep pops in the
chance range, although coverage may be too limited for this high of
pops.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Currently have some very light showers or sprinkles sliding east
across west/central KS in an area of mid level warm advection.
Water vapor imagery shows a pronounced circulation over the
central Great Basin with the main upper low approaching the
western Great Lakes region.

Shortwave energy over the Great Basin will continue to track east
tonight into Mon. This feature will start to spread
showers/isolated storms across western KS this evening, reaching
central KS late tonight. Showers and isolated storms will make
their way across most of the forecast area Mon, with an overall
decrease in coverage and intensity as the evening hours approach.
Not expecting any severe storms with the activity during the day
Mon.

Pattern will remain active as another impulse dives down the
backside of the mean trough and eventually dives across central KS
Mon night. There are a couple scenarios for convection Mon night.
The first would be for surface based storms to develop along the
front over nw KS late Mon afternoon and push southeast through the
evening hours. The other is for elevated storms to develop along
the mid level baroclinic zone as it dives south. Regardless of
which scenario pans out, it appears at least some strong to low
end severe storms will be possible given the presence of good
direction shear.

Upper low will remain situated over the upper Mississippi Valley
for Tue and will slowly sink south. Should see some afternoon
shallow instability showers and isolated storms Tue afternoon as
very cold mid level temps provide steep low level lapse rates.

Well below normal temps will likely be the bigger story through
the first few days of this forecast with highs Mon and Tue in the
65 to 70 degree range. Lows Mon night will be in the low 50s with
Wed morning lows in the 40s area wide. Normal lows for this time
of year are in the upper 50s to near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Pesky upper trough will finally push east and by 12z Thu will be
over the Tennessee Valley. However, pattern will remain active
with another shortwave deepening over the northern Intermountain
into the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, strong low/mid level warm
advection will finally result in above normal temps for Thu. Will
keep with the thinking that strong capping will limit convection
during the day Thu. However, there is good model agreement that
storms will develop along a southward advancing mid level
baroclinic zone Thu night, especially across central KS. Some
large hail looks possible with storms Thu night. Pattern will not
change much with upper low anchored over northern Rockies into
western Saskatchewan with southwest flow and a series of impulses
passing across the central/southern Plains. This will maintain
periodic storm chances for the Fri-Sun time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The main concern
will be for overnight or early Mon morning, as increasing mid level
moisture and lift, may lead to some widely scattered showers or some
embedded TSRA. Will go with a VCSH for this chance, and go with a
VCTS for locations across Central KS where the best mid level
instability will be located for some rogue TSRA.

There is the potential for additional showers/storms to roll over
the high plains for late Mon afternoon or Mon evening, but will
address this with later TAF issuances.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  69  52  68 /  20  40  30  20
Hutchinson      52  68  51  67 /  30  40  30  20
Newton          52  68  51  66 /  20  40  30  20
ElDorado        52  69  52  67 /  20  30  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   53  71  53  69 /  20  30  20  20
Russell         51  70  48  66 /  40  40  50  30
Great Bend      51  69  48  66 /  40  50  40  30
Salina          51  70  51  67 /  30  60  40  30
McPherson       52  68  50  67 /  30  50  40  30
Coffeyville     52  73  54  69 /  10  20  30  20
Chanute         52  71  53  68 /  10  20  30  30
Iola            51  70  53  67 /  10  20  40  30
Parsons-KPPF    52  72  54  69 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BDK
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...Ketcham



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