Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 120934
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STUNTING THE DIURNAL RECOVERY TODAY
MOST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR
SUPPORTING MINS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY...THE COLD START
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE RECYCLED POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP
MAXS WELL BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO. AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT.
THE DEGREE AND DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP CAN DEVELOP TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FRONTAL TIMING ALSO SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY
FREEZING FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND DAWN. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK IS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SHALLOW/COOLER AIR
COULD AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER BY THURSDAY
A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS COULD ADVECT INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS NOW FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AT KRSL/KSLN WITH A
CLOSE CALL AT KGBD/KHUT. NEWER RUC/NAM RUNS SHOWING A BIT BETTER
SIGNAL FOR LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN FAR NORTHEAST KS TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL KS. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL TRIM BACK SPATIALLY AND
EXTEND TEMPORALLY THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER. UPSLOPE
CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AT KRSL AFTER SUNSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT TOO LOW TO JUMP ON IT THIS AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 LOW TO MODERATE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  19  37  30 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      41  17  36  28 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          40  16  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        42  18  36  29 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  19  38  33 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  17  36  26 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  18  37  27 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          38  16  35  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  17  36  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     45  18  38  30 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         42  15  35  28 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            40  13  33  26 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  16  37  29 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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