Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER...ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS DRAGGING A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: A FREEZE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.

AN EXTREMELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN COVERS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP WAVE CURVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN TO THE GULF COAST KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREAS UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. WITH THE WAVE
UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THE ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...EXTENDING FROM THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY. SUCH A STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LOW FLOW REGIME WILL
DRIVE A CANADIAN AIRMASS ALMOST DUE SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE
KANSAS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SECOND AND ALMOST EQUALLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
EXTEND FROM MONTANA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER-DECK WAVE
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST ON MONDAY THIS WOULD INDUCE RAPID LOWER-
DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INJECT MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...TO
MISSOURI. THE RESULT IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE RAINS ENDING IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
PROMOTING STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...A FEW LOW CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  37  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  35  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  36  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  37  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  34  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       68  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  39  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  37  48  23 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  37  47  23 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  38  49  24 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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