Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311748
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1248 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Current weakening complex of storms (MCS) continues to move east
across srn KS. Expect this MCS to continue to diminish as it moves
east as cloud tops warm with possibly a strong storm or two along
the srn edge of the system, near the KS/OK border, as some
elevated instability will still be located along the srn edge.

Next concern will be the diffuse cold front currently located across
cen ks mainly from KSLN to KGBD.  lots of mesoscale concerns as this
front oozes south for the afternoon hours. Most of the short term hi-
res models suggest that this front will make progress to the south
this afternoon, with some uncertainty on whether any convection will
redevelop along it, given the worked over atmosphere across srn KS
from this mornings MCS with a bubble high currently over KICT. If
the front stalls or slows, any heating on the north side of the
bubble high may lead to a chance of afternoon storm redevelopment
across cen KS, but feel this chance is highly conditional on cloud
cover thinning and atmosphere recovering enough. so for now will
leave a slight pop for most locations until mesoscale can work
itself out some. Current thinking is an isolated storm or two is the
main chance.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Main concern is heavy rainfall potential today and tonight as the
surface cold front drops southeast across the area. MCS/line of
convection is on schedule, and should continue to move/propagate
slowly east-southeast toward the turnpike corridor through 12z. How
far south and east this line gets and the resultant outflow and
potential MCV will be one key on focus/impetus for additional
convection later in the day. The effective cold front is likely to
lag and be situated across central Kansas by early afternoon and
will become another focus for convection. While there may be a
decrease in coverage later this morning, it is quite possible that
convection could linger in some fashion much of the day, gradually
going upscale again with limited diurnal heating and moderate
instability. Weak to modest deep layer shear/westerly flow aloft
may support a few strong or marginally severe storms, though the
main risk will be locally heavy rainfall and potential for renewed
flooding today and tonight. While a general north to south demise
in POPS is expected behind the front on Wednesday, there is some
suggestion in the short term models that convection could linger a
bit longer near the Oklahoma border into Wednesday evening.
Otherwise, the going dry and seasonably warm forecast looks
reasonable into Thursday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

While the general regime looks dry next weekend, there is a
relatively small chance for precip with a secondary cold front
Friday night into Saturday across north central and far eastern
Kansas. Otherwise, Kansas will be situated in mean northerly
component flow aloft as an upper trof develops across the
Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Cold frontal boundary continues to ooze to the south across the
forecast area at this time.  Also seeing some lingering MVFR cigs in
Cen KS in its wake as low level moisture still remains high, as
lower surface dewpoint air lags well behind the front.  As front
keeps moving south, the question for the afternoon and early evening
hours is whether convergence and airmass recovery will be enough for
TSRA redevelopment.  Latest short term high-res guidance shows
instability further south of the area into OK.  This would suggest
that TSRA chances are becoming less and less as front pushes into
OK. Will keep a VCTS in for the KICT/KHUT and KCNU taf for the late
afternoon into the eve hours, in case an isolated storm can develop.

The rest of the TAF sites will see improving TAF conditions with VFR
conditions.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    79  62  79  58 /  50  30  40  10
Hutchinson      77  58  78  54 /  50  20  20  10
Newton          77  59  77  56 /  50  20  20  10
ElDorado        78  60  78  57 /  60  30  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   80  62  79  58 /  60  40  60  20
Russell         75  54  77  52 /  30  10  10  10
Great Bend      75  55  77  52 /  30  10  10  10
Salina          77  58  79  55 /  30  10  10  10
McPherson       76  58  78  54 /  40  20  10  10
Coffeyville     81  63  78  61 /  70  40  60  20
Chanute         81  63  79  58 /  60  40  50  10
Iola            80  62  79  58 /  60  40  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    81  62  78  60 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...Ketcham



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