Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 171747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1147 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Water vapor imagery shows the upper circulation is currently
situated over south central KS and is continuing to quickly lift
northeast. Rain shield extends from northeast KS down into central
AR.

Rain should continue to quickly lift northeast this morning as the
upper low lifts out. After 12z, only northeast fringes of the
forecast area should continue to see rain with all of the activity
out of the area by 15z. Models continue to agree on another
closed low developing over Sonora Mexico by this evening. This
feature is still expected to slowly track northeast across TX Mon
through Tue and across AR Tue night into Wed morning. While
confidence is high that the bulk of the rainfall will stay
southeast of the forecast area, there is a slight chance of light
rain over se KS late Tue night.

As far as temps go, low clouds are expected to stick around for
most of the day keeping highs near seasonal normals. Meanwhile,
above normal temps can be expected for Mon with most sites in the
upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

Have high confidence that above normal temps will continue for Wed
as our next shortwave trough digs over the Great Basin. 00z runs
of the GFS and ECMWF have come in about 6 to 12 hours slower with
the strong cold front on Thu. Both models now don`t take the front
through Wichita until after 18z Thu. Confidence is still high
that it will come through entire forecast area by 06z Fri. Some
light precip still looks possible Thu into Thu evening over
northern KS with no significant snowfall expected. The bigger
story will be the coldest air of the season, with highs Fri-Sun
struggling to get out of the mid 30s. Not out of the question to
get some flurries or light snow Sat night into Sun morning, but
confidence is very low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

The concern at midday is MVFR (in SE KS IFR) cigs across areas
primarily along & E of I-35/135 With weak lwr-deck troffing
situated from Wrn IA, thru C KS to between KEWK & KHUT, to W TX
moving very little, if at all, this afternoon it`s doubtful the
Stratus covering KCNU (especially), KSLN & KICT will scour this
afternoon. As such have kept all 3 terminals in IFR (KCNU) & MVFR
(KICT & KSLN) thru late tonight. It`s possible with SFC flow becmg
more Wly across I-35/I-135 late tonight the Stratus will scour
KICT & KSLN this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  31  57  37 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      47  28  57  34 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          48  30  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        49  32  57  38 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   50  32  58  39 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         44  25  56  28 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      44  25  57  29 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          47  28  57  32 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       47  28  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     52  36  58  43 /  10  10   0  10
Chanute         51  36  57  41 /  20  10   0   0
Iola            50  36  57  41 /  20  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  36  58  42 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS



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