Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 292029
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
329 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Active pattern setting up late this week through the weekend, with
periodic episodes of thunderstorms expected across the region,
with an accompanying risk of strong/severe storms and locally
heavy rain/flooding. Forecast confidence regarding specific
details is low for a pattern like this, so focused mainly on
trends, and in some cases made little changes from previous
forecaster.

Current thunderstorm activity over northeast KS is likely being
aided by a weak mid-level disturbance along the eastern fringe of
warmer 850-700mb temperatures, amidst an unstable airmass.
Expecting brunt of this activity to remain just northeast/east of
the forecast area this afternoon/evening, although locations
generally east of the Flint Hills could get clipped. Otherwise,
despite an increasingly unstable airmass, thinking lack of focus
will prevent widespread thunderstorm activity across the remainder
of the area this afternoon/evening.

Like last night, expecting another complex or two of storms to
get going across the high plains of CO/NE/KS this evening and
propagate southeast overnight. Low confidence on track, longevity
or strength of this activity, although like last night anticipate
brunt will remain west of the forecast area within zone of more
favorable moisture transport. Another area of convection could
initiate overnight across northeast KS along eastern fringe of
warmer 850-700mb temperatures. If this latter scenario occurs
storm motion would bring this activity into eastern/east-
central/southeast KS toward morning, but once again confidence is
low.

As previous forecast mentioned, the threat for widespread storms
and associated potential for flooding and severe weather increase
Thursday evening and persist through Saturday night.

The first round is expected Thursday afternoon and night across
the forecast area, as a strong northern CONUS shortwave drives a
cold frontal zone south and stalls it across the KS region.
Numerous thunderstorms are probable in the vicinity of this
frontal zone, some of which will be strong/severe and produce
locally very heavy rain. Thinking the highest probability for this
scenario will be over southern KS/northern OK.

The second round of numerous/widespread thunderstorms is expected
Friday night, as moisture transport and isentropic ascent ramp up
in response to the frontal zone lifting back north, ahead of
shortwave energy approaching from the west. Signal is strongest
over generally the northern 2/3 of KS. Once again, locally very
heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms are possible.

The final round of widespread convection should be Saturday
afternoon/night, as the frontal zone passes back east across the
forecast area ahead of shortwave energy approaching from the west.
Signal for widespread very heavy rainfall is strongest along/north
of the front over mainly north-central/northeast KS. Strong/severe
storms will once again be possible as well.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Thunderstorm chances will linger Sunday over mainly southeast KS
along/ahead of the cold frontal zone. Other than low probabilities
of hit-or-miss storms, the region finally dries out and heats up
early to mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

VFR is forecast at all sites throughout the period. That said,
numerous questions remain with respect to convective potential at
all sites. Ongoing convection in northeast KS will likely continue
to develop throughout the afternoon, but track appears to remain
east of KCNU. Some potential for outflow from said storms to
initiate new convection farther west, but so far ongoing storms
have not generated a significantly expanding outflow boundary.
Weak north/south boundary through KICT is also lacking in
convergence. While one or two storms are possible from localized
convergence this afternoon, chances are too low to mention. Other
storms are expected to develop in western Nebraska from upslope
flow, but track overnight is uncertain.

-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  89  68  82 /  40  50  60  50
Hutchinson      67  87  66  81 /  40  40  50  50
Newton          67  87  67  81 /  40  50  50  50
ElDorado        69  87  68  81 /  40  50  60  50
Winfield-KWLD   71  89  69  84 /  30  50  70  50
Russell         65  85  64  81 /  40  40  40  50
Great Bend      66  85  65  81 /  40  40  50  50
Salina          67  87  65  82 /  40  40  40  50
McPherson       66  87  66  81 /  40  40  50  50
Coffeyville     70  91  70  83 /  30  40  70  50
Chanute         69  87  69  82 /  40  50  60  50
Iola            68  86  68  82 /  40  50  50  50
Parsons-KPPF    69  89  69  83 /  30  50  70  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH


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