Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 211658
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST. LEE TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS AT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE WED AM IN CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      80  56  79  56 /   0  10  20  50
NEWTON          78  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        79  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  78  58 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         78  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      78  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          79  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       79  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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