Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 160547
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1147 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

A shortwave trough over the Baja and northwest Mexico late this
afternoon, is progged to eject northeastward across the Southern
Plains Saturday into Saturday night. This will occur in response to
additional shortwave energy digging southeastward from the northeast
Pacific into the southwestern CONUS. 850-700 mb moisture transport
and lift from the shortwave is progged to move northeastward across
Oklahoma and eastern Kansas from late Saturday into midday Sunday.
This will support a chance of light rain over south-central and
southeast Kansas mainly late Saturday night into Sunday morning,
with the most likely probabilities in the southeast. Amounts look
light (<0.25 inch), given the progressive nature of this wave.

Much warmer than average temperatures (upper 50s/lower 60s) are
projected Saturday ahead of this wave. Lingering stratus on Sunday
and light winds, should lead to slightly cooler temperatures (mid
40s to lower 50s). A return of sunshine, combined with light
southwesterly downslope winds on Monday, will support highs
rebounding to the mid-upper 50s.

Overall forecast confidence: above average.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

The medium range period will begin with a mild Pacific airmass
Tuesday/Wednesday. The GFS/Canadian were much more progressive than
the ECMWF, with a remnant upper trough ejecting from the southwest
across the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valleys through
midweek. Have kept forecast dry and mild through Wednesday. The
medium range models indicate the upper level pattern amplifying
significantly from Thursday into the weekend. Strong 500 mb
positive height anomalies develop over the Northwest Territories,
with negative height anomalies from the Northern Plains into the
Southern Rockies. This will support a modified, polar cold frontal
passage around the Thursday time-frame, with colder than normal
temperatures filtering southward into the forecast area by
Thursday night, persisting potentially through next weekend. Some
light snow appears possible, mainly to the north of I-70 Thursday-
Thursday night, associated with the mid-level baroclinic zone.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Expect to see
some gusty winds out of the south for the daytime hours on Sat.
Could see some increasing cloud cover across SE KS by Sat evening as
a storm system in the southern plains begins to lift NE into the
Ozarks.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  60  42  51 /   0   0  50  10
Hutchinson      29  60  39  49 /   0   0  50  10
Newton          30  58  40  48 /   0   0  50  20
ElDorado        31  58  42  51 /   0   0  60  20
Winfield-KWLD   31  59  43  51 /   0   0  60  10
Russell         28  61  31  45 /   0   0  20  10
Great Bend      29  61  32  46 /   0   0  20  10
Salina          30  61  38  50 /   0   0  40  10
McPherson       29  58  38  48 /   0   0  50  10
Coffeyville     32  60  43  53 /   0   0  80  30
Chanute         32  59  41  52 /   0   0  90  30
Iola            32  59  41  51 /   0   0  90  40
Parsons-KPPF    31  59  42  53 /   0   0  80  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...Ketcham


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