Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 200522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1122 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SE INTO THE
OZARKS TONIGHT. LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...WHICH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING TRAPPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF KS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS STRATUS TO
GO AWAY ANYTIME SOON AS LIGHT SE-S FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ALSO INCREASED WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE STRATUS
REMAINING...THERE IS CONCERN FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. LATEST NAM/WRF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG...WHILE GFS
SHOWS SIGNS OF FOG...BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE. PLAN ON GOING WITH
AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...BUT WILL BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT ON THE
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER....WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR SAT AND INTO SUN.  WARMUP WILL BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.  COULD SEE SOME
CLEARING IN CENTRAL KS ON SAT...AS LEE TROUGH MAY TRY TO PUSH SOME
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  SO AFTER SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AND
DRIZZLE CHANCES INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

COULD ACTUALLY SEE A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CHANCE CONTINUE FOR THE
DAYTIME ON SUN AS WELL...AS THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH THE LIFT INCREASES AS IT MOVES ACROSS. SO
ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AS THIS SHORTWAVE PULLS INTO THE PLAINS...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH OVER IA
AND NEB...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE ERN HALF OF KS INTO MON AFTERNOON.

EXPECT SOME COOLER AIR TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE...BUT
THIS COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST FOR TUE INTO WED...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

DO NOT EXPECT THE COOLER AIR TO LAST LONG...AS MID LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL WED THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A WARMING TREND FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY...SO WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME BOTH DAYS.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL PLAY OUT...AS BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT.  BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS KS CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LESS
OF A SNOW THREAT BUT POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...OR ALL RAIN.
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST KEEPING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR CENTRAL
KS FOR NOW...BUT A WARMER TREND MAY LEAD TO THIS BEING ALL RAIN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR/LIFR HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SSW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF SE KS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT WHILE
MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN FREE OF LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRATUS...INCREASING CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  47  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  46  36  49 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          30  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        31  46  37  48 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  48  38  49 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         25  48  32  50 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      27  48  33  50 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          29  45  35  49 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       30  45  35  48 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  47  37  50 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         32  46  36  48 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            31  45  36  47 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  46  37  49 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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