Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 181811
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
111 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED OVERNIGHT...ORIENTED IN A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST MANNER FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG A
900-800MB FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THETA-E
GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THINKING THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-135 DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
QUARTER TO POTENTIALLY GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN STORMS TRAINING IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MANOR. HOWEVER...IF A MASSIVE COLD POOL CAN
MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THE CONSOLIDATING STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS 60 MPH WINDS.
NEVERTHELESS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY EAST
OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. STOUT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PHASING WITH A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS SURROUNDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD DRASTICALLY LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
CONTINUE ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD FAVOR MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...THOUGHT IT
PRUDENT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
GENERALLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH...AS
A LUMBERING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AS ECMWF AND GFS DIG A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME TRANSIENT
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS MAY RETURN AFTER 07-09Z BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW ANY
LINGERING STRATUS TO MIX OUT BY 14-16Z ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  69  89  70 /  20  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      85  69  89  69 /  20  10  10  30
NEWTON          83  68  87  69 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        83  68  88  70 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  69  87  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         83  67  89  67 /  20  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      86  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  40
SALINA          82  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       83  68  88  68 /  20  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     84  68  86  69 /  50  10  10   0
CHANUTE         81  67  86  68 /  60  10  10   0
IOLA            79  66  85  68 /  70  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    82  68  86  68 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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