Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 292113
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND:
*WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY.
*BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUN-MON AND WED...WITH WARM-UP TUE.
*WARMER WEATHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S DUE TO DENSE MID- UPPER CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST...LIMITING INSOLATION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRI NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY STORM SYSTEM...AS
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PHASES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEST AND PERSISTENT 800-600MB THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT TO
AT TIMES MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN.
PRECIPITATION-TYPE COULD START OUT AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI
NIGHT--SAT MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS LOW AS THE LOW-MID
30S. HOWEVER...MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SUPPORT MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS...PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A DUSTING. WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN FROM
LATE MORNING SAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS COLDER AIR
ATTEMPTS TO FILTER SOUTH SAT NIGHT...RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH AND
PERHAPS CHANGE TO SNOW ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 54/400 AFTER MIDNIGHT...PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER
FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS. DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES...FEEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH 1/2" TO 1"
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL KS...AND 1/2" OR LESS OVER
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO COOL A FEW MORE
DEGREES THOUGH...THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GO UP SOME. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF CONSEQUENCE WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST KS AND
NORTHERN MO. OVERALL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...SO DEFINITELY SOME BENEFICIAL MOISTURE.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DEEPENING EASTERN USA UPPER TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUN-MON ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY RAW DUE TO STOUT NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A QUICK WARM-UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S IS LIKELY FOR TUE...BUT THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT
AGAIN FOR WED- THU...AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CONUS...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER MID-AMERICA.
HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER TROUGHING
DEAMPLIFIES AND WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID
LEVEL STRATO-CU WILL AFFECT THE ERN HALF OF KS UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3500 FT AGL. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KTS.
EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL
INTO THE SW US.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    23  46  34  42 /   0   0  60  80
HUTCHINSON      23  47  33  41 /   0  10  60  80
NEWTON          21  46  32  41 /   0   0  60  80
ELDORADO        21  46  33  41 /   0   0  50  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   23  47  35  43 /   0   0  50  80
RUSSELL         22  47  32  40 /   0  10  70  80
GREAT BEND      21  47  32  40 /   0  10  70  80
SALINA          22  46  33  40 /   0   0  60  80
MCPHERSON       21  46  32  41 /   0   0  60  80
COFFEYVILLE     23  46  35  44 /   0   0  20  70
CHANUTE         22  45  33  43 /   0   0  30  70
IOLA            22  44  33  42 /   0   0  30  70
PARSONS-KPPF    22  46  34  43 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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