Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202022
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS...AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  AS THIS
TROUGH WASHES OUT...EXPECT A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SE-S OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS BY TUE AM. OPERATIONAL SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS OF 3-5SM AND CIGS AROUND 2000 AGL DEVELOPING
NEAR THE KICT AND POSSIBLY KHUT/KRSL TAF SITES BY AROUND
12-14Z/TUE. SO WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION FOR KICT FOR NOW.  NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FOG OR CIGS COULD GO IFR OR
LIFR...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING NEAR KHUT BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS CLOSER.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  75  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      49  74  57  77 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          50  73  57  76 /   0  10   0  10
ELDORADO        50  74  56  77 /   0  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  74  58  77 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  40
GREAT BEND      48  73  58  77 /   0  10   0  30
SALINA          47  73  57  77 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       49  73  57  77 /   0  10   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     50  73  54  72 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         48  71  52  69 /   0  10   0  10
IOLA            48  70  51  68 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    49  72  53  71 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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