Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271727
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

TODAY...FIVE-STAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE KANSAS
REGION...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS DRIVES CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH
ACROSS MID- AMERICA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON- EARLY
EVENING...BUT THINKING GREATER CHANCES WILL BE OVER
MISSOURI...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH`S INFLUENCE. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID- UPPER 80S...WITH ONLY
50S DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT-MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS.

LATE TONIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM GENERALLY WEST OF I-135...AS 800-600MB
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ON EASTERN FRINGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...LEFT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW...AS MEAGER LIFT/INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY ACTIVITY
QUITE ISOLATED.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...REACHING GENERALLY THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL KS
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST NAM/GFS CONSENSUS. MODEST
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN CONCERT WITH STRONG HEATING INTO THE
MID- UPPER 90S AND DEEP FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
ERODE THE CAP FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THINKING THE NAM IS
OVERDOING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS AND SUBSEQUENT
INSTABILITY...SO FAVORED CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...WITH MUCAPES
UP TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ACTUALLY HALFWAY DECENT GIVEN
AROUND 40 KTS OF 500MB FLOW OUT OF THE NW...WHICH WILL FAVOR SOME
UPDRAFT/STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT HAIL SIZE.
CONSEQUENTLY...SHOULD SEE A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL (ESPECIALLY
WITH INITIAL STORMS) AND DAMAGING WINDS...THE LATTER BEING DRIVEN BY
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS.

MONDAY...A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT NEXT WEEK ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA...WITH A TROUGH OUT EAST AND A RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS
PATTERN PLACES THE KANSAS REGION WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE OF
HOT WEATHER FURTHER WEST AND COOLER WEATHER FURTHER EAST. IT ALSO
FAVORS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...DRIVING PERIODIC COLD FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH ACROSS MID- AMERICA. ONCE
SUCH FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO KS BY WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY STALLING NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
LATE WEEK. TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAYS NEXT
WEEK...WITH READINGS WILL INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. A MODEST COOL DOWN INTO THE 80S-90S IS POSSIBLY BY LATE
WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY
09Z/SUN...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SW AND WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS ON SUN MORNING....AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NRN KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  64  97  68 /   0   0  20  20
HUTCHINSON      88  63  98  65 /   0  10  20  20
NEWTON          85  64  96  66 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        85  62  94  65 /  10  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  64  95  68 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         88  63  96  63 /   0  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      88  63  98  64 /   0  10  20  10
SALINA          88  64  97  64 /   0   0  20  10
MCPHERSON       87  63  97  65 /   0   0  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     85  62  90  67 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         84  62  90  65 /  10  10  10  30
IOLA            83  62  89  65 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    84  62  90  66 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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