Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 310819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES/PLACEMENT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL SUMMER
TIME HEAT. KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN RATHER WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY EACH DAY. WHILE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO...THEY
APPEAR RELATIVELY SMALL. BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LOOK TO RESIDE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL
STAY PRIMARILY JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MAY PROVIDE A RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION...ALBEIT SLIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT
TO MODEST POPS ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTER
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST ARE LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
POPS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER KANSAS AND
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SOMEWHAT SUSPECT BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. WITH
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5 DEGREES LATE THIS
EVENING...SOME TRANSIENT MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY. ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER
13-14Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  92  71 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      92  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          92  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        91  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  92  71 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         92  67  93  69 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      91  67  92  69 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          94  69  95  71 /  10  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  68  93  71 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     91  69  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            91  68  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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