Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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840
FXUS63 KICT 082014
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
214 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Tonight:
Another batch of low clouds will exit the area before daybreak
Saturday. This will make overnight temperatures a bit tricky, with
western sections potentially on the edge of clouds and
temperatures dropping quickly this evening, while clouds in the
east hold temperatures up. Situation reverses towards daybreak as
increase downslope flow develops in the west and skies clear in
the east.

Saturday-Sunday:
Downslope flow, very dry air and decent mixing should allow big
rebound in temperatures. Bumped them up a bit both days, but may
not be warm enough depending on downslope component on winds,
especially on Sunday. Flow may be a bit lighter on Sunday, but
pretty much ideal downslope component and warming temperatures
aloft will aid the warmup.

Monday:
Downslope flow and dry airmass continues. With stronger winds
associated with front moving through and good mixing, fire risk
will be elevated. Temperatures could be tricky given uncertain
westward extent of colder air. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Medium range models in good agreement with long wave pattern
during this period. Only concern will be series of weak waves
moving through northwest flow. Does not appear to be any major
surge of colder air, with mainly grazing shots in Southeast KS.
Barring a stronger clipper, the northwest flow will likely keep
temperatures at or above normal throughout the period. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A surface trough moving south/southeast across the area today is
causing surface winds to shift to a more north/northwesterly
direction. This wind shift has not yet occurred in southeast
Kansas, but is expected to occur during the afternoon and early
evening Friday. Despite clearing in cloud cover near the beginning
of the TAF period, some mid-level clouds will make their way in
from the north this afternoon, primarily affecting SLN but could
move slightly further south. With that being said, cigs should
remain in the VFR category. Overnight tonight and into Saturday
morning, remaining clouds should begin to dissipate as winds
remain predominately out of the northwest.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Main concern at this time is red flag potential on Monday. Gusty
northwest winds will mix down with cold front moving through.
Given very dry airmass, forecast GFDI values are near red flag
criteria over much of Central KS in the afternoon. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    26  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      27  51  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          26  49  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        25  48  25  62 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   25  50  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         27  53  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      27  53  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          26  51  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       26  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     25  47  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         25  45  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            25  44  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    24  46  23  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...PJH



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