Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 292027
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CAPPED TO NEAR- SURFACE BASED PARCELS...500-1500 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.

BASED TONIGHT`S FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE LATEST RAP/HRRR.
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE WAY TOO SLOW CLEARING PRECIPITATION OUT.
THAT SAID...THINKING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 5PM...WITH AT LEAST SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135 SPREADING EAST AS
STRONG QG FORCING CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GIVEN
EXTENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUSPECT IT WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
CURRENT...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATE ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
EXIT FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2-4 AM.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF KS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAK
FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL/DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL RELOAD BY NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN PART DUE TO EASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM OKLAHOMA...AND
PARTLY FROM OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER STORM
CORES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...AFFECTING HUT...ICT...AND CNU LATE
THIS PM/EVE. HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE LOW STRATUS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENSUE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  68  45  62 /  70  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  63  43  60 /  70  10  10  10
NEWTON          50  65  44  61 /  80  10  10  10
ELDORADO        52  69  45  63 /  80  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  70  45  66 /  70  10   0  10
RUSSELL         44  58  42  56 /  80  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      44  59  41  57 /  70  20  10  10
SALINA          49  63  45  58 /  80  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       49  63  44  59 /  80  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     57  74  47  67 /  80  10  10  10
CHANUTE         60  73  47  64 /  90  20  10  10
IOLA            59  72  47  63 /  90  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  74  47  66 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC


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