Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 262322
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Upper low was pinwheeling over southwest Kansas at mid-afternoon
and will continue steadily eastward across Kansas tonight. While
the rowdiest convection will stay south over Oklahoma thru this
evening, the latest RAP/NAM continue to show elevated moisture
transport resulting in MLCAPE values in the 750-1100 j/kg range
developing along the Oklahoma border counties from south central
into southeast Kansas. The accompanying lift and cloud bearing
shear of 40-50kts should support strong to severe convection per
the going forecast with large hail the primary threat. Scattered
to numerous showers and embedded thunder is also expected further
north into central Kansas early this evening, before waning after
midnight. Showers will linger longest across southeast Kansas into
early Monday morning before exiting by midday or early afternoon.
The mid-week periods still look very wet and occasionally stormy,
as the next upper trof/closed low which develops over the
southwest CONUS thru early this week migrates slowly east across
the central/southern Plains Tuesday night through Thursday. While
a few strong storms will be possible on Wednesday, it looks like
some healthy and widespread QPF with heavy rainfall potential
will become the main concern for some flooding.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Yet another upper trof/closed low look to develop over
the southwest CONUS late in the week which could eventually affect
Kansas next weekend.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Strong to severe convection will affect southern Kansas through
the evening ahead of a vigorous upper low moving across the area.
Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be the IFR/LIFR cigs
and occasional reduced vsbys in rain tonight. Improving conditions
are expected by midday Monday.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Periodic significant rainfall events are expected this week.
Grassland fire danger is expected to remain low to moderate.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  63  45  66 /  80  10   0  40
Hutchinson      43  63  43  64 /  80  10   0  50
Newton          44  61  43  64 /  80  10   0  30
ElDorado        46  62  44  67 /  90  20   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   48  64  45  68 /  80  10   0  30
Russell         39  64  41  61 /  60   0   0  70
Great Bend      40  64  42  61 /  60   0   0  70
Salina          43  63  42  64 /  80  10   0  40
McPherson       43  62  42  63 /  80  10   0  40
Coffeyville     51  63  43  70 /  80  30   0  10
Chanute         49  61  43  68 /  90  40   0   0
Iola            49  61  43  67 /  90  50   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  62  43  69 /  80  40   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...KED


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.