Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 150342
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1042 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Tonight through Friday:

A shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest early this afternoon,
will eject northeast across the Central Rockies tonight, and over
the Northern Plains on Friday, while additional energy drops into
the Great Basin. This will maintain lee troughing and southerly
flow. Isolated, elevated showers/thunderstorms will be possible
again toward daybreak into Friday morning, across the central
part of Kansas, where 850 mb moisture transport exists in concert
with isentropic upglide. Much above normal temperatures will
persist in the forecast area, with diurnally gusty southerly winds
again Friday which may elevate the grassland fire danger to very
high in central Kansas once again.

Friday night through Sunday:
The upper trough over the Great Basin will eject slowly
northeastward across the Northern/Central Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. Gulf moisture will
improve ahead of the associated, southward-moving cold front over
the weekend. There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday
night over central/eastern Kansas, in response to an upper-level
jetlet moving through the region. Above normal temperatures appear
likely again Saturday, with the cold front not likely reaching
central Kansas until the afternoon. Gusty south winds are once
again expected at least in south-central/southeastern Kansas ahead
of the front. The models have the front reaching southern Kansas
Saturday night. The GFS was faster retreating the front northward
Sunday into Sunday night, while the NAM-WRF, Canadian, and ECMWF
are slower in this regard and preferred. A few storms may attempt
to develop southwestward along the front late Saturday afternoon
in central Kansas, if capping can be overcome by heating and weak
convergence. However, scattered thunderstorm clusters appear more
likely in the forecast area from Saturday night through Sunday
night, via a combination of 850 mb moisture convergence near the
front and upper-level diffluent flow. The least noticeable
cooling on Sunday will probably be closer to the front near the
Oklahoma border, with the most cooling in the northwest half of
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The medium range models indicate that mean
upper troughing will dig southeastward into the western CONUS during
this extended forecast period, with concurrent mean upper ridge
development over the eastern CONUS. This pattern favors persistent
southerly flow and rich moisture advection from the Gulf, and
temperatures about 7 to 14 degrees above seasonal climatological
averages. There are some differences between the various guidance in
how the upper trough in the west evolves eastward. Feel there will
be periodic thunderstorm chances, although timing/location is quite
uncertain this far out in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Main aviation concern will be some wind shear overnight.

Lee troughing remains in place with storms over nw KS continuing
to lift off to the northeast. By the time you get to 2,000ft,
winds will be in the 35 to 40kt range out of the sw tonight. These
winds should start to mix down by around sunrise. Southeast winds
will again be gusty by Fri afternoon with gusts over 30mph
expected for areas along and west of I-135. Confidence is high
that VFR conditions will remain in place through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  94  71  92 /  10  10  20  20
Hutchinson      69  95  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
Newton          69  93  70  90 /  10  10  20  20
ElDorado        68  92  70  90 /  10  10  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   68  92  71  90 /  10  10  20  10
Russell         69  96  70  89 /  20  20  10  20
Great Bend      69  96  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
Salina          72  96  72  92 /  10  10  20  20
McPherson       70  95  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
Coffeyville     67  90  70  90 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         66  90  69  88 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            66  89  68  88 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    67  90  70  89 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL



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