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000
FXUS63 KICT 151536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
CEN KS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CEN KS.  EXPECT THIS WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS CEN AND SOUTH CEN KS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLER AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO THE SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
CEN AND SOUTHEAST KS. SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER CEN OK
AT THIS TIME. COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHERE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT
AIR IS LOCATED AND SBCAPE VALUES OF 600-1500 J/KG ARE LOCATED. NOT
ALOT OF SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
EXPECTING MORE OF A SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG PULSE STORMS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT BE AS HOT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY VALUES
WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY...AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SPREADING OVER KANSAS. OTHERWISE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION. THE STORMS
COULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING RECHARGING
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR ANOTHER ROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE UPSLOPE
MOISTURE FLOW IS FAVORED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ALONG
THE 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS
WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS MCS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
MID-WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...FOLLOW BY
INCREASING HEAT FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES
OVER CENTRAL US.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A BIT MORE DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS STRUGGLING A
BIT WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST OF
HYS TO WEST OF P28. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS BACK BUILD INTO SOUTHEAST
KS AS WELL PER 0600 UTC NAM. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING INDICATED AND
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES HAVE NOT BEEN AN ISSUE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
SO FAR. GIVEN THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WANING BY LATE
MORNING...VFR CONDITION ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WESTERN/CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...WITH STORMS ROLLING EAST
DURING THE NIGHT. MODEL TIMING ONCE AGAIN IS SUSPECT...BUT APPEARS
MORE LIKELY AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT EARLIER IN THE EVENING THEN WANING
AS IT SPREADS EAST/SOUTHEAST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST GO WITH
VCTS FOR NOW. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  80
HUTCHINSON      89  69  90  68 /  50  30  30  80
NEWTON          87  70  89  68 /  30  30  20  80
ELDORADO        87  70  88  68 /  20  30  20  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  72  89  69 /  30  30  20  80
RUSSELL         92  68  90  66 /  50  50  30  80
GREAT BEND      91  68  90  66 /  40  40  30  80
SALINA          89  69  90  67 /  30  40  20  60
MCPHERSON       89  69  89  67 /  30  30  20  80
COFFEYVILLE     87  72  88  69 /  20  30  30  80
CHANUTE         87  70  88  68 /  20  30  30  70
IOLA            87  70  87  68 /  20  30  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    87  71  88  69 /  20  30  30  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$