Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 212047
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

A shortwave trough moving over the Southern Rockies this afternoon
is progged to race eastward across the Southern Plains tonight while
moving over the Lower Mississippi Valley area on Sunday.

Light rain is expected to develop downstream across mainly Northern
Oklahoma working into portions of Southern KS this evening and
tonight within the deformation zone. Low pops will linger into early
Sunday over Southeast KS before large-scale forcing for subsidence
arrives across the area in the wake of the trough bringing a rapid
demise to any lingering light rain showers.

A mid/upper ridge is progged to build over the central Conus early
in the week supporting above normal temperatures across the area.
Another vigorous shortwave trough will emerge from the Rockies on
Tuesday bringing some potential for a wintry mix of rain and snow to
portions of Central KS late Tue into Tue night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

A mean long wave trough is progged to reside over much of the
central and eastern Conus through the period with seasonably cool
temperatures and dry weather conditions anticipated. Expect highs
in the low 40s with lows falling into the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Main aviation concerns will be lowering ceilings and increased
rain chances tonight.

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy moving out into the
southern high Plains. In response to this wave, surface low
pressure is expected to deepen and track across central OK
tonight. Far southern KS will be in the wrap around region of this
system which will allow KICT and KCNU to have the best rainfall
chance tonight. Ceilings will gradually lower but confidence is
not high enough to run with IFR levels at this time, with high
confidence in MVFR levels generally after 03z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  53  29  54 /  60   0   0   0
Hutchinson      35  52  28  53 /  30   0   0   0
Newton          37  50  29  52 /  40   0   0   0
ElDorado        41  51  29  53 /  50  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  53  30  54 /  60  30   0   0
Russell         31  51  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      32  51  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
Salina          31  52  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       34  51  27  53 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     45  54  30  52 /  70  60   0   0
Chanute         44  51  29  51 /  60  40   0   0
Iola            43  50  29  50 /  60  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    45  52  29  52 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...RBL


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