Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 300449
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE HAS LED TO A SCATTERED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM KRSL SOUTH TO
KINGMAN.  THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...SO EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE LATE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS
LIFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WILL ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL...WHERE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER...IE...AROUND 600-800 J/KG.

LATEST RAP13 SHOWS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE IMPULSE LIFTS NE... WITH MOST OF THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS...WILL BE THE LAST ROUND
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CAPPED TO NEAR- SURFACE BASED PARCELS...500-1500 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.

BASED TONIGHT`S FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE LATEST RAP/HRRR.
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE WAY TOO SLOW CLEARING PRECIPITATION OUT.
THAT SAID...THINKING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 5PM...WITH AT LEAST SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135 SPREADING EAST AS
STRONG QG FORCING CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GIVEN
EXTENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUSPECT IT WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
CURRENT...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATE ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
EXIT FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2-4 AM.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF KS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAK
FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL/DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL RELOAD BY NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS WILL END MOST OF THE VCSH AFTER ABOUT 08-
09Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS.  THINK THE LOW
STRATUS WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.

COULD SEE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS NEAR KRSL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  66  45  62 /  60  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  63  43  60 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          50  63  44  61 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        52  66  45  63 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  68  45  66 /  60   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  56  42  56 /  60  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      44  58  41  57 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          49  62  45  58 /  60  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       49  62  44  59 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     57  74  47  67 /  80  10  10  10
CHANUTE         58  72  47  64 /  80  10  10  10
IOLA            56  72  47  63 /  80  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  73  47  66 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BDK
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...BDK



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