Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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451
FXUS63 KICT 142338
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
538 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 319 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Water vapor imagery shows deep closed upper low lifting across
Baja with some weaker shortwave energy sliding across the
northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure is situated over
IA/southern MN with the cold front still way down over southern
TX.

850-700mb theta-e advection has been slowly ramping up over the southern
high Plains today resulting in freezing rain becoming
more widespread over the TX/OK Panhandles. This area of precip
is expected to continue lifting slowly Northeast and
additional development likely over the entire area. Not much is
expected to change overnight as precip encompasses the entire northeast
with additional development also expected over northern OK in the
next few hours. area. The main challenge will be surface temps as
the precip falls.

Feel that once temps wet bulb down as precip falls, that temps
will be fairly consistent all night. Parts of south central and
central KS actually got a little sun today which allowed a few
35-36 degree readings before the rain set in. So confidence is
high that we will be looking at temps in the 29-33 degree range
area wide after wet bulbing, with the cooler readings over
northern and western portions of forecast area. With these
readings, the bulk of the accumulation will be on elevated
surfaces like trees, overpasses and bridges.

Good precip chances remain area wide on Sun as better upper dynamics/diffluence
aloft approaches the area. However, temps will start to very
slowly warm from the southeast throughout the day as we lose our
northern surface component. This will slowly change all precip to
rain on Sunday with central KS seeing the most prolonged period
of ice and thus higher amounts like we`ve been advertising the
last several days.

We will lose our elevated warm layer over central KS Sun night
into Mon morning which will allow more sleet and even snow to
mix- in. The higher snow/sleet totals area still expected
northwest of the forecast area where a half inch still looks
reasonable with pockets of high amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Upper low will rapidly lift northeast Mon nigh into Tue and by
06z Tue, the surface low will be situated over southeast
IA/western IL with the better wrap around precip lifting off into
eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Both ECMWF and GFS bring another piece
of energy on the heels of this departing wave with the GFS much
more progressive with this feature. The ECMWF closes it off over
western KS but with airmass so dry, not expecting much in the way
of precip even if the ECMWF verifies. Pattern stays very active
with med range models showing a southern stream impulse lifting
across the area for Thu into Fri but confidence is too low to
insert precip at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Main Aviation Hazards: Freezing rain with ice accumulation, and
IFR stratus.

Expecting multiple waves of precipitation to move northeast across
central/eastern Kansas tonight into Sunday, ahead of the main
upper low over northern Mexico. This will be supported by 295-305K
layer isentropic upglide/moisture advection. Surface wetbulb
temperatures favor freezing rain with icing potential at all
terminals tonight making for poor to potentially dangerous flying
conditions. During Sunday, slightly warmer air gets drawn
northward into south-central/southeast Kansas toward midday or in
the afternoon perhaps. This should change remnant precipitation
type to rain at CNU, ICT and HUT, as surface wetbulb temperatures
are progged to climb above the freezing mark.

Expect flight categories to lower through MVFR to LIFR tonight,
with LIFR/IFR persisting into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    31  38  36  46 / 100  90  90  50
Hutchinson      30  35  33  41 / 100  90  90  50
Newton          30  36  33  44 / 100  90  90  50
ElDorado        30  38  35  49 / 100  90  90  50
Winfield-KWLD   32  42  39  50 / 100  90  90  40
Russell         28  31  28  36 /  80  90  90  70
Great Bend      28  32  29  36 /  90  90  90  60
Salina          28  33  31  41 /  90  90  90  70
McPherson       29  34  32  41 / 100  90  90  60
Coffeyville     33  45  42  59 / 100  80  80  60
Chanute         32  41  38  57 / 100  80  90  70
Iola            32  39  37  56 / 100  80  90  70
Parsons-KPPF    33  45  42  58 / 100  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ096-098>100.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ051>053-067>072-
082-083-091>095.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ032-033-047>050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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