Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 251140
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LINGER FOR THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM KICT TO NEAR KMHK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO VEER INTO NE KS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A LITTLE
FURTHER BACK TO THE NW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  THIS AREA MAY
REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP
ERODES...FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS JUST TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY INCREASING NORTH
OF I-70 LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY JUST TO
THE NW OF KRSL/KHYS.  SO WILL GO WITH A SOLID CHANCE POP ACROSS
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT AS PREVAILING STORM MOTION WINDS AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED AS
WELL...AS POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE HOT TEMPS FOR A LEAST ANOTHER DAY FOR TUE. COULD SEE TEMPS ON
WED COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT...AS INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

GFS IS FINALLY COMING AROUND TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE WED INTO
THU. THIS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OREGON COAST WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT.  AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...EXPECT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR WED
NIGHT INTO THU.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.  BUT THE POSITION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO LEAD TO STORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS
WED TURNS INTO WED NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS THE SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY SLOWS DOWN SOME AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FUNNELED
NORTH INTO THE PLAINS TO THE EAST OF IT...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST
UNTIL FRI.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SOLID CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THU
AND FRI.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS BY SAT INTO SUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL
CAUSE THE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD THEN SWITCH BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTH WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND SUNSET.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   102  75  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     102  74 100  73 /  10  20  20  20
NEWTON         100  74  98  74 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO       101  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD  101  74  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         99  69  95  69 /  20  30  50  40
GREAT BEND      99  71  95  70 /  20  20  30  30
SALINA         101  72  98  73 /  20  20  30  30
MCPHERSON      101  73  98  73 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE    102  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE        100  74  98  73 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            99  73  97  72 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF   102  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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