Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 211740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THINKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KINGMAN TO HUTCHINSON...TO NEWTON TO EUREKA TO
IOLA...AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH IS
CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING TEMPERATURES AT/JUST BELOW FREEZING.
HOWEVER...THINKING IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL...AS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND HEADING INTO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN CA AND HEADING INTO THE DESERT SW. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
RICH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO CENTRAL OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE HAD DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE WE MAY NOT BE BELOW FREEZING WHEN PRECIP STARTS THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE AFTER
12Z WHEN WE SHOULD START WARMING UP. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
295-300K LAYER IS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER
OK AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN BY 15Z AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO
SATURATE DOWN. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE TONIGHT AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. THIS WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALLOWING PRECIP TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OK ALONG
WITH SE AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY ON SUN...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIVE OUT OF GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SUN EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN
CHANCES TO LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SE KS ON SUN.

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO GET READINGS IN THE 60S ON SAT AS THIS WARM
MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH THE POSITIVE ORIENTATION OF THIS
TROUGH LIMITING MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE TEMPS MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WED. THERE IS SOME SIGNS IN THE MODELS THAT
ANOTHER COLD SURGE MAYBE SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BE
CAUTIOUS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL...AS RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THINKING THE LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
AT ICT-HUT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL AS WELL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEND TO IMPROVE BY LATER TONIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW...SO HELD ONTO THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT RSL.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  37  61  47 /  50  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      40  34  60  45 /  30  10  20  20
NEWTON          42  36  60  47 /  50  20  30  30
ELDORADO        45  40  61  48 /  50  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  42  61  49 /  50  30  40  40
RUSSELL         44  30  58  37 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      41  31  58  41 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          39  34  59  45 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       40  34  59  45 /  30  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     55  51  61  47 /  50  50  60  60
CHANUTE         49  47  59  48 /  50  40  50  50
IOLA            47  46  59  48 /  50  40  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    53  49  59  47 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ091>093.

&&

$$


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