Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141759
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1159 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Today:
Light snow will persist into mid morning with an uptick still
anticipated across the Flint Hills and a small part of southeast
KS over the next few hours. Accumulations around a half inch or so
is anticipated along the northeastern sections of the forecast
area. The highest accumulation is projected across Allen County
with around an inch possible. Temperatures should rebound later
today thanks to downslope flow, but a bit concerned that clouds
could impact maxes, especially in the east.

Tonight-Monday:
Temperatures not expected to fall as quickly tonight and may
become quasi-steady by midnight due to increasing south flow ahead
of approaching arctic front. This front will plow across most of
the area by daybreak. Fairly impressive lift in snow growth zone
is forecast once again, mainly over the northeast half of forecast
area, with longest duration over the Flint Hills. There is modest
upper support for precipitation, but baroclinicity is good given
the strength of the front. Precipitation may start as rain in some
areas, with a brief period of a wintry mix before colder air aloft
arrives. This transition should not last long at any given
location. Estimated snowfall amounts are in the half to one inch
range across the northeast half of forecast area. Amount could
approach 1.5 inches north of a line from Eureka to Chanute. Gusty
north winds and cold air will spill into the area, with
temperatures falling throughout the day.

Monday night-Tuesday:
Main story will be the cold temperatures. A wind chill advisory is
likely with -15 to -20 wind chills forecast over most of the area
at daybreak. Probability is a bit higher than usual due to
offsetting factors. Wind chill values will depend on 1) on the
amount of snow cover and 2) winds that will be diminishing as the
ridge approaches. Given a better snow cover, temperatures could
be much colder, but winds would be lighter. Warmer temperatures
will likely imply more mixing from stronger winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

One more very cold morning is expected on Wednesday as ridge axis
moves across the area Tuesday night. Temperatures may need to be
lowered depending on the location of the snow. The rebound in
temperatures commences as upper ridge moves into the plains. This
will be modest on Wednesday as the cold air recirculates around
ridge. Medium range models still not quite in sync with shortwave
moving through more zonal flow on Thursday, but impact on
forecast appears to be relatively minor. Bigger issue is the model
divergence on Saturday-Sunday with strength and location of
surface front/low. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Snow showers that moved across the area this morning have now
moved off to the east of all area airports and visibilities have
improved. Behind the snow showers, breaks in clouds have been
observed at most sites. Expecting VFR conditions through most of
the rest of today, but changing over to MVFR cigs around midnight
tonight as the next system begins making its way from north to
south across the area. Snow showers will likely affect
visibilities at all area airports through the early morning hours
on Monday, then clearing out by mid-morning. Expect northerly
winds to be stronger on Monday with gusts at least the 25 knot
range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  22  25   3 /  30  50  40   0
Hutchinson      41  19  22  -4 /  20  60  30   0
Newton          38  19  21  -1 /  30  60  30   0
ElDorado        40  20  22  -2 /  40  70  40   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  26  28   0 /  20  40  40   0
Russell         43  16  18  -5 /  10  50  10   0
Great Bend      44  19  21  -4 /  10  50  20   0
Salina          39  15  17  -4 /  20  60  10   0
McPherson       39  17  19  -6 /  20  70  20   0
Coffeyville     42  26  28   1 /  40  40  40   0
Chanute         40  21  23   1 /  60  60  40   0
Iola            39  19  21  -1 /  60  60  40   0
Parsons-KPPF    41  24  26   3 /  50  50  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...TAV



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