Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 030822
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
222 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KANSAS TODAY WITH
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
ALSO THE AIRMASS WILL ACQUIRE SOME COLD ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE FRESH DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS
NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON
THURSDAY...AIDED BY DECENT DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS HELPING BOOST DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE 40S. MEANWHILE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND ACTUALLY BRING IT
ACROSS KANSAS FOR FRIDAY NOW COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS OF 24HRS
AGO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT
IT MIGHT HAVE THE ABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IF MODEL TRENDS FROM THIS LATEST SOLUTION ARE
MAINTAINED. WE WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HEADING INTO
SUNDAY LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT IT TOO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AT THIS
JUNCTURE. COLDER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN TO THE
HEARTLAND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
USHERS COLDER AIR INTO KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

PESKY SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NW MO AT THIS TIME...WITH
GUSTY NW WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS ON THE W-SW SIDE OF THE LOW.  ALSO
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CO-LOCATED WITH THE MVFR
CEILINGS.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE OF THE
PLAINS.  THE WORST LOCATION WILL BE NEAR KSLN WHERE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO AROUND 2SM...SO WILL
INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN A TEMPO GROUP...UNTIL THE LOW PULLS FURTHER
NE.

EXPECT THE GUSTY NW WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE GRADIENT ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW STAYS
TIGHT.

EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS EARLY ON
WED MORNING...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY 12Z/WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  19  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  18  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          34  19  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        37  20  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  21  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  12  38  17 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      30  15  42  20 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          32  17  41  20 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  18  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         37  20  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            37  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  20  48  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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