Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 170537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

SNOW MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND LEFT UPWARDS OF 1-3
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE SNOW
HAS MOVED WELL INTO OKLAHOMA...ENDING IN KANSAS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SNOW...CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...BUT ARE
STARTING TO SCATTER. TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE
MODERATED INTO THE 30S WITH SUNSHINE AND LACK OF SNOW WHILE
SOUTHERN KANSAS HAS STAYED IN THE MID 20S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TODAY...THINGS CLEAR OUT
AND QUIET DOWN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS ANOTHER VERY WEAK/BRIEF
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PULL ANOTHER BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW FOR
ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THINGS MODERATING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY MID
WEEK.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THE EXTENDED IS WHERE WE NEED TO WATCH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT LATE IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT...BUT THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW A TWO PRONGED SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT SOLUTIONS KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE
LIQUID...EXCEPT THE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DIP BELOW
FREEZING. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT EASTERN KANSAS. WILL WANT TO
WATCH AS THIS TIME PERIOD NEARS AND SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE REFINED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24-HR PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 15Z PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE QUICKLY DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    10  28   9  38 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      10  29   8  39 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          10  26   8  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        10  27   9  35 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  28  10  36 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         10  27   8  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      11  28   8  41 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          10  26   7  37 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       11  27   7  38 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     11  29   9  34 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         11  27   8  32 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            11  26   7  32 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    11  27   9  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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