Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 090815
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT: INCREASING 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE HAS LED TO A LONG BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS INITIAL WARM
ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
MORNING HOURS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. MOST OF THIS LIFT WILL
INITIALLY LEAD TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
I-135 FOR MORNING HOURS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MAKING
IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO INCREASE. SO WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS FOR
AREAS SW OF KICT FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

WARM ADVECTION AND 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS MOST
OF WRN KS INTO CENTRAL KS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. AS THIS LIFT INCREASES DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG A NW TO
SE AXIS JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS
THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. THINK THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...BUT THINK THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES INTO THU MORNING. LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THIS AREA OF LIFT FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
AXIS AND TRAINING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG
I-135.  SO THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
INTO THU MORNING. WILL INCREASE POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS FROM KSLN TO
KWLD AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM THREAT INCREASES.  ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS IN CENTRAL KS...BUT EXPECT THE STORMS TO
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BY THU AM.

THU-FRI: THE WARM ADVECTION/LIFT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE I-135 CORRIDOR FOR
THU MORNING. BUT AS THE DAYTIME PROGRESSES MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
WARM AIR IN THE MID LAYERS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY TO
THE NORTHEAST...WITH MORE TYPICAL JULY TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR.

THIS WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL PUSH THE STORM CHANCES WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS WELL.

850-700H WINDS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRI...WITH A LITTLE BETTER MIXING EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR FRI. NAM/WRF SUGGESTS
TEMPS MAY CLIMB TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...BUT DO NOT THINK MIXING
WILL BE  EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO REACH 100.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

MOST OF THE PLAINS LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ROCKIES MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR SAT THRU MON. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE FOR SAT/SUN...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NRN KS FOR SAT AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON/ EVENING...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A STORM CHANCE. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS MOST OF KS FOR SUN INTO MON AS WELL. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION WILL BE LOCATED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR SUN INTO MON...AND THE LOCATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. SO WILL GO
WITH A CONSENSUS CHANCE POP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BUT NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS PLAYING OUT.

EXPECT SAT TO BE ANOTHER HOT ONE...WHEN IT COMES TO TEMPS...WITH
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S.  WILL SEE SEASONAL
TEMPS REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL...BUT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
AROUND WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MID-LEVEL ACCAS MAY DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT RSL/SLN/HUT
AFTER 03Z...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AFFECTING ICT AND CNU TOWARD OR
AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  68  90  75 /  10  50  30   0
HUTCHINSON      90  67  91  75 /  10  60  20   0
NEWTON          87  66  87  74 /  10  50  30  10
ELDORADO        87  66  87  73 /  10  50  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  68  90  74 /  10  50  30   0
RUSSELL         89  67  94  76 /  10  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      89  68  94  76 /  10  40  10  10
SALINA          91  67  90  76 /  10  50  30  10
MCPHERSON       89  67  90  75 /  10  50  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  67  88  73 /  10  30  30  10
CHANUTE         87  67  86  73 /  10  30  30  10
IOLA            86  66  85  72 /  10  30  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    88  67  87  73 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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