Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261728
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
YESTERDAY EVENING....WITH SOME TRANSIENT FLURRY ACTIVITY IN ITS
WAKE. NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  SO WILL SEE MAX TEMPS SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  CONSIDER TODAY AND FRIDAY THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.

THIS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MID-UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL THEN SW FLOW PATTERN.  THIS SW FLOW
PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG AND REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A POWERFUL ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINTER WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE PLAINS...WITH A STEEPLY SLOPED THERMAL GRADIENT
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH ARCTIC AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND PROLONGED PERIODS OF STRONG OVER-RUNNING OF WARM MOIST AIR
ACROSS KANSAS.

ROUND ONE OF THIS EVENT LOOKS TO START OUT AS ALL SNOW FOR
SATURDAY AS TEMP PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. LOOKS LIKE OFF
AND ON LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CURRENT
THOUGHTS SUGGESTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 50 AND 54. ITS A LITTLE PREMATURE
TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT THINK ONE WILL BE
NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS...WITH A CAVEAT ON PLANS FOR SUNDAY
(SEE BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET ALOT TRICKIER FOR SUN...AS MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WARM LAYER OF AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WHICH COULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KS POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE THE KEY ON WHERE THIS ELONGATED BAND OF
SNOW/WINTRY BAND OF PRECIP SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
WINTER STORM WATCH OR EVEN A WARNING FOR CENTRAL KS.  SO WOULD
RATHER HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND HEADLINES FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO ISSUE ANY KIND WATCH. BUT IT CERTAINLY
HAS THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED.

THE MESSY PART OF THE FORECAST DOESNT LOOK TO END ON SUN...AS MON
THROUGH WED LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS WELL.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE SURGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON.  NATURALLY IT ALL DEPENDS ON STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...AND HOW STUBBORN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR IS AT GETTING
DISLODGED.  BUT CURRENTY LOOKS LIKE A PHASE CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
FROM SNOW TO MORE OF MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND THEN JUST RAIN.
IF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TRUE...THEN SOME AREAS ON MON MAY
BE FACED WITH A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVOLVING INTO FREEZING RAIN EVENT
BY MON AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTRY PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN AROUND FOR TUE-WED AS
WELL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX FOR TUE AND MORE SNOW FOR
WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO MISSOURI BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

EARLY MORNING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND COLD DRY AIR WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD...THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO LOW TO MODERATE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  10  24  17 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      23   9  24  15 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          22   8  23  15 /  20   0   0  10
ELDORADO        23   9  24  16 /  20   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  11  25  18 /  20   0  10  10
RUSSELL         22   7  24  14 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      23   9  23  15 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          23   8  25  15 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       22   8  24  15 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  12  26  18 /  20   0   0  10
CHANUTE         24   9  24  16 /  20   0   0  10
IOLA            23   8  24  16 /  20   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  11  25  17 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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