Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 192045
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
245 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Main issue will be precipitation chances early and late in the
forecast.  Also warmer than normal temperatures early before
returning to normal late.

This evening and tonight...
The current conditions are showing very moist air migrating or
advecting north across Oklahoma as I type. Dewpoints are already
in the 60s in the southern sections of Oklahoma. This northward
advection will continue tonight. The main region with the highest
concentration of moisture will be along the Flint Hills region and
areas eastward. Therefore, I have increased the chances for rain
accordingly. With fog already occurring this morning, I am
anticipating patchy and possibly areas of fog towards sunrise
again. The overnight shift may need to hoist a dense fog advisory
if conditions warrant. The main hindrance for fog will be the
frontal boundary moving across the forecast area and developing
showers and isolated thunder for the region. Some weak instability
is present overnight, so I have included isolated thunder with
the showers.

Monday through Wednesday...
lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms will slide east out
of the forecast area by mid afternoon on Monday. Most locations
west of the Flint hills should remain dry. On Tuesday, high
pressure will filter into the region bringing light south winds
before swinging to the north with a weak frontal boundary passage.
This weak system should not produce any precipitation. Another
weak high will settle in on Wednesday before a stronger low
pressure system moves in from the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Thursday and Friday...A strong low pressure system will invade the
forecast area during the day on Thursday and exit by Friday
morning. Colder air will infiltrate the area with temperatures in
north central sections falling to just below freezing and the
chance for rain will likely mix or change over to snow. No
significant accumulations are expected.

Saturday and Sunday...
A more seasonable high
pressure system will then overtake conditions and bring about more
seasonable weather over the weekend with lows below freezing and
highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

LIFR/IFR stratus and fog will continue to improve this afternoon
though still only lifting into high end IFR or low end MVFR
category, except along higher terrain of central Kansas where a
period of VFR will occur. Otherwise, MVFR stratus and periods of
IFR cigs are expected again tonight with widely scattered elevated
convection developing northeast across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Even with the rain that is expected to occur overnight and
tomorrow morning, a high to very high fire danger will occur
across portions of north central Kansas on Monday and Tuesday.
This is the area that has the least likely hood of precipitation
and the amounts will be much less than locations further to the
south and east.

Wind gusts across the high fire danger areas will also see wind
gusts into the lower 20 mph range with RH values in the lower 20s
and teen percentage wise.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    56  73  41  76 /  60  20   0   0
Hutchinson      54  72  38  76 /  50  10   0   0
Newton          55  70  41  74 /  50  20   0   0
ElDorado        56  71  42  76 /  60  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   57  72  41  76 /  70  20   0   0
Russell         51  70  36  77 /  40  10   0   0
Great Bend      51  70  36  76 /  40  10   0   0
Salina          55  73  38  76 /  50  10   0   0
McPherson       55  72  38  75 /  50  20   0   0
Coffeyville     59  71  44  76 /  70  50  10   0
Chanute         58  71  43  75 /  70  50  10   0
Iola            58  71  43  75 /  80  50  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    59  70  44  76 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...CWH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.