Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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747
FXUS63 KICT 230815
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

 large upper low will continue to settle over the Great Basin today
and central Rockies on Sunday, with downstream upper ridging over
the Ohio Valley and eastern states. Gusty southerly winds and above
normal temperatures will persist today into Sunday across our
forecast area, to the south of a slow-moving cold front in Nebraska,
and east of a lee trough/dryline near the Colorado/Kansas border.
Widespread showers/thunderstorms will focus along the front and lee
trough, to the west and north of the forecast area through Sunday
morning.

The upper low is progged to open up and eject slowly northeastward
over the Northern/Central High Plains late Sunday through Monday
night. This will allow the cold front to sink slowly southward
through western and central Kansas. Anomalously high precipitable
water will stream northward into the frontal zone. The combination
of multiple embedded shortwaves, upper level divergent flow and
frontal convergence, will allow showers/thunderstorms to expand
slowly eastward across Kansas. Widespread 1 to 2 inch rain amounts
are forecast across central Kansas, with localized higher amounts
possible, with amounts less than 1 inch over the southeast. A
marginal threat for localized flooding is expected in the central
part of the state. Much cooler air will push into the region from
northwest to southeast Monday into Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The brunt of the upper trough is progged to advance from the
Northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes during
this period, with a remnant weak upper low trapped over the
southwest. Lingering chances of post-frontal showers/thunderstorms
will exist Tuesday into early Wednesday, with dry weather for
Thursday and Friday. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are
projected behind the front during this extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail all terminals the next 24 hours.
Saturday will be a carbon copy of Friday`s weather, with the main
hazard being stout/gusty south winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  70  89  68 /   0  10  10  30
Hutchinson      90  68  87  66 /  10  10  20  40
Newton          91  68  88  67 /   0   0  10  30
ElDorado        91  68  88  67 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  68  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         90  70  83  60 /  20  20  50  60
Great Bend      89  68  84  61 /  10  10  40  60
Salina          92  71  89  66 /  10  10  20  60
McPherson       91  68  87  65 /  10  10  20  50
Coffeyville     91  68  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Chanute         90  67  89  67 /   0   0  10   0
Iola            89  67  88  67 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    90  68  90  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK



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