Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 040817
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS FROM
WESTERLY WINDS BOOST THE LOW LEVEL WARMING...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
KANSAS WHERE LOW LEVEL AIR PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT CROSS ANY
SNOWPACK. MEANWHILE...AIR PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WEST MOVING
ACROSS THE SNOWPACK SHOULD COOL THE AIR MORE SO FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
KANSAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT SOME DECENT MID-
LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD SEE ONE MORE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS KANSAS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
MATERIALIZING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN STATES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LIGHT W OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW MID MORNING TOMORROW. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALSO EXPECTED AFTER
SUNSET THURSDAY. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  25  50  28 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      46  23  48  26 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          46  23  48  27 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        48  25  49  28 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  27  51  29 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         38  17  39  21 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      40  20  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          42  20  45  25 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  22  47  25 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     49  28  52  30 /   0   0   0  20
CHANUTE         47  26  51  30 /   0   0   0  20
IOLA            47  25  50  29 /   0   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    49  27  51  29 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.