Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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357
FXUS63 KICT 032340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG CYCLONE THAT HAD BEEN THE "STAR OF THE
SHOW" THE PAST 2 DAYS WAS CENTERED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO &
WAS FAST APPROACHING THE EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC BORDER. A
STRONG/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-DECK RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG & JUST E OF
THE PACIFIC COAST FROM NRN CA TO BRITISH COLUMBIA. BETWEEN THE 2
CHARACTERS...A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AS IT SCOOTS SE TOWARD KS. DOWNSTAIRS...NW 15-25 MPH
WINDS HAVE POSSESSED A SUFFICIENT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO ENABLE
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 35-40F IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE IN
THE NW SECTOR OF THE CWA WHERE SNOW COVER IS LIMITING TEMPS IN
RUSSELL & BARTON COUNTIES TO ~30F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

TONIGHT-FRI:
THE UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE THAT IS APPROACHING KS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT SURGES SE TONIGHT. THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THU AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT`LL DEVELOP
OVER MT & ID THU AFTERNOON LIKEWISE STRENGTHENS QUICKLY AS IT TOO
SURGES SE. THE RAPIDLY-STRENGTHENING UPPER-DECK WAVE SHOULD CROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THU NIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN
PLAINS FRI MORNING. ON THU A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALBERTA/
MT BORDER & SPRINT SE...CROSSING ND & SD ON FRI. SUFFICIENT LOWER-
DECK MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE N INTO CENTRAL & ESPECIALLY EASTERN KS
AHEAD OF A SE-MOVING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EAST
OF THE TRUNPIKE FRI EVENING. AS THE FRONT VENTURES ACROSS EAST &
SOUTHEAST KS...A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT RAIN TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIXTURE WOULD OCCUR VERY LATE FRI NIGHT. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE PATTERN WOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION AS WLY FLOW BACKS TO THE SW ON FRI.

SAT & SAT NIGHT:
THE NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SFC TROFFING ENSUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT`LL CROSS THE PACIFIC NW COAST SAT MORNING
THEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT AFTERNOON. SAT`S HIGHS WOULD
QUICKLY RECOVER WITH MID-UPPER 40S TICKETED FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE SPRINTING SE FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUN & ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE GREAT PLAINS IN A VERY
STRONG NW REGIME THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING AN ARCTIC
BLAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS & UPPER MS VALLEY...HOWEVER THE
MS VALLEY WOULD BY FAR CATCH THE BRUNT OF THIS ARCTIC INVASION. AS
SUCH AN E-W TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WOULD SET UP ACROSS KICT COUNTRY.
WITH THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREEING ON THE SWD THRUST OF THE ARCTIC
INVASION (GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE) HAVE KEPT THE INHERITED TEMPS
INTACT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AT ONSET...WITH INCREASE IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW MID MORNING
TOMORROW. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS...
AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG CHANCES. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    18  46  25  48 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      17  44  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          18  44  23  47 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        19  46  25  48 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  47  27  50 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         12  37  17  39 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      15  41  20  42 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          16  40  20  44 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       17  43  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     19  47  28  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         19  46  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            19  46  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    19  47  27  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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