Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS63 KICT 210918
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
318 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Main frontal boundary has been slow to make it into SE KS early this
morning, with surface dewpoints in the lower 40s leading to areas of
dense fog for SE KS. Feel this fog chance will be short lived, as
drier air begins to push into SE KS as the frontal boundary makes
its way into SW MO.  So will keep the dense fog advisory for SE KS
into until 14z, but could see this fog lift before then. Will keep
an eye on morning trends.

Zonal progressive flow will lead a couple of more well above normal
temp days for Today through Wed, as W-SW flow leads to good
downslope conditions. This will lead to max temps almost 20-25
degrees above normal with very dry conditions expected. (see fire
weather section below)  Could even see some temps come close to
record numbers for portions of Central KS on Wed.

Another shortwave moving across the northern plains on Wed evening
will help drive a cold front into portions of North Central Ks for
Wed night.  This will lead to slightly cooler temps for Thu for
portions of Central KS, with temps south of the stalled frontal
boundary remaining well above normal.

Models continue to show a shortwave is expected to come out of the
Rockies for Thu, with a low pressure area developing over KS for Thu
afternoon.  The ECMWF and GFS differ on the path of this low
pressure area, with both models showing the stalled frontal boundary
in Central KS pushing gradually back into Neb as a warm front. ECMWF
seems to be the most consistent with the lows path across srn KS,
but the GFS is further north with its path across nrn KS. Both
solutions suggest that most of the precip with this system will
remain across the northern half of KS with any kind of wintry precip
staying in Neb or IA.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

As the shortwave pushes east on Fri, colder air on the backside of
this system, will plunge south across most of the forecast area for
Fri/Sat, with more seasonal type temps values in the middle 40s for
highs and middle 20s for lows.

Medium range models continue to flip flop on how the end of the
weekend will play out.  Both models seem to agree that the cool
down, back towards normal will be short lived, with a warming trend
for Sun and Mon.  Earlier solutions seem to suggest another
shortwave would move across the area on Sun, but the latest model
trends shear this shortwave out with alot less moisture return than
previously thought.  So will remove pops for Sat and Sun.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Patchy fog is possible along a surface trof as it moves across
southeast Kansas overnight. Otherwise, drier north-northwest flow
will prevail in the wake of the trof through Tuesday morning. A
light to modest south to southwest wind will develop by Tuesday
afternoon and evening after the passage of the surface ridge axis.
Generally clear skies are expected Tuesday.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Good downslope flow from the West and Northwest will
lead to very dry conditions and well above normal temps Today
through Wed.  Relative humidity levels may fall into the upper teens
both days across Central KS, which will lead to an elevated fire
danger, with very high extreme grassland fire danger values
expected.

Ketcham

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Feb 22 Record Highs:

Wichita: 87 In 1996
Russell: 77 In 1982
Salina:  76 In 1982
Chanute: 80 In 1996

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      73  43  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          71  44  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        71  44  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   71  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         76  42  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      75  42  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          74  44  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       73  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     73  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         72  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            72  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    72  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ071-072-
095-096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham
CLIMATE...Ketcham



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.