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000
FXUS63 KICT 191135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): SVR TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG & E OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT.

UPR-DECK TROF THAT WAS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY SAT MORNING IS
BEHAVING MUCH AS EXPECTED BY TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXCEPTIONALLY
POWERFUL SVR TSRA (ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE BETTER POSITIONED UNDER
PRONOUNCED UPR DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT JET
STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROF. IN RESPONSE THE SFC CYCLONE SITUATED
OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH E/NE TOWARD CNTRL KS WHICH WOULD ENABLE A STRONG
SFC DRY LINE DRAPED ACROSS ERN NM TO PUSH E ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
EWD PROGRESS OF THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OVER THE
ERN PLAINS HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL WILL SPREAD NW & NE RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS SE KS. THE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY MORNING TSRA COUPLED
WITH SFC HEATING WOULD DEFINITELY INDUCE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE
CAPES FORECAST BY THE NAM & ESPECIALLY THE GFS OF 2500-4000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD EASILY PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL & TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS & WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO 125-150% OF NORMAL THE ++RA POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO
INCREASE OVER SE KS.

ON MONDAY...WITH DEEP CYCLOGENESIS HAVING ALREADY ENSUD OVER NEBRASKA
& SD THE SFC FRONT MAY STALL AS IT APPROACHES CNTRL KS. AS SUCH +TSRA
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER SE KS MON AFTERNOON & NGT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER SE KS. IN FACT A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SE KS MON NGT. AS THE NRN PLAINS CYCLONE
OCCLUDES TUE MORNING DEEPENING SW-WLY FLOW SHOULD ENABLE SHRA/TSRA TO
END OVER SE KS TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AFTER A 2-DAY INTERMISSION SCT -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
WED NGT WITH CHANCES STEADILY INCREASING FROM THU ONWARD. THE CULPRIT
IS A 2ND MID-LVL SHORTWAVE THAT`LL MOVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID
LVL LOW. WITH THIS SCENARIO HAVING CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 3-4
RUNS THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY
12Z THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL DECK HAS INHIBITED STRATUS FORMATION
THUS FAR...AND WILL CARRY A SCATTERED DECK 2000-2500 FT THIS
MORNING MOST SITES. VARIABLE WINDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY BY MID MORNING. WIDELY
SEPARATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS MID-LATE PM NEAR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BOUNDARIES.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
W-NWRLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  60  81  58 /  50  30  30  40
HUTCHINSON      84  59  81  55 /  50  20  20  30
NEWTON          87  60  79  57 /  60  30  30  30
ELDORADO        86  62  81  59 /  60  50  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  63  82  60 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELL         81  54  78  53 /  40  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      81  55  78  53 /  40  10  20  20
SALINA          83  58  80  53 /  50  20  20  30
MCPHERSON       84  59  80  55 /  50  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     85  65  83  62 /  60  80  60  90
CHANUTE         85  65  82  61 /  70  80  50  80
IOLA            85  65  82  61 /  70  80  50  80
PARSONS-KPPF    85  65  82  62 /  70  80  60  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$