Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181702
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1202 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold and dry Monday

- Much warmer Tuesday and Wednesday

- Chances or showers and thunderstorms Thursday and into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A strong high pressure system is currently building into the region
today.  This high pressure system is allowing strong CAA supported
by a polar airmass.  This polar airmass does have some Arctic
characteristics which will be bring in very low Td temperatures
across the region.  Tds of 10-15F will make the air temperatures
feel cooler than the 40s and 50s expected for today.  Any wind will
make it feel even cooler.  Fortunately, this cold air will not last
long as all the ensembles are indicating a rapid warm up tonight and
into Tuesday.  850mb temps will warm rapidly overnight from a -5C
tonight to around 10C by noon Tuesday.  This is indicative of strong
WAA overnight tonight allowing for a much warmer day Tuesday with
temperatures likely to be in the mid 70s in many areas.  Wednesday
will also be rather warm but 850mb temperatures are a little cooler
(in the 4-7C range) as a weak mid level trough comes through Tuesday
night.  This supports more low to mid 60s in Central Kansas and
upper 60s to near 70 in South Central Kansas.

Thursday and Friday, the forecast becomes difficult.  The upper
level low that has been sitting in the Four Corners region will
finally begin to move east.  The model ensembles are mixed on the
projected track of this upper level system.  ECMWF/GFS families tend
push the track of the upper low along the Red River to the south
while the Canadian indicates a more northerly track through Central
Oklahoma. The end of the NAM indicates a similar potential track.
This difference in track will be critical for the potential for
rainfall for the end of this week.  Both solutions indicate a decent
chance (40%-50%) of rain across parts of South Central Kansas with
Canadian solution showing higher chances of some decent accumulating
rain. The GFS/ECMWF solutions are on the drier side, how much
remains to be determined.  Needless to say, confidence in rainfall
for the end of the week remains low (<20%). At this time, South
Central and Southeast Kansas appear to have the best chances for any
rain occurring Thursday and Friday. Rain chances for Central Kansas
appear to be dwindling rapidly.

The forecast for the coming weekend appears to show a much more
active pattern.  This is one area where all the ensembles appear to
be singing the same or, at least, a similar song.  At this time, it
appears cooler temperatures that are much closer to normal or below
are likely with increased chances for rain.  Given the uncertainties
in the forecast for end of the week, confidence in the forecast for
the coming weekend remain low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Northwesterly winds at 10-15 kt will continue through the
daytime hours today before becoming light and variable this
evening. Southerly winds will return overnight near 10 kt with
LLWS conditions expected area-wide after 09Z as a 40-45 kt LLJ
near 1.4 kft overspreads the area. LLWS conditions subside by
mid-morning as southwesterly winds increase to 10-15 kt.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...BMB


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