Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 270822
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Today:
Mixed signals from models on extent/timing of precipitation. Seems
to be some consensus for a relative minimum across south central
KS later this morning before redeveloping this afternoon. Highest
chances should be in southeast KS in closer proximity to front.
One more day of triple digit heat indices is expected in far
southeast KS, but heat indices should remain shy of advisory
criteria. Highs today should be cooler than yesterday at nearly
all locations. Tough call on precipitation chances after 0000 UTC
with relatively moist low levels across southern half of forecast
area, but lift is below 850MB, so may have more sprinkles or
isolated rain showers.

Friday-Saturday
Cooler air will persist throughout the period, with temperatures
running a few to several degree below normals. Models still
hinting at a chance of storms grazing far northwest sections on
Saturday afternoon near eastern edge of moisture return. Chances
increase at bit Saturday night generally west of Highway 14.
Storms are likely across the High Plains, but it remains to be
seen how far east they will spread in the northwest flow regime.
-Howerton


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Little change in overall northwest flow pattern with surface high
over much of the midwest. There will likely be storms on the High
Plains most days, but remains to be seen how far east these will
spread. The various models ability to forecast weak waves that
would modulate precipitation is poor in this pattern, as evidenced
by variability in timing and location of QPF from model to model
and run to run. For consensus, have keep generally small chances
going on western fringe of forecast area, but expect the vast
amount of the area, the vast amount of the time, to remain dry.
Temperatures should remain at or below normals. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop
across south-central and especially southeastern Kansas overnight,
given 850 mb moisture transport and mid-level isentropic ascent.
Will use TEMPO TSRA at the CNU terminal, and VCTS at ICT and HUT
for a few hours overnight. A cold front will continue to move
slowly southward across south-central Kansas overnight into
Thursday morning, clearing southeast Kansas around midday or in
the afternoon. South winds will shift to north-northeasterly
behind the frontal passage. Stratus should continue to fill in
behind the front in central and south-central Kansas overnight
into Thursday morning. The stratus should lift during the morning
and scatter out by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  72  89  67 /  20  20   0   0
Hutchinson      86  70  89  65 /  20  10   0   0
Newton          86  69  87  65 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        87  70  87  65 /  20  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   92  72  90  67 /  30  20  10   0
Russell         87  67  89  66 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      85  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          87  69  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       86  69  88  65 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     94  73  88  66 /  40  30  10   0
Chanute         89  71  87  65 /  40  20  10   0
Iola            87  70  86  64 /  40  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    92  72  88  66 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC



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