Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 291956
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODERATE INSTABILITY UNDER UPPER TROF ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED AGITATED CU FIELD
JUST WEST OF WICHITA METRO WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN RENO
COUNTY SINCE 1930Z. THE RUC AND HRRR WHERE SUGGESTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BEFORE
SHIFTING CHANCES FURTHER EAST THRU THE EVENING. THIS IS HANDLED
FAIRLY WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BEGIN ON A WARM BUT DRY NOTE FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF MOVES SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER THE
LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE VOLATILE AS
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF
MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY. A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION
UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS EARLY EVENING ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY
MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT MIGRATING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION BY LATE
MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD ALSO GIVE
RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PLAN TO MAKE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WANING AND TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN DURING THE WEEK.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS WEAK WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-135. FOR NOW INCLUDED VCSH AT ICT-CNU
AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE...THREAT SHOULD EXIT ICT BY 00Z...AND CNU BY
06Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  92  69  95 /  20   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  92  69  96 /  20   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  91  69  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELDORADO        65  91  68  94 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  92  69  95 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         63  92  69  96 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      62  92  69  97 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          64  93  69  97 /  20   0  20  20
MCPHERSON       64  92  69  96 /  20   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  94 /  40  20  20  10
CHANUTE         67  90  68  93 /  40  20  20  10
IOLA            67  89  68  93 /  40  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    68  90  69  94 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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