Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 241938
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
238 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
850-700 LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS NEAR RECORD LEVELS SATURDAY-SUNDAY
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. SOME HIGH-LEVEL CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MAY
INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/JET
STREAK PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
COUNTERED WITH STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MIXING.

THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE PROGRESSIVELY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ATTENDANT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH
SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH BEHIND IT. HOWEVER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL BE MARGINAL AND DIRECTED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. SO WE
EXPECT THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EASTWARD...LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE THERE...AND THE
PROBABILITY OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW. ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH ANY
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE NET EFFECT
OF THE ABOVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES WILL BE DRIER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND FEW-SCT CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND AS WINDS
DECOUPLE AND A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TRENDED AREA TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER
09-10Z LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 15Z ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        58  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         50  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          53  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            57  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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