Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 302344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE LIFTING OVER A MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE MORE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WIND SPEEDS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM KANSAS WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES. THIS WILL WARM UP THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH IS
SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN SO FAR THIS SPRING SEASON. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES POSSIBLE. THE EXPANSION OF MID-
LEVEL WARMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER...WHICH COULD CAP/INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AND FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE EDGE OF THE CAP DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF KANSAS WHICH
IS IMPACTING MANY OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE OR
WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WESTERN EDGE IS
ERODING...BUT SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO LOW MVFR AND IN SOME CASES IFR WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
START TO LIFT DURING THE MORNING AND ERODE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    52  75  56  78 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      49  75  56  78 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          49  72  54  77 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        51  74  54  76 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  75  55  77 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         46  76  56  80 /   0   0  30  20
GREAT BEND      48  76  57  80 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          50  75  56  78 /   0   0  20  10
MCPHERSON       48  74  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     53  73  52  77 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         52  72  52  75 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            53  71  53  74 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    52  73  53  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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