Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 112041
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 111 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

As of this afternoon, most falling wintry precip has exited the
area (with the exception of a brief stray band or two in southeast
Kansas) as the shortwave system continues to move across the
eastern half of the CONUS. Winds will remain gusty through the
remainder of the day today, with sustained speeds around 30mph
with gusts in excess of 40mph possible. See Wind Advisory for more
details. These gusty winds will have the potential to blow loose
snow that is already on the ground, which could reduce
visibilities through the early afternoon even though accumulating
precip has ended.

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough, an area of high
pressure is forecast to slowly propagate across the Northern
Plains tonight and make its way into Upper and Middle Mississippi
Valleys before moving into the Ohio Valley and off further to our
east this weekend. Skies for the remainder of today should be
mostly sunny and remain clear overnight tonight ahead of increased
cloud cover again on Friday. The high pressure system to our north
will usher in ample cold air advection associated with an Arctic
airmass tonight, which will allow for low temperatures to plummet
into the single digits across the northern portions of the CWA.
These low temperatures will be aided by snow cover on the ground
in many locations. This prompted lowering temps slightly for
tonight and early tomorrow from previous forecasts.

A weak transient disturbance in the mid levels is expected to
quickly brush by the area just to the southwest Friday night into
early Saturday morning. This could be enough to spawn a few light
snow flurries, especially in northern and eastern counties in the
CWA along the Flint Hills. Any flurries that do occur are expected
to be both brief and insignificant and should not amount to any
accumulation on the ground.

Overall, the main highlight of tonight through Saturday will be
temperatures, which will remain below the freezing mark for at
least the next several days. Though we expect to comfortably
remain above wind chill advisory criteria, wind chills between
zero and -10 are expected across much of central, south central,
and southeast Kansas both Friday and Saturday mornings.

Another clipper is expected to make its way across eastern Kansas
during the day on Sunday bringing non-zero chances of light snow
once again to mainly southeast Kansas counties, though the bulk
of the precip should remain off to our north and east.
Temperatures should reach just above freezing by Sunday, allowing
us to thaw out briefly before heading into next week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

On Monday, a deep low pressure system will settle into the Great
Lakes region. This system is forecast to bring another surge of
cold Arctic air into our area by Monday, once again sending
temperatures below the freezing mark where they should remain
until at least the middle of next week. Sufficient frontogenesis
should be present to bring a better chance of light snow across
most of the area during the day on Monday, clearing out by the
late afternoon.

The remainder of the forecast period should remain dry but cold
in a high pressure dominated regime. Wind chills are progged to
dip below zero again on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings before
another slight warm up on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

IFR/MVFR cigs will improve from west to east with VFR prevailing
at most locations by mid afternoon. One exception will be KSLN
where blowing snow may allow MVFR visibilities to linger a bit
longer. Northwest winds of 25 to 35 knots with a few higher gusts
will continue through much of the afternoon before relaxing this
evening as high pressure builds south towards the area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT     6  29  12  22 /   0   0  10   0
Hutchinson       7  26   8  20 /   0  10  10   0
Newton           6  26   9  19 /   0  10  10   0
ElDorado         7  29  11  21 /   0  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD    6  31  13  24 /   0   0   0   0
Russell          3  25   6  20 /   0  10  10   0
Great Bend       3  27   7  21 /   0  10  10   0
Salina           2  22   7  19 /   0  20  10   0
McPherson        4  24   7  19 /   0  10  10   0
Coffeyville     12  31  15  25 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         10  29  12  23 /  10   0  10   0
Iola             9  28  12  22 /  10   0  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    12  30  13  24 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...MWM



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