Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 262324
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A CUTOFF PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER NORTHERN MO THAT LOOKS TO BE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
ANOTHER CUTOFF CIRCULATION OVER SW TX. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH IS NOW COMING ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE ROCKIES WITH THE CUTOFF PIECE OF ENERGY
REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP LEE TROUGHING IN PLACE
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SAT IN THE 80S
AREA WIDE. BY SUN AFTERNOON THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST SUN
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH MON AND WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK THE SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING
NEGATIVE TILT WITH THIS FEATURE SITUATED OVER NW KS/WESTERN
NEBRASKA BY TU MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL KS BY EARLY TUE MORNING. BY
00Z WED THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT OF THE PACIFIC VARIETY
STRETCHING THROUGH KS. SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FEATURE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS OUR FORECAST AREA IS FAR REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS. WHILE THE TIMING IS OFF BY AROUND 12
HOURS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/OK FOR
WED-WED NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE AFTER THE THU TIME FRAME AS THE GFS
REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SWINGING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST WHILE THE
ECMWF DIGS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SO THIS
LEADS TO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THEREFORE HAVE
LEFT MENTIONS OF GUSTS OUT OF KCNU TAF. MID-LEVEL AFTERNOON CU
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  85  62  87 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  84  61  86 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          59  84  61  84 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        60  84  61  86 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  85  62  85 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         59  85  61  85 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  85  61  86 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          60  84  61  85 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       59  83  61  84 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     60  82  60  84 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  82  58  84 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            59  82  58  83 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  82  59  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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