Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 240935
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
435 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

In the near-term, will carry a wind advisory for the Flint Hills and
southeastern Kansas this morning, where a strengthened pressure
gradient and steepening surface-850 mb lapse rates should allow for
occasional gusts to around 45 mph, as stronger winds aloft mix
downward to the surface.

An upper low over far southeastern Colorado early this morning, is
progged to slide into western Oklahoma by late this afternoon. The
leading edge of marginal gulf moisture return (mid-upper 50s surface
dewpoints) was near the Red River early this morning. This low-level
moisture is expected to advect northward into eastern Kansas Today,
roughly along/east of Interstate 135 in our forecast area. Scattered
clusters of thunderstorms may develop toward midday east of I-135 in
the strong moisture transport/upper diffluent flow regime. This
activity may grow upscale into a QLCS, as it shifts east into
Missouri during the afternoon. These storms may pose a large
hail/damaging wind threat. Other, more isolated thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon across South-Central Kansas/Flint Hills,
within a mid-level dry slot, on the northeast periphery of the
upper low where strong diurnal heating is realized. The Rap and
other hi-res models hint at a triple point/dryline over south-
central KS, which allows surface winds to weaken/back to
southeasterly by mid-late afternoon with very steep 0-2 km lapse
rates nosing in from the southwest. With SBCAPE around 1500 j/kg,
strong deep layer shear and steepened low-mid level lapse rates,
a few low topped supercells are possible across South-Central
KS/Flint Hills in a potential cold core setup. These storms would
be capable of large hail, a brief tornado or two, and isolated
severe wind gusts. The upper low will track east-northeastward
across Oklahoma tonight and into Missouri on Saturday. The most
likely area for showers/storms will be southeast Kansas tonight
into Saturday morning, within the deformation/wrap-around zone of
the upper low.

The next fast moving shortwave trough is progged to move eastward
across Kansas/Oklahoma Sunday into Sunday night. Marginal Gulf
moisture is progged to rapidly return north as this system
approaches. This will support scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms as the wave moves through, with the most
widespread activity favored in southeast Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The medium range models show another upper trough digging into the
southwest early in the week, forming into a closed low. This system
is projected to be a slower moving system compared to it`s two
predecessors. There is significant spread between the GEFS ensemble
members, although the deterministic 00z/25th GFS and ECMWF were in
fair agreement with the upper low track/timing. A blend approach of
the medium range guidance allows this slow-moving upper system to
move east across the Central/Southern Plains Wednesday into
Thursday, however the exact track/timing are subject to some
adjustments by future runs, given the large spread in the ensembles
beyond Tuesday. A slower moving system should yield a decent chance
for gulf moisture return, along with showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages for late March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Gusty south winds will continue through the night time hours and
into Friday across the region. A frontal boundary will sink
southward into central Kansas Friday afternoon with winds
switching to the northwest and gusty again. Meanwhile some low
clouds in the MVFR range will be possible over southeast Kansas in
the morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Southerly winds gusting to 30-40 mph, above normal temperatures and
near 100% cured grasslands will result in very high to extreme fire
danger from late this morning into this afternoon. The area of
greatest concern at this time is South-Central Kansas, where minimum
relative humidities in the 20-30% range are expected. We have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning there, and
expanded westward into South-Central Kansas from late this morning
through late this afternoon. Cooler air will spread into the region
tonight into Saturday, lessening the fire danger. However, northwest
winds of 10-20 mph will still result in high fire danger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  47  62  43 /  30  40  10   0
Hutchinson      76  44  61  41 /  30  30  10   0
Newton          75  44  59  42 /  30  40  10   0
ElDorado        76  46  61  43 /  40  40  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   77  47  63  44 /  30  40  10   0
Russell         71  40  59  39 /  40  20  10   0
Great Bend      71  40  61  39 /  30  20  10   0
Salina          76  44  59  41 /  40  40  10   0
McPherson       76  43  59  40 /  30  40  10   0
Coffeyville     74  50  63  44 /  40  60  40   0
Chanute         73  49  61  44 /  40  70  50   0
Iola            73  49  60  44 /  40  70  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    73  50  62  44 /  40  60  50   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...JMC


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