Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 240521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER AS OF 3 PM. EARLIER CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY:
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST WAVE OF POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT-TERM HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WICHITA AND
MCPHERSON. EARLIER HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE WAS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
INITIATION...LIKE THE NAM BUT THE MOST RECENT TRENDED FURTHER
SOUTH. KEPT POPS IN SOUTH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING THE BEST GROUPING OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR AND CAPE ARE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL NEAR 1 INCH.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL APPEAR AS MORE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TUESDAY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE FRONT/LOW
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WHICH WAS
ISSUED PREVIOUSLY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING...SEE
DETAILS BELOW. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S BEFORE DROPPING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY:

AFTER QUIETING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
WEDNESDAY RETURNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH PLENTIFUL CAPE
AND SHEAR.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE 60S BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
DIP BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY FRIDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE EXTENDED BEGINS FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST...CLEARING OUT THE PRECIPITATION BY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 50S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM.
HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST MAY IMPACT
EASTERN KANSAS...CAUSING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE
WAVE IS AND AT THIS TIME THAT IS IN QUESTION AND HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY. ANOTHER NICE...ABOVE NORMAL WEEKEND IN THE FORECAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A CLUSTER OF TSRA COVERING MUCH OF SEDGWICK AND MOST OF BUTLER
COUNTIES IN SC KS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AROUND 30KTS/35MPH. PER
THESE TRENDS HAVE REMOVED TSRA FROM KICT & KHUT TERMINALS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. PRESENT MOVEMENT SHOULD TAKE THE TSRA JUST N OF
KCNU BUT AM WATCHING CLOSELY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN TURNS TOWARD
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS & VSBYS ACRS MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM
09Z-15Z...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS DUE N OVER AREAS PRIMIARLY ALONG &
E OF I-35 IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SFC LOW MOVG E/NE. THE LOW SHOULD
REACH THE NC OK/SC KS BORDER ~12Z. SUCH MOVEMENT WOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO PIVOT IN A COUNTER CLOCKWISE MANNER OVER CNTRL KS ~15Z
WHICH WOULD PLACE THE WARM FRONT FROM ERN KS THRU CNTRL MO WHILE A
COLD FRONT RAPIDLY DEVELOPS FROM WRN NEBRASKA...THRU WRN KS...TO
WRN OK. WINDS ACRS ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS TERMINALS WOULD ABRUPTLY
BACK AROUND TO THE N THEN NW BY 18Z AND INCREASE TO 17KTS/20MPH
SUSTAINED. RAPID IMPROVEMENT WOULD OCCUR OVER KRSL...KHUT & KICT
WHERE DRY-SLOTTING WOULD COMMENCE ~18Z BY WHICH TIME ALL TERMINALS
WOULD RETURN TO VFR STATUS WITH KRSL LKLY P6SM SKC BTWN 18Z & 20Z.
KSLN SHOULD REACH VFR STATUS ~21Z. KCNU MAY DROP INTO MVFR COUNTRY
BUT ONLY FROM ~15Z-18Z WHEN CIGS ~2,500FT ARE POSSIBLE BUT QUICKLY
RETURN TO VFR STATUS BY 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXTREME DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL CAUSE GFDI VALUES TO
REACH INTO THE EXTREME RANGE. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. COULD SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING
EXPANDED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY...BUT WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO MAKE
THAT CALL DEPENDING ON LATER FORECAST GUIDANCE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY
NORTH WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  74  43  69 /  70  20   0  30
HUTCHINSON      47  72  42  69 /  70  20   0  20
NEWTON          50  72  43  68 /  80  20   0  20
ELDORADO        52  73  43  69 /  70  30   0  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  76  43  69 /  50  20   0  30
RUSSELL         42  70  37  64 /  50  20   0  10
GREAT BEND      44  72  39  65 /  40  20   0  10
SALINA          44  68  39  66 /  60  30   0  10
MCPHERSON       47  71  41  68 /  60  20   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     53  76  43  72 /  40  30  10  40
CHANUTE         52  73  42  70 /  50  30   0  40
IOLA            51  72  42  70 /  60  30   0  30
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  43  70 /  40  30  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$



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