Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 122012
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
312 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

High-level cirroform cloudiness should slowly diminish from west to
east tonight, with low-level ridge axis keeping fairly light and
variable winds in place. This should allow for min temperatures in
the mid-upper 50s. Lee trough development will occur on Wednesday
leading to southerly flow and temperatures warming to above normal
across the forecast area.

The post-tropical cyclone remnants of Irma are progged to lift from
the Ohio Valley into the Northeast from Thursday into Friday.
Meanwhile, upper troughing will slide southeastward into the western
CONUS. This allow for diurnally gusty southerly winds and
anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures. Afternoon highs both days of 5
to 12 degrees are expected, with the warmest readings in
central/south-central Kansas. Despite the southerly flow, warming
mid-level temperatures should keep most, if not all, of the forecast
area capped and dry.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

The main portion of the western CONUS upper trough is progged to
eject northeast across the Northern/Central Plains late Saturday
through Sunday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding
how far south the associated cold front will make it, with the ECMWF
appearing more aggressive with the southward push compared to the
GFS. The forecast will be close to a blend of these two models for
now, with the more noticeable cooling likely in the north on Sunday.
Scattered, hit or miss thunderstorms will be possible with the front
in the forecast area from Saturday night through Sunday.

Deep upper troughing is progged to reload across the western CONUS
early next week. Southerly flow will redevelop across the forecast
area, with temperatures warming to above normal. There are some
disparities between the medium range model guidance, regarding the
potential for deeper moisture advecting northeastward into the
Central Plains from Mexico early-mid next week, on the backside of
the upper high over the south-central CONUS. For now, will keep
rainfall probabilities no higher than 20-40% by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Quiet VFR conditions anticipated the next 24 hours. Somewhat
breezy northeast winds will persist over eastern Kansas this
afternoon, before subsiding this evening. High level clouds above
20,000 ft associated Irma remnants will continue to stream across
the eastern half of Kansas the next 18 hours or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  90  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      58  91  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          58  89  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        58  88  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   57  88  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         59  93  65  96 /   0   0  10   0
Great Bend      58  93  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          59  92  64  95 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       57  90  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     55  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         55  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            55  85  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    56  87  59  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK



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