Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180844
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
344 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This morning:
Low clouds anticipated to advect/develop rapidly as low level
moisture catches up to sagging front. HRRR once again suggest an
isolated shower/thunderstorm possible over Flint Hills. Otherwise
expect low clouds to generally expand as moisture increases.

This afternoon-tonight:
Very volatile severe weather setup. Some slight differences noted
in moisture/wind profiles tonight which are not quite as textbook
looking as yesterday, but still easily favorable for a higher end
severe weather threat. Wind profile has backed more en masse, but
still maintains good shear/turning. Moisture was shunted a bit
further away than anticipated, but based on forecast winds, should
have no problem returning by late afternoon. The convergence on
the dryline is a bit odd in some models, but still will be
sufficient to initiate storms, and this may facilitate more
discrete cells for a longer period of time. Still some question of
where warm front will be located this period, with NAM a bit south
of others, but that is probably due to its more agressive
precipitation on front during the day. Also a question when storms
would initiate on warm front. HRRR is slower breaking out this
rain, circa 2300 UTC. This seems plausible. All modes of severe
weather are possible this afternoon/evening, and concur with SPC
high risk including the risk for a couple of strong tornadoes.
Still mulling whether to stay at category 4 or increase to 5 in
graphical hazardous weather outlook. Concerns are questionable 700
mb dry intrusion and potential for storms to line out fairly
quickly.

Anticipating that storms will likely congeal in the evening and
given the strong low level jet, will set stage for heavy rain and
possible flooding. Guidance has shifted axis of heaviest rain into
Central KS which is basically opposite of yesterday`s thinking.
Low confidence in this since it will be highly dependent on
amount/location of convection and where effective boundary sets
up. Good moisture will remain in place with dryline remaining west
of the forecast area throughout the night.

Friday-Saturday:
The unknown on Friday will be location of effective surface
boundary. Otherwise dryline remains in Western KS along with upper
low to the west. This will set stage for another round of heavy
rain on Friday afternoon-Friday night. Guidance from RFC also
suggest that minor-moderate flooding is possible if this heavier
rainfall verifies. Later shifts will likely need to hoist flood
watch for Friday-Saturday if these trends continue. Rain will
linger into Saturday over Southeast KS while the west starts to
dry out.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Dry weather anticipated on Sunday with mild temperatures in wake
of departing low. Another system swings in from the north, setting
stage for another round of rain showers/thunderstorms Sunday
night-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

At 05Z a weak cold front draped from Northeast KS, thru Central KS
to just north of the OK Panhandle continued to settle slowly south/
southeast toward Southern KS. The front will pose problems from a
stratiform standpoint early Thursday morning across Southeast KS &
to a lesser extent South-Central KS where lower-deck moisture will
spread north & pool along the boundary. Confidence remains highest
for "low-end" MVFR cigs at KCNU where cigs may even drop into IFR
Country 12-13Z. For now have placed KCNU in "low-end" MVFR cig
status til ~14Z when the onset of 9-13kt southerly winds would
lift cigs late in the morning with the terminal in VFR cig status
by mid-afternoon. The greatest concern shifts to severe TSRA late
Thu Afternoon with the greatest risk occurring at KICT & KHUT
where closest to a "Moderate Risk" for severe thunderstorms. For
now have assigned "VCTS" to both terminals effective 21Z. Note
that very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), damaging winds &
even a few tornadoes are all possible from late Thu Afternoon to
Thu Night. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  63  77  53 /  50  80  70  60
Hutchinson      80  60  74  51 /  60  80  60  50
Newton          80  61  74  51 /  40  80  70  60
ElDorado        81  62  76  54 /  20  80  70  70
Winfield-KWLD   84  65  77  55 /  30  80  70  70
Russell         71  56  69  45 /  70  80  60  40
Great Bend      75  56  71  46 /  70  80  50  40
Salina          76  59  73  50 /  50  80  60  60
McPherson       79  60  73  50 /  60  80  60  60
Coffeyville     85  66  79  61 /  10  80  60  80
Chanute         84  65  78  60 /  10  80  70  90
Iola            83  65  78  59 /  10  80  70  90
Parsons-KPPF    84  66  79  61 /  10  70  60  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS



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