Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 230836
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WIND ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...THEN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/SEVERE RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO THE EAST OF THE DEEPENING
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. COMBO OF GRADIENT
FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...GENERALLY WEST OF K-14...HOWEVER WILL LET DAY
SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY IF NEEDED BY
MIDDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80F SEEM ON
TRACK FOR THE AREA TODAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL YIELD
MODEST INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE
SOME CAPPING...LIFT FROM A LEAD SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION TO MOVE OR
DEVELOP EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
LINGER THRU SUNDAY MORNING TO PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE TURNPIKE
CORRIDOR. THE MAIN CLOSED LOW WILL EVOLVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING SUNDAY AS A DRY-LINE AT THE SURFACE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WHERE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
EXIST AT PEAK HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF ABOUT 45 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME WEAK
CAPPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OR EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY FOCUS A FEW SURFACE BASED
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND PERHAPS A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS
IN A NEGATIVE TILT FASHION. THE ECMWF HAS COME A BIT MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS...DEPICTING THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING
THE DAY TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOOKS TO EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE GFS
SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000
J/KG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE REGARDS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER WIND
FIELDS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
DELAYED INTO THE EVENING TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A
HIGHER END SEVERE EVENT REMAIN IN PLACE...THOUGH THE DETAILS
REGARDING THE TIMING/MODE AND AREAL PLACEMENT WILL HINGE ON HOW
THE WARM FRONT AND DRY-LINE EVOLVE AS THE STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM
EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE INTO SOMETHING MORE QUASI-LINEAR...WITH
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THERE IS THOUGHT TO A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AS CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN MANY OF THE
TOP CIPS ANALOGS. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

A PERIOD OF VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DUE
TO THE RECENT WET AND MILD WEATHER AND RESULTANT GREEN-UP...THE
OVERALL RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER HAS DIMINISHED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  80  59 /   0  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      80  59  80  54 /   0  20  40  30
NEWTON          79  58  79  57 /   0  10  40  40
ELDORADO        80  58  79  60 /   0  10  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  58  80  60 /   0   0  30  40
RUSSELL         83  57  81  49 /  10  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      82  57  81  50 /  10  30  20  10
SALINA          82  59  81  53 /   0  30  40  30
MCPHERSON       80  58  80  54 /   0  20  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     80  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  30
CHANUTE         80  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  40
IOLA            80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    79  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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