Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 172332
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Surface high pressure will build southward across the region for
tonight and shift east of Kansas during the day on Saturday. This
will push the cold front southward into Oklahoma/north Texas
where it will stall out during the day on Saturday. The frontal
boundary will then lift back northward into Kansas as a warm front
on Saturday night which will bring much warmer temperatures to
the region for Sunday. A few record highs could be broken across
central Kansas where readings in the low 90s look possible.
Meanwhile elevated moisture will be transported north of this
boundary and could generate a few showers/storms over far
southeast Kansas into Missouri for late Saturday night/Sunday
morning. Southerly winds will increase Sunday afternoon as the
surface pressure gradient tightens up from deepening surface low
over southwest Kansas.

A strong upper level wave will race eastward across the northern
plains/southern Canada on Sunday into Monday. This will push a cold
front southward across Kansas during the day on Monday, however
daytime highs will still be above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Cooler near normal temperatures look to prevail for
Tuesday/Wednesday as the surface front remains south of Kansas.
There will be some lower end precipitation chances for Tuesday and
Wednesday night, however the better chances of meaningful
precipitation will hold off until Thursday. Long range models
remain in good agreement showing a well pronounced upper level
wave moving across the central plains Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Quiet VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours, as high pressure
settles south across Mid-America inducing light winds and mostly
clear skies. Expecting VFR clouds around 3000-5000 ft AGL to
increase from the southwest Saturday afternoon and evening, in
response to increasing low-level moisture. Conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR or possibly even IFR Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Very high to extreme grassland fire danger levels will affect the
entire region on Sunday afternoon, as strong south winds combine
with very warm temperatures. Widespread very high grassland fire
danger will be possible again on Thursday afternoon next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  71  56  87 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      39  70  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          40  69  54  87 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        40  70  54  85 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   42  72  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
Russell         37  71  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      37  72  52  92 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          37  68  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       38  69  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     42  71  52  82 /   0   0  10  10
Chanute         39  69  50  82 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            39  68  49  82 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    41  70  51  82 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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