Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 061959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

TONIGHT-MON: A WARMING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE CAP
FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING AND FOR MOST OF
MON...KEEPING ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. SO
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MON...
AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SW. BETTER MIXING IS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 MON. THINK MAX TEMPS
FURTHER EAST WILL HAVE A TOUGHER TIME MAKING THE CENTURY
MARK...GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
MOST OF THE HEATING GOING TO BURNING OFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH
MIXING NOT SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MIX OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW
60S.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUE: MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE ROCKIES MID LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MON NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INITIALLY INTO CENTRAL KS FOR MON
NIGHT...WITH IT SAGGING OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER AND
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVEMENT FOR MON EVENING.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO INCREASE MON
EVENING...FOR A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO WILL ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THIS IN MIND.

HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT AND THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WILL BE THE REAL QUESTION.  MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE EAST...WITH THE MAIN MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL KS MON
NIGHT...BUT STORM PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50 OR 54. OUTFLOW CREATED
BY THE CENTRAL KS STORMS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTH...AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FASTER SOUTH MOVEMENT AS WELL.
SO THINK FRONT WILL BE OVER SRN KS BY TUE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO
NRN OK BY TUE AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH ON TUE...WILL PROBABLY LEAD
TO MOST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AFTER THE THE
LINGERING TUE MORNING SHOWERS END.  NOT COMPLETELY SURE EXTREME SRN
KS WILL STAY DRY FOR TUE AFTERNOON..SO WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN
FOR THIS.

THINK THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SRN KS FOR TUE NIGHT...AS 850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES OVER
THE TOP OF THE NRN OK SURFACE BOUNDARY. NOT COMPLETELY SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO CARRY POPS...BUT COULD SEE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF STORMS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 54 FOR TUE NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED
INTO SRN KS. THINK THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL NOW WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NRN OK...SO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED SOME FOR SRN KS.

WED: WITH THE FRONT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION STAYING SOUTH OF
THE AREA...WED WILL PROBABLY END BEING THE MOST PLEASANT DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPS A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN
KS WED NIGHT....WITH THIS AREA OF 315K ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING EAST
INTO AREAS WEST OF I-135 FOR LATE WED NIGHT.  SO WILL KEEP A POPS
GOING FOR THIS ELEVATED STORM CHANCE INTO THU MORNING FOR MOST AREAS
WEST OF THE I-135.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL JULY LIKE TEMPS.  GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE INCREASING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPS. WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE
PLAINS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE. BUT MODELS SUGGEST
DRIER AND WARMER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CAP OFF ANY CONVECTION CHANCES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

WEAK SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KRSL/KSLN. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITH BREEZY WINDS AT KCNU.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  98  74  90 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      72  99  72  89 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          73  97  72  88 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        73  96  72  88 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  98  75  92 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         70 100  69  88 /  10  10  40  10
GREAT BEND      71 101  69  88 /  10  10  30  20
SALINA          73 100  71  89 /  10  10  40  20
MCPHERSON       73  99  71  89 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  96  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
CHANUTE         73  95  74  89 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            73  95  73  87 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    74  96  74  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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