Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210447
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1147 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows two upper level waves
near the 4-corners region moving east across the Rockies. The lead
wave will eject out into the central plains tonight with
showers/storms developing over the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma, as
the low-level jet and moisture advection increases ahead of this
lead wave. Some of this activity will spread northward into southern
Kansas later tonight. Meanwhile the second wave will deepen and come
out stronger then the first wave during the day on Friday. The
moisture transport will increase even more and looks to target
northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southern Missouri. This
will generate widespread showers/thunderstorms which could produce
heavy rainfall at times. Another area of more pronounced
precipitation will develop with-in the TROWAL axis over central
Kansas late Friday afternoon/night and move into eastern Kansas. The
one concern is that if convection goes bigger over central/eastern
Oklahoma on Friday it might cut down on rainfall amounts further
north in our area. However some locations experienced 1-2 inches of
rainfall last night and any additional rainfall in those areas could
easily cause some minor flooding problems with-in the Flood Watch
area.

We could see a few strong storms ahead of the main PV wave dynamics
Friday morning/early afternoon over southeast Kansas with decent
lapse rates/shear aloft. The better environment with higher
instability for severe weather looks to remain further south over
eastern Oklahoma. Cooler than normal daytime highs on Friday will
linger into Saturday behind the departing upper level wave as
northerly winds bring cooler air into the region. The rain will
quickly taper off Saturday morning over southeast Kansas. It will be
a cool start to the day on Sunday with some patchy frost possible
over central Kansas, but a pleasant weather day will be in store
with light winds and the star shining brightly Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Dry and warmer temperatures expected for early next week as gulf
moisture is swept well southward from the weekend system towards the
Yucatan region. It will take a couple of days for the moisture to
recover and make its way back northward to the central plains. Long
range models show a decent weather system materializing over the
western states and pushing into the central plains for Wednesday
night/Thursday. Should finally get the gulf moisture to return and
accompany this system for shower/thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Aviation concerns will be storm chances along with gradually
lowering ceilings.

Showers and storms developed a few hours ago over northern OK and
moved into southern KS as isentropic lift increased along the 305k
surface. Areal coverage is expected to slowly expand overnight
with areas generally along the KS/OK border seeing the greatest
coverage. Some small hail can`t be ruled out of the stronger
storms. KCNU and KICT still look to be the sites most affected
overnight with high confidence that VFR ceilings will remain
through at least 12z. Showers and storms will continue to expand
in coverage Fri as upper dynamics approach the area with some MVFR
ceilings starting to affect southern KS by late Fri morning.
Confidence in IFR ceilings isn`t high enough to run with at this
point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  55  44  58 /  60  80  70  20
Hutchinson      48  54  42  59 /  50  80  70  10
Newton          48  54  42  57 /  40  80  80  20
ElDorado        50  55  43  57 /  60  80  80  20
Winfield-KWLD   51  56  44  58 /  80  90  70  20
Russell         47  55  41  60 /  20  80  60  10
Great Bend      47  53  40  59 /  30  80  60  10
Salina          48  57  43  60 /  20  70  70  10
McPherson       47  55  42  58 /  30  70  70  20
Coffeyville     53  58  46  55 /  90 100  80  40
Chanute         50  56  44  55 /  60  90  90  40
Iola            50  56  44  55 /  50  80  90  40
Parsons-KPPF    52  57  45  55 /  80 100  90  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ069>072-083-092>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL


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