Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161140
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Upper ridging remains in place from the Rockies into the central
and northern Plains. A mid/upper circulation is very evident via
regional radar mosaic along the KS/CO border. This feature has
been the main focus for more widespread shower and storm
development the last few days.

Models remain consistent in tracking the upper impulse over
northwest KS today and over western Nebraska tonight. With models
continuing to agree on the track of the wave, feel confident the
better shower and storm chances will remain west and northwest of
the forecast area. In addition, with less instability than Sat and
a bit more capping, feel that iso showers and storms over southern
KS also look less likely than last couple of days. By Mon evening,
the upper impulse will be tracking over eastern KS and moving into
IA. The NAM does take this feature further south compared to the
GFS and ECMWF, resulting in precip over north central KS. Think
the NAM solution maybe a bit robust but not out of the question
some iso activity may make it into central KS Mon evening.

Confidence remains high in a warming trend starting today and
continuing into next week with above normal temps likely each day.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The main weather story through these extended periods will be well
above normal temps and associated dangerous heat indices. Will
start to see heat indices exceed 100 on Tue and continue to warm
for Wed-Fri. Medium range models do try and bring a cold front
down into the central Plains Sat into Sat night, but confidence in
this making it into our forecast area is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Strong, massive upper-deck ridge covering the Great Plains insures
VFR status for all areas thru Mon morning & likely beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  71  94  73 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      92  71  95  73 /  10  10   0  10
Newton          92  70  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        92  70  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   93  71  94  72 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         95  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
Great Bend      93  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  20
Salina          96  70  97  75 /  10   0   0  20
McPherson       91  70  95  73 /  10  10   0  10
Coffeyville     93  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         92  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            92  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    92  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS



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