Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 310440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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