Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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770
FXUS63 KICT 022141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS AFTERNOON...A VICIOUS CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING A WINTER
STORM (FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA & NORTHWEST KS A BLIZZARD) WAS
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST KS JUST W OF KCNK. THE OCCLUDING
CYCLONE IS RACING NE TOWARD THE CORNERS OF NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA & NORTHWEST MO. A COLD FRONT CURVES SE FROM THE CYCLONE
THROUGH THE HEART OF KS...NORTHWEST OK & WEST TX...TO EASTERN NM.
AREAS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHWEST
& WESTERN PERIPHERIES & HAVE BEEN SPREADING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
KS AS FAR SE AS ELLSWORTH COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

TONIGHT:
THE HIGHLIGHTS ARE 1) WINDS & 2) HOW FAR SE THE SNOW WILL VENTURE
TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. AT THE RATE THE CYCLONE IS SPRINTING NE
WINDS WOULD DIMINISH. (BUT ONLY GRADUALLY FOR THE W/NW GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT.) THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY (UNTIL 6
PM CST) THAT COVERS ALL OF KICT COUNTRY LOOKS GOOD. CONSIDERING
THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST WAS TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FURTHER S/SE ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR AS NORTHEAST RENO...MOST OF HARVEY...AND
NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES ALTHOUGH THE NE SPRINTING CYCLONE
DICTATES ONLY A 15-20% POP ASSIGNMENT FOR ALL 3 COUNTIES. THE
LIGHT SNOW WOULD RAPIDLY VACATE THESE AREAS FROM 9-11 PM.

WED & WED NIGHT:
AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS NE SPRINT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WED MORNING & THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED AFTERNOON A STRENGTHENING
UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE WILL SPRINT SE ACROSS KS ON WED. MOISTURE IS
GREATLY LACKING SO MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SIGNAL THE WAVE`S ARRIVAL. THE NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY
LATE WED AFTERNOON THEN BACK TOWARD THE WEST WED NIGHT. THE
ONSETTING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WOULD BE WEAK. AS SUCH WED NIGHT`S
LOWS WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TONIGHT`S WITH CENTRAL KS
LIKELY DROPPING TO ~15F.

THU-FRI:
A 3RD UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON THU THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES E/SE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
THU NIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SFC
TROFFING WOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SWRN PLAINS. AS SUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS STILL SCHEDULED WITH FRI`S HIGHS LIKELY REACHING
THE LOWER 50S ALONG & S OF HIGHWAY 54/400.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

SAT-SUNDAY NIGHT:
AS THE SWRN U.S. UPPER-DECK WAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES E/SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT & SAT MORNING YET
ANOTHER UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE (THIS ONE MORE COMPACT) WILL SURGE E
ACROSS MT SAT MORNING & THE DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT. THE PERTURBATION
WOULD THEN SURGE SE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUN AFTERNOON. THE
STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE WILL KICK A PRE-COLD FRONTAL SFC TROF SE
ACROSS KS SUN & SUN EVENING. A SUFFICIENT W/NW COMPONENT WOULD
PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

MON-TUE:
COLDER WEATHER RETURNS MON NIGHT AS LOWER-DECK FLOW BECOMES MORE
NLY WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

IFR/LIFR CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KRSL & KGBD TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE MVFR CIGS EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WHILE A FEW FLURRIES COULD MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM. SPEEDS
MAY APPROACH 25-28 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AFTER 08-10Z WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  37  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      22  35  20  44 /  20   0   0   0
NEWTON          23  34  20  44 /  20   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  36  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  38  22  47 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         18  30  13  38 /  30   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      19  31  16  41 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          22  32  18  40 /  40   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  33  19  43 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  40  23  47 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         27  37  22  46 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            26  36  21  46 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    27  39  22  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-
033-047-048.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$



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