Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 261959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED UPPER
60 AND LOWER 70 DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRIVING HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.

THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS HOWEVER THE COLUMN ABOVE THE PBL IS PROGGED
TO REMAIN QUITE DRY/WARM AND A MEAGER LLJ AND RELATIVELY WEAK-
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
CINH. ANY ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON THU ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE OVER
THE ROCKIES EMERGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY.
THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FROPA ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE IMPACTS ON POPS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY. A SLOWER SOLUTION MAY RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THU NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS WHILE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY LINGER/REDEVELOP ALONG
THE DIFFUSE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER IF THE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER POPS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD SPRAWLING FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AREA. MEANWHILE A STATIONARY OR SLOWLY RETROGRADING MID/UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT OF THE
DESERT SW AND APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THU AFTERNOON.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN KS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION AT
KCNU. DID MENTION SOME LIGHT FOG AT KCNU LATE TONIGHT AS RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  70  85 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      69  92  68  85 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          68  90  68  84 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        67  90  67  84 /  20  20  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  92  70  87 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELL         70  94  65  86 /  20  30  70  10
GREAT BEND      70  95  65  86 /  10  30  60  10
SALINA          69  92  68  86 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       69  91  68  85 /  20  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     63  88  67  85 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         63  87  66  83 /  20  20  20  40
IOLA            62  86  66  83 /  30  30  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    63  87  67  84 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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