Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 251721
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO FLUCTUATE GREATLY...ESPECIALLY AT KSLN WHERE
THEY HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4SM FG TO AS HIGH AS 3SM JUST SINCE 12Z.
AS SUCH...KSLN HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INSERT A RELATIVELY WIDE RANGE
OF VSBYS THRU 15Z. SUCH ACTIONS MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED AT KICT WHERE
VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO FLUCTUATE...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. BE ALERT FOR
FREQUENT UPDATES THRU ~15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING BRIEFLY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
TODAY. SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A
SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A NEAR RECORD HIGH AT
WICHITA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN. AN UPPER TROF WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING SUNDAY AND ACROSS MID-AMERICA
ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH PASSAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER FAIRLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE FLOW VEERS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER/MODEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ITS
WAKE HELPING TO FORM A DEEPER MEAN LONGWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER PLAINS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 04-06Z. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS IMPACTING
KCNU. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14-15Z ON SUN WITH VFR
RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      86  58  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          84  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        86  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  60  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         84  55  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  56  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         84  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            84  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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