Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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396
FXUS63 KICT 161041
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE. CONVECTION HAS FIRED AHEAD
OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
EXIT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...ANY REGENERATION AND THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THIS MORNING:
EXPECT THE CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME REGENERATION TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR
NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SHORT-TERM HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THAT SOLUTION. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AND/OR MOVE EASTWARD OVER EASTERN KANSAS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A LULL OF ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

MID-LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
BY THIS TIME...IF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION/CLOUDS ALLOW...EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE EJECTS OUT OVER KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES. THINK THE PRIME TIME FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-135 WILL BE IN THE 6PM TO MIDNIGHT RANGE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL HELICITY/EHI`S. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AND WILL
INCREASE THE HWO RISK TO CATEGORY 4`S AS WELL FOR THE INCREASED
RISK. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...THERE IS THE CONDITION THAT THE
EARLIER DAYTIME CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THIS EVOLUTION AND
FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO WATCH FOR LATER UPDATES FOR ANY CHANGES.

OVERNIGHT:
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXITING BY MORNING.

SUNDAY - MONDAY:
THE UPPER WAVE THAT IMPACTED AND CAUSED THE STORMS TODAY WILL LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY A
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS COOL AND POTENTIALLY RAINY AT LEAST FOR A
PORTION OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT THAT IS KICKED SOUTHWARD WITH THE
WAVE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA AND ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 60S AND LOW
70S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUING MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL
WITH BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS BELOW 2SM. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING.
A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY-LINE/SURFACE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE INITIALLY DISCRETE
AND MORE ISOLATED IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  60  82  57 /  80  60  10   0
HUTCHINSON      75  59  83  54 /  80  60  10   0
NEWTON          75  59  82  54 /  80  60  10   0
ELDORADO        76  61  82  55 /  70  70  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  61  82  57 /  70  60  10  10
RUSSELL         76  54  82  48 /  80  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      75  53  81  49 /  80  60  10   0
SALINA          76  60  82  52 /  80  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       75  59  82  53 /  80  60  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     79  64  84  61 /  70  80  10  10
CHANUTE         79  64  83  59 /  70  80  10  10
IOLA            79  64  82  58 /  70  80  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    79  63  83  60 /  70  80  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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