Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 020553
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WRAP UP ACROSS SW KS AT THIS
TIME...WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST INTO WRN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  ALSO SEEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIDING
THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER CEN OK.  THIS CONVECTION AND RAIN
SHIELD WILL MAKE PROGRESS EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST BY AROUND
23Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS PRECIP BEGINS TO FOCUS INTO
SRN KS.  MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 200-300 J/KG ARE ALSO INCREASING WITH
THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT....SO THINK THE CONVECTION IN CEN OK WILL
RACE NORTHWARD INTO SRN KS AS WELL. BULK SHEAR AROUND 60KTS ALONG
WITH THIS INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS AS THIS
CONVECTION RACES TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. ITS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND SOME WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS.

THINK THIS CONVECTION WILL LAST UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUE. AS ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A PROMINENT DRY SLOT WILL WORK
INTO PORTIONS OF SRN KS EARLY ON TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING
THE WARM SECTOR SHOWERS TO AN END.

AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN...THINK ALL THE PRECIP WILL BE IN A LIQUID
FORM INITIALLY...AS CENTRAL KS SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER
30S. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
CENTRAL KS UNTIL AFTER 09-10Z. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL LIFT NORTHWEST INTO THIS CHANGEOVER AREA...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ONCE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
OCCURS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES JUST NORTH OF I-70 OF 1-2
INCHES AN HOUR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THIS IS WHEN CENTRAL
KS WILL GET MOST OF ITS SNOWFALL....WITH GOING SNOWFALL FORECAST
STILL LOOKING OKAY. SOME CONCERN ON WARM TEMPS KEEPING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LOWER THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT HIGH SNOWFALL RATES WILL
MAKE UP FOR THIS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

TONIGHT:
CHALLENGING EVENING FORECAST. STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...BUT
OVERALL STILL CONSISTENT WITH GOING FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS FOR
TIMING. ENOUGH DRY/WARM AIR TO LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
SLIGHTLY. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN WARM SECTOR AND ALSO INCREASE SNOW PRODUCTION
BRIEFLY IN THE COLD SECTOR. NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN
WARNING AREA FOR 1-2 IN/HOUR SNOW RATES ROUGHLY AROUND 09 UTC...BUT
WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS AT MOST. AROUND 4 INCHES
ANTICIPATED IN EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF RUSSELL COUNTY...WITH
AMOUNTS RAPIDLY DECREASING TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY
DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING
WILL KEEP WARNING GOING AS IS. LARGE DRY SLOT WILL EDGE INTO
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS NEAR DAYBREAK. OF NOTE...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
AGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE BOX WHICH FURTHER
SUPPORTS THE SLOWER ONSET.

TUE:
LARGE DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS
IN THE MORNING...WITH CLOUDS ROLLING BACK IN MIDDAY AS LOW DEPARTS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND LOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...PRIMARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SOME INCREASE WITH SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...COOLER WITH CLOUDS
AND MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE CLOSE
TO OFFSETTING INSOLATION. WINDS REMAIN UP ENOUGH TUE NIGHT TO
AVOID IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

WED-THU:
COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR WED...BUT INCREASING SUNSHINE
AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THU. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

THERMAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL KS AT THE ONSET...SO
TEMPERATURES A TOUGH CALL FOR HIGHS ON FRI. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT...SUGGEST TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON FRI...TRANSIENT
UPPER RIDGE ON SAT-SAT NIGHT AND ANOTHER TROUGH ON SUN. IT APPEARS
THIS LATER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY...GIVEN AREA WILL LIKELY
BE ON WESTERN GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

A RATHER COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY MOVES NORTH. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SHOWER MOVE ACROSS. WILL
ALSO MENTION VCTS FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDED STORMS.

ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A PROMINENT DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN KS EARLY ON TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM
SECTOR SHOWERS TO AN END AND RETURN VFR CIGS TO MOST OF SRN KS.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KS...PRECIP TYPE GETS A LITTLE
MORE INTERESTING AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO GET PULLED INTO THE NW SIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. EXPECT THE SAME REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. BUT WILL START OUT KRSL AND
KGBD AS RAIN AS TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW AFTER 08-09Z AS TEMPS DROP. EXPECT THE
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FOR KRSL/KGBD BY 11/12Z WITH IFR VSBYS AROUND
1SM IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW...FOR KRSL. MOST OF CENTRAL KS WILL STAY IN
THE COMMA HEAD OF THE STORM...WHICH WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS AROUND INTO
TUE FOR CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  45  22  38 /  80  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  42  21  36 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          38  44  21  35 /  80  10  20  10
ELDORADO        40  46  22  36 /  80  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  48  23  39 /  80  10  10  10
RUSSELL         32  34  16  32 /  90  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      32  36  17  33 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          36  40  20  33 / 100  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       37  42  20  35 /  80  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     47  53  26  40 /  90  10  10  10
CHANUTE         45  52  25  38 / 100  10  10  10
IOLA            45  52  25  37 / 100  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    46  53  25  39 /  90  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ047-048.

&&

$$


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