National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KICT 140512
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1212 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

TONIGHT-FRI: DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MOVED INTO THE REGION
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH INTO OK.  BUT EXPECT THIS "COOL
DOWN" TO BE SHORT LIVED...AS 850-700H WARM ADVECTION AND WARMER
TEMPS AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRI. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AGAIN FOR
FRI.  THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH NORTH INTO
NORTH CEN KS TONIGHT...WITH THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTING TO
ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER...KEEPING ANY ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TRY TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KS...BUT WILL STAY NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN ON FRI WILL BE A RETURN OF THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...WITH SFC DWPTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
ERN HALF OF KS. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW HOT FRI WILL
GET...WITH NAM/WRF SHOWING TEMPS AGAIN PUSHING CLOSE TO THE CENTURY
MARK. IF YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS ARE ANY INDICATION...THINK THE NAM HAS
THE RIGHT IDEA AND WILL GE ABOVE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO 100
FOR MAX TEMPS.

SAT-SUN: CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE PLAINS WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS IT SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST
EARLY ON SAT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY
OVER CEN MEXICO WILL DRIFT N-NE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT. LOTS OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE LAYING AROUND AS THIS IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WITH THIS IMPULSE HELPING TO COOL THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT
AFTN/EVENING. MODEL FORECASTED INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A DOWNBURST/MICROBURST CHANCE. BUT BULK
SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL LIMIT A WIDESPREAD SVR CHANCE.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH INTO CEN KS FOR SUN...AS
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.  LOTS OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AS A PSEUDO TRIPLE
POINT DEVELOPS ALONG I-70 ACROSS CEN KS. GFS DOESNT SHOW MUCH OF A
CAPPING INVERSION FOR SUN AFTN...SO THINK STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CEN KS FOR SUN AFTN...WITH STORMS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTH CEN KS UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING...AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-135. GFS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY ACROSS CEN KS...BUT THINK AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR SUN NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A
CLEAR SIGNAL IN THE QPF AND VORTICITY THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  CERTAINLY THIS LOOKS LIKE SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR CEN AND SOUTH CEN KS LATE SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MON-WED: AFTER SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION DROPS SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR BEGINNING OF THE WEEK FOR
MON/TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR
MON...WITH CONVECTION CHANCES SHIFTING BACK WEST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WED/THU WILL PLAY OUT..AS THE GFS
BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
FLOW MORE ZONAL WITH RIPPLES ALONG THE FLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT POP
CHANCES. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR NOW...BUT COULD SEE THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECOMING DRY.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

EXTENSIVE THICK 30,000-35,000FT CIRRUS SHIELD FROM STG TO SVR TSRA
THAT HAVE OCCURRED FROM EXTREME NE CO...ACROSS NW KS & SW NEBRASKA
CONTINUES TO SPREAD E OVER MOST OF KS...ESPECIALLY THE NRN HALF OF
THE STATE. CIRRIFORM DEBRIS SHOULD VACATE PREMISES BY ~15Z. WINDS
THAT ARE SE 10-20KTS OVER CNTRL & SC KS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO DUE
SLY & INCREASE FRI MORNING. SUSTAINED 22KTS/25MPH WITH ~30KT GUSTS
ARE LIKELY ~18Z OVER CNTRL & SC KS WITH SE KS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR
INCREASES FRI AFTERNOON. SCT 5,000FT CUMULUS SHOULD VENTURE TOWARD
SE KS EARLY FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  92  72  91 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      74  92  70  91 /  10  20  30  30
NEWTON          74  91  71  89 /  10  20  30  50
ELDORADO        73  90  71  89 /  10  20  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  91  73  91 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         72  94  69  90 /  10  20  30  50
GREAT BEND      72  93  69  91 /  10  20  30  50
SALINA          74  94  70  91 /  10  20  40  50
MCPHERSON       74  93  70  91 /  10  20  30  50
COFFEYVILLE     75  90  73  88 /  10  20  50  40
CHANUTE         74  91  71  87 /  10  20  50  50
IOLA            73  90  71  87 /  10  20  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    75  90  72  88 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES