Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 262014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK FOCUS AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MID-AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE/MCV
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...WITH ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM NEW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY WASHED OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION IS DRAPED WEST-EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUBTLE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER WELL
INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS IN ENVIRONMENT OF MORE
ROBUST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...IN VICINITY OF OLD
OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE
AFTER DARK. A THIRD AND MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWEST
KS AND NE...AS NEW MEXICO WAVE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. ALL-IN-ALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST
THREAT...WITH ISOLATED 60-70 MPH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AT
LEAST OVER WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ROBUST UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN CONCERT
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE THE
IMPETUS FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY NIGHT. THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE ROUGHLY THURSDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSAGE.
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50--1.00"...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FRI-SAT.

WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR SUN-MON...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION VERIFIES...COULD BE
LOOKING AT A DECENT COOL DOWN BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER AND WEST OF I-135. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. THE
BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  97  73  90 /  20  20  30  40
HUTCHINSON      72  96  72  87 /  20  30  40  50
NEWTON          73  96  72  89 /  10  20  30  40
ELDORADO        73  97  72  93 /  10  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  97  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELL         69  91  68  86 /  40  50  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  92  69  86 /  30  40  50  50
SALINA          72  94  72  88 /  30  30  40  50
MCPHERSON       71  96  71  87 /  20  30  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     73  98  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         72  97  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
IOLA            72  96  72  94 /  10  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




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