Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240845 CCA
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Forecast Highlight:
Thunderstorms anticipated for nearly all areas for most areas thru
next Thu.

Today:
A stationary front has remained positioned along the KS/OK border
throughout the night. Along & north of the front, thunderstorms
havebeen ongoing, the majority of which are the remnants of a
weakening MCS moving slowly east over SW KS. However, a north/south
oriented cluster of thunderstorms is slowly expanding from Kay
County OK to Butler County very close to a weak low-level jet. With
a strong mid-upper ridge situated from the Srn Plains to Nebraska &
IA, mid-level flow has been weak. As such locally heavy rains have
occurred, most notably Kay County OK but rainfall rates are also
increasing in Sumner & Butler counties. As a lower-deck trof slowly
strengthens across Ern CO the sfc-850 mb moisture axis would shift
slowly east across Ern KS. As such thunderstorms should be confined
to primarily SE KS this afternoon.

Tonight:
As a broadening mid-level trof moves slowly east toward the TX/OK
Panhandles drier air would spread NE across most of the CWA early
this evening, keeping most areas rain-free. The exceptions would be
the nwrn-most counties (Russell, Barton & Lincoln) where a lead mid-
level short wave ejecting NE toward, then across, the CO/KS border
will induce thunderstorms to redevelop over these areas. As such a
few thunderstorms may reach the above-mentioned counties very early
Sat Morning.

Rest of the Weekend:
An upper-deck cyclone that early this morning is centered over WA
& OR will strengthen considerably as it surges east across the Nrn
Plains. This would kick a cold front SE that may reach Central KS
late Sat Night. The projected track of the upper cyclone would
likely cause the front to decelerate as it moves further southeast
toward the turnpike. Thunderstorms would therefore increase with
the greatest increase across Central KS Sat Night. Deep-layer shear
remains fairly weak which would keep the severe potential marginal
at best. With a very moist & unstable airmass entrenched across
the neighborhood locally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out. At this time, the highest potential for severe thunderstorms
would be across Central KS Sat Night & Sun where closer to the srn
segment of the strong ewd-surging mid-upper wave.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

With the front, though weakening, stalled in an east/west manner
across KS interacting with a very moist airmass, thunderstorms would
be expected for much of the upcoming work-week. Inherited forecast
addresses this situaton and was therefore kept intact.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected across the area for most locations
overnight into Fri.  SHRA/TSRA beginning to develop near KDDC at
this time just ahead of a line of convection coming east off the
high plains near KGCK. Low level moisture transport out of the OK
panhandle is feeding this renewed convective development, with this
convection expected to make its way east-southeast late tonight into
early Fri morning. Propagation vectors suggests that the strongest
convection will move more SE than E, which would suggest most of
this renewed convection will drift south of the KRSL, KSLN and KGBD
TAFS.  Plan on keeping a VCTS for KHUT and KICT for the 08-12z time
frame, as extrapolation of the convection may lead it to clipping
South Central KS. Still uncertain on how strong the storms will be,
but if they make it to KICT and KHUT then some MVFR vsbys or cigs
may be possible.

After the morning convection, expect VFR conditions to return the
area for FRI afternoon as the frontal boundary begins to lift back
north as a warm front.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  74  98  76 /  30  10  10  30
Hutchinson      95  74  99  74 /  30  10  10  40
Newton          93  73  97  75 /  30  10  10  30
ElDorado        93  73  95  75 /  30  10  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   94  74  96  77 /  30  10  10  20
Russell         95  74  99  70 /  20  20  40  60
Great Bend      96  74  99  70 /  20  20  30  60
Salina          95  75 100  73 /  20  10  20  50
McPherson       95  74  99  74 /  20  10  20  40
Coffeyville     92  72  94  75 /  30  10  10  10
Chanute         92  72  94  75 /  30  10  10  20
Iola            91  72  94  74 /  40  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    92  73  94  75 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...BDK


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