Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 161054
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
454 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING...AS STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTGENESIS GENERATES A DECENT BAND
OF SNOW. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY
SNOW...BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS BAND WILL KEEP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS WITNESSING
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES. WE WILL MAKE A MINOR EXPANSION OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AS
STRONG POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-
NOVEMBER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO KANSAS. HEADING INTO THU/FRI THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECMWF MODEL. THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF POLAR AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD
INTO KANSAS FOR THU/FRI AND WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
AT THIS JUNCTURE. MODELS SNOW NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 451 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

A SWATH OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL IMPACT THE HUT...ICT AND CNU TERMINALS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR WEATHER RETURNING AS THE SNOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTHWESTERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    27  12  27   9 /  90   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  11  26   8 /  50   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  11  25   8 /  80   0   0   0
ELDORADO        27  12  26   9 /  90   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  12  28  10 /  90   0   0   0
RUSSELL         30   8  25   8 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      30  10  26   8 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          29  10  24   7 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  11  25   7 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  13  28   9 /  80   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  13  26   8 /  90   0   0   0
IOLA            26  13  25   7 /  90   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    27  13  27   9 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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