Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATER THIS
MORNING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 12Z AND PUSH
SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 15-16Z.  THIS WILL DRASTICALLY
INCREASE/SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-135. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THINK MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE...BUT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEAR SMALL...GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.  COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE KS TURNPIKE...BUT ONCE AGAIN DRY LOW LAYERS AND LARGE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL ONLY LEAD TO TRACE PRECIP AMOUNTS.  THE
GUSTY NW WINDS AND DRIER SURFACE AIR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS (SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW).  HAVE ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THIS ELEVATED FIRE THREAT...GIVEN THE DRY FUELS
LAYING AROUND.

STILL EXPECTING TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GIVEN DRY AIR/MIXING AND SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.

TONIGHT-MON: SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CHILLY NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING INCREASING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS EARLY MON MORNING.

EXPECT WINDS SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SW FOR THE DAYTIME ON
MON.  THIS WILL LEAD TO NICE MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR A
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY.  COULD SEE MAX TEMPS IN CENTRAL KS
POSSIBLY REACH THE MIDDLE 70S.

KETCHA

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

IF YOU THINK MON IS WARM THAN WAIT FOR TUE...AS ZONAL FLOW
FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. 850H
TEMPS CLIMB TO +15 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO MAX TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 80 AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOW 80S.

AS THIS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES...SO WILL THE 850-700H MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WITH 295-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AS WELL.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR TUE NIGHT.  SO WILL KEEP
CURRENT POPS FOR SRN KS IN PLACE. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON...AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (CAP) MAY
HOLD...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STORM CHANCES.  THINK THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCE WILL BE TUE NIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES...AND LIFT INCREASES.

AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME AROUND TO THE SOLUTION OF A LEE TROF/
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NRN AND CENTRAL KS FOR WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NIGHT.  MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND BULK SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT SOME...BUT AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF IT FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CHANCE FOR WED EVENING/NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
CERTAINLY LOOKS INTERESTING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS FOR THU...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO OK.  ECMWF
AND TO A LESSOR DEGREE THE GFS...SHOW CYCLOGENISIS DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS FRONT AS IT STALLS OVER OVER OK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN OK AND POSSIBLY SRN KS FOR
THU...WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN AND
SE KS INTO THU AS WELL.  NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW FAR TO THE NW INTO
CENTRAL KS THIS CHANCE WILL BE...BUT SHEAR AXIS AND DEFORMATION ZONE
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE SUGGESTS POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS AS WELL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME COOLER AIR WILL BE PULLED
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  NOT EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO STICK AROUND LONG...BUT COULD SEE TEMPS IN CENTRAL KS
FALL BACK TO NEAR FREEZING FOR SAT MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR OVER SC & SE KS TIL ~14Z
WHERE THE JET WOULD LKLY REACH SSW 40-45KTS. THE 2ND FOCUS IS ON
TIMING THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-COLD FRONTAL SFC TROF.
AN ABRUPT S-NW/N WSHFT IS LKLY ALG THE SE-MOVG BOUNDARY CROSSES
KS. THE MOST PRONOUNCED VELOCITIES WOULD OCCUR OVER KRSL & KSLN
WHERE SUSTAINED 22-25KT/25-30MPH SPEEDS ARE LKLY FROM ~18Z-23Z
WITH 30-35KT GUSTS. LOWEST 10,000-13,000FT OF AIRMASS QUITE DRY SO
NO -RA WOULD OCCUR AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF CROSSES THE TERMINALS.
THE STIFF NLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 6-7KTS 23-24Z AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SE ACRS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

 A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE.  THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS...DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DRY FUELS HAS LED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED...AS ANY FIRE WILL QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER ON MON...BUT ONLY DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE RETURN FLOW. WARM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF RAIN BY
THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK SHOULD REDUCE FUEL AS SPRING GREENUP HAS
BEGUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  40  72  47 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  37  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  38  71  46 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  39  72  48 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  40  70  49 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         67  36  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  37  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  36  76  45 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  37  73  45 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  38  70  49 /  20   0   0  10
CHANUTE         68  38  71  47 /  20   0   0  10
IOLA            68  37  70  46 /  20   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    67  38  70  48 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-091.

&&

$$


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