Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 181956
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
256 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Surface front is currently stalled out near the Red River region
over southern Oklahoma, however it is expected to begin lifting
northward later this afternoon and into Kansas by late tonight.
Elevated moisture will spread northeast over top the warm front and
looks to spark off some showers/storms late tonight into Sunday
morning across southeast Kansas and Missouri. Meanwhile much warmer
air and gusty south winds will overspread the region on Sunday, with
daytime highs possibly breaking a few record highs across central
Kansas. A frontal boundary will then sink slowly southward on Monday
with southern Kansas having one more very warm day before the
colder air moves in for Tuesday.

The next upper level wave is now west of California in the eastern
Pacific, models have this system dampening out some as it travels
eastward and reaches the central plains on Tuesday. The
precipitation signal with this system remains rather weak and not
very confident in rain chances across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Rain chances look limited along with cooler temperatures on
Wednesday for Kansas, as upper level ridge builds over the
region. The better rain chances look to target areas northeast of
Kansas where the stronger mid-level moisture should reside for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Decent confidence for better
precipitation chances to arrive later in the week, as long rang
models continue to show a more preferred precipitation signal. We
could even see some strong to severe thunderstorms affecting the
region with this pattern signal by the models.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through 06Z tonight. A warm front is
expected to lift northward through central/eastern Kansas late
tonight through midday Sunday. MVFR stratus will likely develop as
the warm front is lifting slowly through the area late tonight
into Sunday morning, before shifting northeast out of the area at
the end of the forecast valid period. There is a chance for IFR
ceilings in central/south-central KS early Sunday morning, but not
as confident in this range at this time. A developing south-
southwesterly low-level jet may aide in producing marginal low-
level wind shear at the terminals in central/south-central KS late
tonight. In addition, isentropic lift and moisture transport from
the low-level jet may contribute to scattered elevated
thunderstorms over southeast KS in the 09-14 UTC time-frame which
may impact the CNU terminal. Have placed a VCTS there to
accommodate this convection potential based on coverage
expectations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Very high to possible extreme grassland fire danger levels will
affect the entire region on Sunday afternoon, as strong south
winds combine with very warm temperatures. The south winds look to
crank up again on Thursday/Friday with very high grassland fire
danger levels possible for the entire area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    56  87  57  80 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      54  89  54  77 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          54  87  56  77 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        54  87  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   57  87  59  83 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         50  90  47  70 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      52  92  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          51  88  51  72 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson       53  89  53  75 /  10  10   0   0
Coffeyville     52  83  61  85 /  20  20   0   0
Chanute         50  82  60  82 /  30  30  10   0
Iola            49  82  59  82 /  30  30  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  83  60  84 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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