Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 201141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED TO INSERT FOG FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-135.

FOG DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT SOME OF IT WILL BE
DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PROGRESSIVE 500 MB PATTERN...WAS HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
THROUGH TIME...IS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP THIS
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN WAS
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AT 07Z...WITH
RIDGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
WISCONSIN... SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND AREAS EAST.

FOR TODAY...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL
RETURN SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...WITH QPF VALUES UP TO .75 INCHES. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THAT
SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOG THIS MORNING.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KS WHICH IS
EVIDENT BY A WIND SHIFT. JUST AHEAD OF THE CHANGE TO NORTH WINDS
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. THIS HAS AFFECTED AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF I-135 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
14Z. SO KHUT WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SITE AFFECTED. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  52  76  56 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      77  49  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          76  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        77  50  75  54 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  54  75  56 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  47  74  56 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      75  48  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          76  47  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       76  49  74  54 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  50  74  51 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  48  72  50 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            75  48  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    75  48  74  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047-048-
050-067-082-091.

&&

$$






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