Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202030
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS...HELPING TO KEEP THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
COOLER AIR HAS SETTLED IN WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH.
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COUPLE OF WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE...THE FIRST DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY FRIDAY AND THEN A SECONDARY PORTION AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DEVELOPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WIDE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE/QPF THROUGHOUT ALL PERIODS FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THINK THE MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES ARE
MORE LIKELY...BUT HAVE KEPT THE LESSER RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST
SINCE IT IS STILL DAY 2 AND 3. HOWEVER AS MORE RESOLUTION IS
ALLOWED IN NEARER PERIODS...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
ALLOWS...THIS CAN BECOME MORE APPARENT AS THE PERIODS NEAR. COULD
SEE ANOTHER HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEARER THE STATE LINE. HOWEVER...WATCH THIS
PERIOD AS THE FORECAST CHANGES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE EXTENDED REMAINS MESSY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SITS UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES
LIFT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MULTIPLE PERIODS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE
KEEP THE CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT
AS THE TIMING IS TUNED UP SOME IN LATER GUIDANCE IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE APPARENT WHICH OF THE DAYS WILL LIKELY SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES DO TREND WARMER WITH THE CONSTANT
WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD STUNT
THAT TO SOME EXTENT...BUT THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO MAKE WARMER
CONDITIONS FEEL MORE HUMID. CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION
IS RELATIVELY HIGH...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOWER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED DOWN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STRONG ALL DAY AND HAVE CLIMBED TO ABOVE IFR
LEVELS AT ALL SITES. BY 21Z MOST SITES SHOULD BE ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STARTED THINGS OFF
GOING 4-5SM AROUND 09Z WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW DENSE IT WILL
GET. MOST OF THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  66  50  64 /  10  10  20  60
HUTCHINSON      43  65  48  63 /  10  10  30  60
NEWTON          43  64  48  62 /  10  10  10  60
ELDORADO        44  65  49  63 /  10   0  10  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  66  51  64 /  10  10  10  60
RUSSELL         41  64  47  60 /   0  10  50  60
GREAT BEND      42  64  48  60 /  10  10  60  60
SALINA          42  66  48  63 /  10  10  20  60
MCPHERSON       42  65  48  62 /  10  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     46  66  50  66 /  10  10  10  50
CHANUTE         44  65  49  65 /  10  10  10  50
IOLA            44  65  49  65 /  10  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    45  66  49  65 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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