Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 261145
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Today & Tonight:
During the night, a DEEP upper-deck long wave trof that played vital
role in severe thunderstorm development across primarily OK
continued to move E. At mid-night, the long wave was crossing NM &
about to cross the OK/TX Panhandles. The ewd-moving long wave will
continue to push a strong, but slow-moving, cold front SE with the
front not expected to reach the Lwr-MS Valley until this eve. The
front should make sufficient SE progress for the light rain exit
Southeast KS this afternoon. As the cold front continues to push
SE, inverted lwr-deck ridging will punch S. N winds from 15 to 25
mph & extensive lwr-deck stratocu should have temperatures running
on treadmills to some `degree`. We`ll see NE-SW temperature
gradient with coolest highs along the NE corridor of KICT Country.
Clearing skies & diminishing winds would no doubt produce a very
chilly night with the inherited patchy frost across Central KS
makes sense but its anticipated patchy nature dictates "checking
the swing" on Frost Advisory issuance.

Thu-Fri Night:
The anticipated prolonged rainy period is still scheduled to begin
Thu Afternoon as fairly well-defined negatively-tilted mid-level
shortwave pushes E from CO to along the KS/OK border. The shortwave
will shear as it crosses the KS/MO Thu Eve but the "main" but broad
mid-upper deck trof will follow in it`s tracks to enable much longer
duration showers & a few embedded thunderstorms to spread across the
Srn & Central Plains late Fri Night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Headline:
Flooding potential increasing primarily across Southeast KS Sat &
Sat Night.

Sat-Sun:
We`re in for a sopping wet weekend as the afore-mentioned upper-
deck cyclone moves in a more Ely manner across Southwest KS & the
Panhandles Sat Night. As it approaches the Panhandles, intense
sfc cyclogenesis would occur over West TX, thereby inducing strong
"wrap-around" associated rains to occur over the weekend. With
the intense mid-upper cyclone tracking E/NE across Wrn OK late Sat
Night rainfall intensities would increase. As such, the flooding
potential is increasing, especially across Southeast KS where
Flood Watches & Flood Warnings may be required.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Lots of low level moisture remains across most of the forecast area
this morning, with MVFR cigs prevailing at most locations. A weak
impulse overrunning the front will lead to a few scattered showers
moving across southern sections of the area for a few more hours, so
will keep a VCSH in for this chance.

Drier air will begin to work into the area from the NW for the
afternoon hours, which will scour out the low clouds, returning most
locations to VFR for the afternoon and into the evening hours.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    57  39  62  48 /  20   0  30  50
Hutchinson      56  35  60  45 /  20   0  30  50
Newton          55  36  59  46 /  20   0  30  50
ElDorado        55  37  60  47 /  30  10  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   55  38  63  48 /  30   0  30  50
Russell         56  33  58  42 /   0   0  40  60
Great Bend      58  34  59  42 /   0   0  40  60
Salina          55  34  59  46 /  10   0  40  60
McPherson       56  35  59  45 /  20   0  30  60
Coffeyville     56  38  64  51 /  40  20  20  50
Chanute         54  37  62  50 /  40  20  20  50
Iola            53  37  61  49 /  40  20  20  50
Parsons-KPPF    55  38  63  51 /  40  20  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KETCHAM


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