Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 180808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Expanded the patchy fog mention for early this morning across much
of the area, except the far southern-most counties where low-clouds
have yet to clear out. Radiational cooling and wet soils should lead
to at least patchy ground fog development.

Dry conditions are expected today into much of tonight, with our
forecast area in between two upper troughs, one over the great lakes
and a second over the southwest. Some sun should allow highs to be a
few to several degrees warmer than yesterday, although readings
will still be below average.

The weakened upper trough in the southwest is progged to eject
slowly northeastward across the central and southern Plains Thursday
into early Friday. Although the rich Gulf moisture will remain over
south Texas near the old frontal boundary, marginal but sufficient
moisture advection and lift will occur as the trough passes through,
resulting in scattered light rain showers. Very weak instability
could also result in a few rumbles of thunder.

The upper wave is progged to shift east into the Mississippi Valley
by Friday afternoon, as a strong upper low sinks into the
northwestern CONUS. Most of the area should have some sunshine by
Friday afternoon behind the departing upper system. Slightly warming
1000-850 thicknesses support highs in the low-middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Upper ridging will develop across the Plains Saturday before
shifting east Sunday, in advance of the deep upper trough/low
over the western states. Lee troughing/southerly return flow will
lead to temperatures warming to more seasonal readings. Will
maintain low probabilities for elevated convection late Saturday
night into midday Sunday over the central part of the state. This
would be in response to 850 moisture transport into a mid-level
north-south oriented baroclinic zone, however shear looks weak and
capping may keep convective potential suppressed. The chance for
surface-based storms Sunday pm/eve looks to be over the High
Plains closer to the dryline and to the west of our central Kansas
counties. Energy from the western states longwave upper trough, is
progged to come out in several pieces across the northern/central
Plains from Sunday night into early next week. The rich gulf
moisture/instability will finally advect northward into the
Central Plains, while a Pacific front drops southward into the
region intersecting the dryline somewhere across Kansas. This
will likely result in an increased chance for strong storms across
the forecast area with continued seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

At 05Z sct-bkn Stratocu 2,500 to 3,000ft covered SE KS where KCNU
went fm sct-bkn028. W/ KCNU alg NW periphery of the Stratocu deck
have inserted a "TEMPO 1806/1810" group to the terminal. There is
still the potential for areas of ground fog to dvlp acrs Cntrl &
SC KS ~09Z but an inhibitor is that Cirrostratus ~30,000ft is
spreading NE from an upr-deck low centered over the xtrm SE CA/SC
NV/SW AZ bdr. For now have kept fog out of the remaining terminals.
W/ heating sct-bkn Cumulus ~5,000FT wl dvlp acrs KS by 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  48  65  53 /   0  10  50  40
Hutchinson      67  46  64  52 /   0  10  50  40
Newton          68  46  64  52 /   0  10  40  40
ElDorado        68  46  64  53 /   0  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   67  49  65  54 /   0  10  50  40
Russell         69  47  67  51 /   0  10  30  30
Great Bend      68  47  65  51 /  10  10  40  30
Salina          69  46  66  52 /   0  10  30  40
McPherson       68  46  64  51 /   0  10  40  40
Coffeyville     68  48  68  53 /   0  10  40  40
Chanute         67  47  68  53 /   0  10  40  40
Iola            67  47  67  53 /   0  10  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    68  48  68  53 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS



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