Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 022339
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
539 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The main forecast highlights through Monday will be the chance to
see the first snowflakes of the year, primary across central
Kansas, early Saturday morning and then lingering precipitation
through Saturday into Sunday morning.

As longwave troughing continues to dig southward across northern
Mexico this afternoon, water vapor imagery shows an elongated
swath of moisture streaming northeastward across the southern
plains. Tonight as weak warm, moist advection lifts north, cloud
cover will continue to increase. Given the increasing cloud cover
and warming dew point temperatures overnight, have increased
overnight lows a few degrees across the area. With forecast
soundings showing a decent amount of low-level dry air to
overcome, have slowed the arrival of precipitation tonight until
the better isentropic lift arrives around/after midnight.
Precipitation will begin across south central Kansas and spread
northeast into central and southeast Kansas throughout the early
morning hours on Saturday. Given the thermal profiles across the
area, the highest likelihood of seeing snow will be across
central Kansas. Further south, it will still be possible to see a
rain/snow mix; however, the further south you go, the higher the
likelihood of precipitation remaining all rain. Snow accumulations
across central Kansas are expected to remain very light given
ground temperatures, the lack of strong synoptic/mesoscale lift
and thermal profiles look too warm for efficient snow growth.

As we progress through the day on Saturday, the main upper-level
wave out west is progged to split leaving a cutoff low across
northern Mexico, while the main wave continues to track towards
the central Plains. With resulting weak warm air advection
continuing expect cloud cover and rain chances to linger across
the area. However, the best chances for additional rainfall will
come late Saturday through mid Sunday morning as the northern
stream shortwave ejects out of the rockies. We could see a brief
period of rain/snow mix up in central Kansas early Sunday morning,
but the main precipitation type should remain all liquid given the
warmer thermal profile. Also, have included mentions of drizzle
before precipitation exits the region as forecast soundings show
cloud ice diminishing fairly rapidly. Otherwise, throughout the
day on Sunday skies will clear and precipitation will come to an
end from west to east. Seasonable temperatures will prevail both
Sunday and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The main focus for next week turns to the arrival of a bitterly
cold arctic air mass and the *possibility* of seeing accumulating
snow. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to how
precipitation chances will play out next week, so stay tuned for
further updates as we get closer!

Confidence for next week is high that we will experience bitterly
cold temperatures after a cold front pushes through the area early
Tuesday morning. With 850mb temperatures plummeting and a very dry
air mass advecting into the region, a few locations could see
overnight lows next week drop into the single digits with highs struggling
to climb to 30 degrees! However, confidence that we will see
accumulating snow next week is low at this time. Whatever outcome
you`d like to see for the middle part of next week, whether it be
a chance for accumulating snow or no snow at all, you can find it
in one of the model solutions! Among the GFS/Canadian/ECMWF, all
three models show a slightly different story. The GFS paints a
much quicker solution with no snowfall chances. While the Canadian
lags behind a bit and would foster chances for snow across
southern portions of the area. Finally, the ECMWF is the slowest
and would suggest snow would be possible across northern portions
of the area. At this time have opted to keep areawide mentions of
snow on Wednesday due to the possibility, but as mentioned above
keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer and the details
become fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Low clouds will begin to develop over the area later tonight as
moisture advection ahead of approaching upper level wave
increases. MVFR cigs and light rain will begin to fall across
southern Kansas by late Saturday morning and afternoon. Meanwhile
temperatures will be cold enough across central Kansas for snow to
mix in with the rain at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    37  45  36  52 /  30  50  60   0
Hutchinson      33  44  32  51 /  20  50  50   0
Newton          34  44  34  50 /  20  50  60   0
ElDorado        36  45  36  51 /  20  50  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   38  47  37  53 /  30  50  60  10
Russell         30  41  26  50 /  20  30  30   0
Great Bend      31  41  27  50 /  20  30  40   0
Salina          31  44  30  50 /  10  50  50   0
McPherson       33  44  31  50 /  20  50  50   0
Coffeyville     40  49  39  52 /  20  50  60  10
Chanute         37  47  38  52 /  10  40  60  10
Iola            35  46  37  51 /  10  40  60  10
Parsons-KPPF    38  48  39  52 /  10  50  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...CDJ


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