Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 270844
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TODAY: MAIN CONCERN IS HEAT AND POTENTIAL HEADLINES. BASED ON
LATEST HOURLY FORECASTS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
PERSISTENCE...HEAT INDICES WILL FLIRT WITH CRITERIA IN SOUTHEAST
KS AND PROBABLY COME UP SHORT AT REMAINDER OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL MARGINAL CRITERIA BOTH YESTERDAY AND TODAY...WILL
JUST HOIST ADVISORY FOR NOW FOR THE MOST PROBABLE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST KS. OTHER CONERN IS CONVECTION...WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LINGER PAST DAYBREAK
WITH GOOD 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF FORECST
AREA. HOWEVER NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR CHANCES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THIS PAST
EVENING AND TONIGHT ...AND THINK ANOTHER MCS WILL ROLL INTO THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A TOUGH CALL...WITH NO CONVECTION
AND BRISK WINDS...LOWS WOULD BE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80...BUT WITH
CONVECTION...LOWER 70S ARE MORE LIKELY. WITH DECENT CHANCE OF
STORMS...HEDGED CLOSER TO THE LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORTH WHERE
CONVECTION IS MORE PROBABLE.

TUE-WED:
BOUNDARY MAY WORK INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON TUE...BUT IN ABSENCE
OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
BE GIVEN INCREASING HEIGHTS. THIS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES ON TUE
NIGHT. HOWEVER CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER WED/WED NIGHT WITH
GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE...AND NOT ENTIRELY
CONVINCED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE AS FAR SOUTH AS ADVERTISED. EVEN
IF FRONT IS WELL SOUTH...ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
WHERE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON TUE
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE..THEN COOL ON WED BEHIND FRONT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY ON THU...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM.
THE REAL CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AND NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PERIODIC RIPPLES
AND CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF STORMS. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER CHANCES DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...BUT ANYTIME COULD BE FAIR GAME.
INITIALIZATION GRIDS HAD LOW CHANCES FOR MOST PERIODS SO ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO CENTRAL KS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AFFECTING
PRIMARILY RSL AND POSSIBLY SLN. PERIODIC STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO
30-40 KTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
THINKING HUT WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS COMPLEX...AND
MAY NOT BE AFFECTED AT ALL...BUT DID INCLUDE A 2 HOUR TEMPO FOR TS
AND ERRATIC WINDS JUST IN CASE. ICT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ABSOLUTE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF VCTS/VCSH AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALL AREAS MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING
BREEZY/GUSTY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AS LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  78 101  75 /  20   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      98  77 101  72 /  30  10  10  30
NEWTON          96  76 101  72 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  77  98  74 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  77  99  77 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         98  75  94  68 /  30  20  20  50
GREAT BEND      97  75  96  69 /  30  20  20  40
SALINA          99  78 100  69 /  30  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       98  77 100  70 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     95  76  97  76 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         95  76  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    95  77  96  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ070>072-095-096-100.

&&

$$


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