Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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210
FXUS63 KICT 212345
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

For tonight, will maintain a dry forecast with warm mid-level
temperatures and weak subsidence in the warm sector. Above normal
low temperatures look on target with southerly winds.

A shortwave trough over the Northern Intermountain region this
afternoon, will traverse eastward across the Northern Plains tonight
into Wednesday reaching the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday
morning. This will result in a cold front pressing southward into
Kansas Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the boundary stalling
over southern Kansas Thursday. Although a stray thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled out Wednesday evening/night near/north of the front,
convective inhibition should keep most, if not all, of the
forecast area dry. Wednesday should be the hottest day of the
week, with increased southwesterly boundary layer winds/mixing and
pre-frontal compressional heating. Increased maxes a few degrees
with 1000-850 mb thicknesses also rising, forecasting afternoon
highs of 97-105 (warmest-Central KS). The vast majority of the
forecast area looks to remain below heat advisory criteria
Wednesday afternoon, with the Salina area appearing borderline
marginal.

Only slight relief from the heat is projected for Thursday in mainly
central Kansas north of the front, however rich moisture pooling
along/north of the front will keep very humid conditions in place.
20-40% chances for thunderstorms appear reasonable for
Thursday/Thursday night given a very high precipitable water
airmass, strong diurnal instability, and the potential for weak
impulses riding east out of Colorado. The relatively higher
probabilities for storms appears to be along/north of highway
54/400.

The front will lift northward as a warm front Thursday night into
Friday, with gusty southerly winds leading to hot weather returning
to the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

A consensus of the medium range operational runs and GEFS guidance
indicate another upper trough sweeping slowly east across the
Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley this weekend, and into the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley early next week. As this happens, the upper
ridge shifts into the southwestern states by early next week putting
the Central Plains under northwesterly flow aloft. There are
indications of a cold front pushing southward into the Kansas region
late in the weekend. This pattern may result in a period or two
where thunderstorms affect portions of the forecast area from
Saturday night into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Water vapor imagery shows a small but strong shortwave over
northern MT. As this feature continues to track east, a cold front
is expected to make its way south across the Central Plains. By
21z Wed this feature is expected to stretch from southern Iowa
through central KS. Very warm mid level temps will limit
convective chances. Can`t rule out a rogue storm if we can get
enough convergence along the front but confidence is not high
enough at this point to insert into TAFs. So will leave VFR
conditions in place area wide through the next 24 hours.

Lawson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75 101  76  95 /   0   0  10  30
Hutchinson      75 102  74  94 /   0  10  10  30
Newton          74 101  75  93 /   0  10  10  30
ElDorado        74 101  75  93 /   0   0  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   75 101  77  96 /   0   0   0  20
Russell         74  99  70  91 /   0  10  10  30
Great Bend      74 102  72  93 /   0  10  10  40
Salina          76 105  73  92 /   0  10  10  30
McPherson       75 103  74  92 /   0  10  10  30
Coffeyville     74  97  76  95 /   0   0   0  20
Chanute         74  97  76  93 /   0   0  10  20
Iola            74  96  76  92 /   0   0  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    74  97  76  94 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RBL



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