Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 270802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

ISOLATED-SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER...WHERE WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (310K) IS
INDICATED. MUCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
25-45 KT COULD RESULT IN A COUPLE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH A
HAIL THREAT. ANY STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD WANE TOWARD
MID-LATE MORNING...AS THE WEAK LLJ WEAKENS/BACKS.

A WELL-ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST LATE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AS SURFACE-
BASED INHIBITION IS REMOVED FROM HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CONVECTION MAY MERGE INTO
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS TONIGHT...AS A 45 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. A RELATIVELY GREATER STORM COVERAGE
AND HIGHER RAINFALL FORECAST (0.25-0.75 INCH) IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A FEW STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING
WITH HAIL/WIND THREATS.

A SECONDARY VORT LOBE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SCATTERED DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH WEAKENED
INHIBITION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK-MODERATE SHEAR...ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAKER THAN DAY 1.

A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...AND FRONT WHICH MAY HANG UP JUST SOUTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FORECAST 1000-850 THICKNESSES ON THE GFS/NAM-WRF/RAP INDICATE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY...ALTHOUGH LEANED WITH THE MIDDLE OF ROAD
GFS BASED ON IT`S VERIFICATION YESTERDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL SEASONABLY WARM.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A MID-
LEVEL WEAKNESS/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IN OUR AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT VISIBILITY COULD DROP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MVFR CRITERIA. THE TWO TERMINALS
THAT ARE MOST CONCERNING FOR THIS OCCURRING ARE KCNU AND KHUT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREVALENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING AND THE MICRO-CLIMATE AT KHUT COULD CAUSE A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITIES BY MORNING. THE OTHER LOCATION KCNU WILL HAVE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CLEAREST
SKIES...THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
CAUSE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS. THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THIS
FORECAST...BUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KRSL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 00Z.

OTHERWISE...KCNU MAY ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS BY MORNING...HAVE
INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THE POTENTIAL...THE AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED
A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS
THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR PRECIPITATION BY 12Z THURSDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  72  88  66 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  88  64 /  10  40  20  10
NEWTON          92  70  88  65 /  10  40  20  10
ELDORADO        92  69  89  66 /  10  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  72  89  67 /  10  20  30  20
RUSSELL         96  67  87  61 /  50  70  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  67  88  61 /  40  60  10  10
SALINA          94  70  87  62 /  20  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  70  87  64 /  10  50  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  69  87  67 /  30  10  40  30
CHANUTE         89  68  87  66 /  30  10  40  30
IOLA            88  68  86  66 /  30  10  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  87  67 /  30  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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