Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191851
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE IN THE 300-305K
LAYER COULD GENERATE SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALOFT. MEANWHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. STILL
SEEING A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS...WILL SEE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE
SRN KS TAF SITES INCLUDING KICT/KHUT AND KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME
CONDENSATION IN THE MID LAYERS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES...BUT VERY DRY LOW LAYERS WILL KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES TO
MAINLY SPRINKLES. SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY VCSH IN THE TAFS.

BY MON MORNING...WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS CENTRAL KS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  77  52  77 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  75  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          52  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        53  76  51  75 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  77  54  77 /  20  10  10   0
RUSSELL         48  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      48  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          49  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       50  75  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     54  76  52  75 /  30  20  10   0
CHANUTE         53  75  49  73 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  75  48  73 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  75  50  74 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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