Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 250244
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF
CURRENT NORTHERN KS AND NE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY FOCUSING ALONG/NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KS. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS
THIS FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS IN
CONCERT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL MID-UPPER FORCING SHOULD KEEP
BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY EVENING RAOBS WILL
SUPPORT A HANDFUL OF MOSTLY UNORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

FURTHER SOUTH...GIVEN LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND THE ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM-GENERATED
COLD POOLS WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY...CANNOT RULE OUT WEAKENED
ACTIVITY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH/EAST AS ROUGHLY HUTCHINSON-NEWTON-
HILLSBORO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN FIRMLY PLANTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WHILE THE H7 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. A CAPPING INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT/TOWARD SAT MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KS.

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES AND ALONG A WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO RESIDE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE HIGHWAY 36
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE ABOVE 105
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
WESTWARD NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR ALL OF SE KS. THE NAM/GFS ARE BOTH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXING...DRIVING AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS
SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO TOP OUT AROUND 100 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SUN-MON...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUN-MON AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON SUN BUT THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A VIGOROUS
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP BREAK
DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WHILE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT SLN-RSL. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED EAST-WEST
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KS...WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN
ITS VICINITY. THINKING BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF SLN-RSL...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS MAY BE SUGGESTING
OTHERWISE. CONSEQUENTLY...MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO AMEND SLN-RSL
TAFS TO INCLUDE VCTS OR EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS THIS EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77 100  76  99 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  99  76  99 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          75  98  75  98 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        78  98  76  97 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  99  75  99 /   0  10  20  10
RUSSELL         73  98  74 101 /  20  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      73  98  73 100 /  20  30  40  20
SALINA          77  98  76  99 /  20  30  30  30
MCPHERSON       75  98  75  99 /  10  20  40  20
COFFEYVILLE     76  99  76  98 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            77  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  99  76  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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