Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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317
FXUS63 KICT 151936
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE STORM CHANCES SATURDAY...THEN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN IT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD.

ALTHOUGH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS PM/EVE
SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED DUE TO AN ILL-DEFINED DRYLINE WITH
CONVERGENCE QUESTIONABLE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LACKING.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...LIKELY GENERATING AREAS OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN KS/OK
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY WEAKENING AS 850 WINDS BACK
DIMINISHING MOISTURE INFLOW. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING CAN OCCUR EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION
AREAS...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG APPEAR REASONABLE WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS OF 50-55 KNOTS AT A SUFFICIENT ANGLE TO THE DRYLINE TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WOULD DEVELOP
LATE SAT PM/EVE AS THE STRONG UPPER VORT LOBE SHIFTS OVER WESTERN
KS. AGAIN...THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT ON CLEARING/RECOVERY OCCURRING
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT IN CONCERT WITH THE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AXIS...WITH STORM MODES POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE LINEAR.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH AFTER 03-05Z.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG/WEST
OF INTERSTATE 135. ANY LINGERING STORMS IN SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD END
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR IN.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THIS MEAN
UPPER TROUGH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...NORTH OF THE OLD SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
STORM CHANCES TO THE KANSAS REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AS THE
CURRENT DECK OF ALTO CUMULUS CLOUDS ERODES IN THE EAST. LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE I135 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR TRW LATE THIS
EVENING AND TIL AROUND 08Z. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE
VICINITY OF A DRY LINE IN WESTERN KANSAS AND PROPOGATE EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE I135 AREA. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO
USHER IN A DECK OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE ALONG THE
DRY LINE AND PROPOGATE EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  76  62  82 /  30  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      64  77  60  83 /  30  60  50  10
NEWTON          64  75  62  82 /  30  60  60  10
ELDORADO        65  76  63  82 /  30  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  77  63  82 /  30  60  60  10
RUSSELL         64  77  55  81 /  40  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      64  76  54  81 /  40  50  50  10
SALINA          65  76  61  82 /  30  50  60  10
MCPHERSON       65  76  61  82 /  30  50  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  66  84 /  10  60  80  20
CHANUTE         66  79  65  83 /  10  60  80  20
IOLA            65  80  66  83 /  10  60  80  20
PARSONS-KPPF    66  79  65  83 /  10  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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