Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160138
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
738 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

AM AWAITING THE 00Z MODEL DATA TO MAKE A FINAL DECISION...BUT MAY
NEED TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. NUMEROUS
GUIDANCE OPTIONS...INCLUDING THE 18Z NAM/GFS...SREF SNOW
PROBABILITIES AND THE PAST SEVERAL HOURLY RAP13 RUNS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOLID 1-3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
CULPRIT IS A STRONG AREA OF 700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. EACH LOCATION WILL LIKELY
SEE ROUGHLY 3-5 HOURS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW. THE
WICHITA METRO LOOKS TO BE AFFECTED BETWEEN ROUGHLY 5-9AM. IF THE
00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THIS CURRENT SCENARIO (WHICH SHOULD BE
GETTING INTO OUR SYSTEM SOON)...WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDING THE
SOUTHEAST KS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER A GOOD CHUNK OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
CHAUTAUQUA...MONTGOMERY AND LABETTE COUNTIES THAT WILL BE IN
EFFECT ALL DAY SUNDAY.

TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS ARE PROVING A BIT MORE CHALLENGING THAN THOUGHT AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE UPPER-DECK TROF THAT CURVES FROM ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TO IDAHO IS FORECAST TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. THIS CHARACTER IS NOW FORECAST TO SWING SOUTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT THEN ACROSS KS & OK ON SUNDAY. AS
SUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWS REACHING INTO ADVISORY COUNTRY IS
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SOUTHEAST KS
POSITIONED BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100-110KT 300-MB
JET 2-3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS NOW APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
AS SUCH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST KS
COUNTIES BORDERING OK FOR SUNDAY FROM 6AM-6PM WITH THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT INITIALLY APPEARED THAT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE ISSUED FOR HARPER AND POSSIBLY
SUMNER COUNTIES BUT IT APPEARS THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER
WAVE...NOT TO MENTION WEAKER LIFT...WOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT DURATION...BUT UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES AS THE WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM OK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO WHERE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED. AS THE DEEPENING
MID-UPPER TROF QUICKLY APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY...THE SNOW OVER
SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD END QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER
TROF WILL SWEEP ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KS
NEIGHBORHOOD TONIGHT BUT THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE
WILL HAVE FILTERED INTO KS. ON TUESDAY...THE CANADIAN-ORIGINATING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE GLIDED EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THEREBY
ENABLING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO KS AND PRODUCE WARMER
WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE CROSSES THE PACIFIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS BUT WITH A BROAD MID-UPPER TROF FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE...A
SURFACE TROF WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE `DEGREE` AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...AREAS OF SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. NOT
EXPECTING A PROLONGED EVENT...WITH EACH SITE RECEIVING LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW FOR ABOUT A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD. SNOW
SHOULD REACH SLN-RSL BY 8-10PM AND END BY 12-2AM WITH UP TO ONE-
HALF INCH POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD REACH ICT-HUT BY 4-6AM AND END BY
8-10AM WITH AROUND ONE INCH POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOULD REACH CNU BY
5-7AM AND END BY 11AM-1PM...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. IFR
WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ICT-HUT-CNU...WITH
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT SLN-RSL.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  29  17  29 /  40  50   0   0
HUTCHINSON      17  29  14  27 /  40  30   0   0
NEWTON          17  28  15  26 /  40  30   0   0
ELDORADO        19  28  16  27 /  40  50   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  28  18  30 /  60  70   0   0
RUSSELL         13  30  12  26 /  30  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      14  30  14  27 /  40  20   0   0
SALINA          14  29  14  26 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       15  28  14  26 /  30  20   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     24  28  17  29 /  40  70   0   0
CHANUTE         22  27  16  27 /  30  50   0   0
IOLA            22  26  16  27 /  30  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    23  27  15  29 /  30  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ098>100.

&&

$$



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