Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 030002
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TONIGHT:
INITIALLY WAS CONCERNED OVER FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-35 AS WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN OVER SNOW COVER. UPON
CLOSER EXAMINATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCARCE...WITH 40 DEGREE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL SOUTH OF RED RIVER. 2-5 MILE VISIBILITIES
IN FOG IS MORE LIKELY...WITH MUCH LESS CERTAINTY ON DENSE FOG.
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT NEGATIVE FACTOR IN ADVECTIVE FOG
PRODUCTION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH
EARLY EVENING MINIMUMS.

TUE:
REALLY TOUGH CALL ON TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KS WHERE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY. CLOUDS VS WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND LINGERING SNOW WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE DAY.

TUE NIGHT:
TEMPERATURES IN COLUMN CONTINUE TO COOL IN THE EVENING WITH SMALL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MOST AREAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. CHANCES
FOR SNOW MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS...DUE TO
COLLABORATION/CONSISTENCY.

WED-THU:
ANOTHER CHILLY DAY ON WED WITH REBOUND STARTING BY THU...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. WARMUP ON THU WILL
BE MODERATED BY WEAK FLOW...RECIRCULATED AIR AROUND LARGE SURFACE
HIGH AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLUTION. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LITTLE CHANCE FROM INITIALIZATION GRIDS. HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT MODEL
SOLUTIONS EARLY THIS PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN TROUGH TO
DIG A BIT MORE AND BE SLOWER COMING OUT THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
REGARDLESS...WARMING TREND TO AT LEAST CLIMATOLOGY SEEMS LIKELY IN
THE MORE ZONAL FLOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO IFR. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED...THOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

EXTENSIVE SNOWCOVER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONERNS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  49  19  28 /  10  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      29  48  17  28 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          30  48  17  26 /  20  20  20  20
ELDORADO        31  49  19  27 /  20  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  51  20  30 /  20  20  40  40
RUSSELL         30  42  14  28 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      29  44  15  28 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          30  46  15  29 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       29  48  16  28 /  10  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  52  22  29 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         33  51  20  27 /  20  30  30  30
IOLA            33  51  19  26 /  20  30  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    33  51  21  29 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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