Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181951
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Upper ridge will build over the area the next couple of days and
likewise the heat. Diurnally gusty south winds will continue as
well, especially along/west of the turnpike. Low level mean
temperatures and thickness values show a gradual rise day over
day through Friday, so plan to use modified persistence for the
max temperatures. The main challenge will be the diurnal trends
in surface dew points in combo with the heat each afternoon for
the feels like heat index values. For now it looks like most
locales will range from 100 to 104F with the Salina area more
likely to exceed 105F on a daily basis. So the current excessive
heat warning looks fine there. For the rest of the area, the
extended period of daily max heat indices above 100F will require
a heat advisory which will run for now through Friday and may be
extended with later forecasts.

In the immediate short term, there is a slight chance that some of
the late day convection across the high Plains may venture close
into west central or north central Kansas, so will retain a very
small PoP north of I-70 this evening/tonight.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

While there are some differences on the timing and amplitude of an
upper trof moving from south central Canada across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes over the weekend into early next week, there is
general support in its result of a decent cold front dropping
south across Kansas Sunday into Monday. This should break the heat
and also provide some precip chances as well.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Expecting VFR conditions to persist through the forecast valid
period. A persistent lee trough will maintain a southerly wind
component, with diurnal gusts around 25 knots at times for most
terminals. Some possibility that a few storms may try to develop
near a convergence axis over northwest Kansas early this evening,
with a slow southeastward propagation tonight. If storms manage
to develop, a thunder mention may become necessary at the RSL and
GBD terminals for a few hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      75 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          75 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        74  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   74  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         74 102  75 103 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      74 101  75 102 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          77 104  78 105 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       75 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     72  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         72  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            72  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    72  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033-047-048-
050>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC


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