Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 221723
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1123 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT A SHARP...STRONGLY POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ALL THE
WAY TO BAJA CA. DOWNSTAIRS...NORTHERLY FLOW OVER KS SHIFTS TO NE
OVER OK. BOTH ARE OPERATING IN TANDEM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINS
ACROSS OK AS HAD BEEN EXPECTED FOR THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE UPPER-DECK TROF DISCUSSED IN THE "SYNOPSIS" WILL MOVE EAST
FROM AZ...CROSSING WESTERN KS AND NM THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXTEND
FROM NORTHERN MO...ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO WEST TX
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN A NW-SE MANNER BUT A LOWER-MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SCOOTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA WILL INDUCE SURFACE TROFFING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO EASTERN
CO TO ASSERT ITSELF...THEREBY ENABLING LOWER-DECK FLOW TO QUICKLY
ASSUME A SW COMPONENT. WHILE TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL (LOWER 40S) THE RETURNING SW FLOW WOULD INHIBIT TEMPERATURE
DECREASE TO SOME `DEGREE` WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S FOR ALL
AREAS.

THIS WEEKEND:
THE QUESTION BY FAR IS HOW WARM THE NEIGHBORHOOD WILL GET AS W-NW
FLOW DOMINATES IN RESPONSE TO A 2ND MID-UPPER DECK SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL SURGE SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THIS CHARACTER WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT CROSSES THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS (FASTER) AND THE ECMWF AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. THE GFS TAKES THIS CHARACTER ACROSS THE
MID-MS VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE ECMWF POSITIONS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. REGARDLESS BOTH PROMOTE A RESPECTABLE
W-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THAT WOULD RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED
WARMUP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. HAVE RAISED SATURDAY`S MAXES TO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH MID 50S
ASSIGNED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL NO DOUBT BE GREATEST.) IF
THE GFS VERIFIES WITH ITS MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THEN SUNDAY`S
MAXES MAY APPROACH 70F. WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE MAXES INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S BUT HAVE KEPT INHERITED FORECAST HIGHS INTACT.

NEXT WEEK:
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE `DEGREE` OF WARMUP FOR
TUESDAY AS A STRONG(!) NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES
CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BUT A RESPECTABLE (IN TERMS OF SPEED) WEST TO
NORTHWEST 850MB FLOW WILL PROMOTE A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. FOR NOW
HAVE RAISED TUESDAY`S MAXES INTO THE 60-65F RANGE WITH THE WARMER
MAXES NO DOUBT ASSIGNED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. IF THE
GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT...MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S MAY RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF
MVFR CEILINGS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. KHUT/KICT/KCNU WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE LOWER CEILINGS.
KCNU WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT THE KHUT AND KICT TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  24  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      44  24  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  24  47  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  24  46  31 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  24  47  30 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         43  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      44  23  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  23  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       44  23  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  25  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         44  24  45  30 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            43  24  44  30 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    45  23  45  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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