Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 111829
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
129 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTION
AND DEWPOINTS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR PICKING UP SEVERAL SMALL
FIRES FLINT HILLS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS DUE TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND.
VISIBLITIES AS LOW AS 2 MILES REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE THE TEMPERATURES...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
TODAY AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE...NAM/ECMWF/RUC/HRRR ALL KEEP SOUTHEAST KANSAS DRY. THUS
HAVE REMOVED CHANCES FOR TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S POSSIBLE. THERE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
WARM SECTOR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST THAT WAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WHOLE STATE ON SUNDAY...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SUNDAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGH THE COLUMN
THAT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES
BEFORE MELTING COMPLETELY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH IN ON MONDAY QUICKLY BEHIND THE ONE THAT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE SOUTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE NEAR NORMAL MID
60S.

THE CONCERN WITH THIS COLD AIR SURGE...IS THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE
GROWING SEASON. MANY FLOWERS AND PLANTS HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM AND
THIS COLD SURGE WILL CAUSE FROST AND OR A FREEZE TO BE A CONCERN.
WATCH THIS PERIOD IF SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS A CONCERN. PERIODS TO
WATCH WILL BE MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE BULK OF THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VFR CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE VEERS FLOW TO
A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION 00-03 UTC...DRAWING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM GULF...WITH NAM/GFS MORE BULLISH THAN RUC. SREF
CEILING AND VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES INDICATES 60-80 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST MVFR FOG AND STRATUS ADVECTING INTO ALL
TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 06-09 UTC...WHICH MESHES WELL WITH GFS AND
NAM MOS. SREF AND MOS GUIDANCE FURTHER SUPPORT IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
BY 12 UTC AT KICT...KSLN AND KCNU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
LOWER...BUT INCREASING WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL CAUSE FIRE DANGER TO
BE VERY HIGH. OF COURSE IF ANY SHOWERS BREAK OUT ON SATURDAY
DURING THE DAY...THIS WOULD DIMINISH THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  85  64  72 /  10  20  20  60
HUTCHINSON      56  85  62  69 /  10  20  20  50
NEWTON          56  82  63  69 /  10  20  20  60
ELDORADO        57  81  63  73 /  10  20  20  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  84  64  73 /  10  20  20  60
RUSSELL         55  81  58  58 /  10  20  30  50
GREAT BEND      55  84  58  61 /  10  20  20  50
SALINA          57  81  61  64 /  10  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       55  83  62  66 /  10  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     60  80  62  73 /  10  10  20  80
CHANUTE         58  80  62  72 /  10  10  30  80
IOLA            58  80  63  71 /  10  10  30  80
PARSONS-KPPF    59  80  62  73 /  10  10  30  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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