Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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539
FXUS63 KICT 091706
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1106 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE NW FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT...THE STOUT WINDS YESTERDAY WILL SLACKEN SOME
TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. BUT NOTICEABLY LESS WIND THAN
YESTERDAY.

EXPECT BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER
50S. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 60S AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SW. FAVORABLE
THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST BUMPING UP MAX TEMPS SOME IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KS GIVEN THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

EXPECT A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE...AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED FOR
THU THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THU....WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS DROPPING
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

EXPECT ANOTHER MODERATING TEMP DAY ON FRI...AS THE NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT INTO SUN. MOST OF THE
COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE
EAST OF THE PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL OOZE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL
OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
A COLDER SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK BY ANY MEANS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE LIMITING ANY KIND OF PRECIP CHANCE TO AREAS EAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. SOME QUESTION ON PRECIP TYPE...AS THE MODELS
ARENT HANDLING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR FROM SAT VERY WELL. FOR NOW
WILL MENTIONS OF WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...BUT WITH THAT SAID
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FROM
NEBRASKA THIS PM/EVE...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVE.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BROKEN-OVERCAST 6,000-8,000 FT AGL DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF NEBRASKA...INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE FLINT HILLS. THINK A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL
EXIST FOR THIS AREA...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY FUELS...LOW
RH VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  25  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      43  25  63  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          42  24  58  25 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        42  24  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         40  24  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      43  25  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          40  23  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       42  24  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  23  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  21  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            38  20  49  22 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  21  54  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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