Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 141718
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1118 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Today:
The light rain that has been occurring across primarily Southeast
KS during the night is about to exit this part of the KICT County
Warning Area at 2 AM CST. With NW flow, albeit light, continuing
to advect drier air into KS all light rain should vacate Southeast
KS by 5 AM CST. Although drier lower-mid level air will continue
to advect SE, a fairly deep upper-deck shortwave that is about to
cross the NM/TX border will continue to spread considerable cirri-
form cloudiness NE across most of KS. However warm start dictates
keeping inherited maxes intact.

Tonight-Thu Night:
We`ll have nice weather throughout these periods as strong upper-
deck ridging spreads slowly east, crossing the Northern Rockies
Tue Night & Wed & then across the Northern Plains Wed Night-Thu
Night. The NW mid-level flow will slowly back to a westerly comp-
onent as a weak mid-level shortwave ventures east across the NM/TX
border on Thu. The developing sfc trof would induce S-SW sfc flow
to spread across KS to produce a pronounced warmup on Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Fri-Sat:
Warm weather continues as the afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave
continues to strengthen as it moves further into the Southern
Plains, causing the sfc cyclone to likewise strengthen. Highs both
Fri & Sat will be 15-20 degrees above normal but no records are in
"jeopardy".

Sat Night-Mon:
Still anticipate gradually more active weather as a deep upper-deck
cyclone moves slowly east along the Mexico/AZ/NM border. This would
allow a 100-110kt jet max to sprint NE across KS. With markedly
increasing moisture surging NE into KS, chances for showers &
thunderstorms should increase considerably from Sun Night-Mon
Night. It now appears the greater potential for strong & possibly
severe thunderstorms may occur over the Southern Plains but stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

A storm system moving across the Southern Plains will keep some
mid and high clouds across much of Southern Kansas through this
evening before clearing tonight. Northerly winds gusting to around
20 knots at times will become light and WNW tonight with VFR
prevailing across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

The grassland fire will be kept in check today as northerly flow
remains fairly weak. Although winds will back toward the west and
southwest on Wed they will remain light. Therefore the grassland
fire danger would remain low across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      53  28  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          52  28  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        53  29  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   52  30  53  33 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         54  26  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      53  26  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          54  27  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       52  27  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     53  31  51  30 /  20   0   0   0
Chanute         54  29  50  31 /  10   0   0   0
Iola            53  29  50  31 /  10   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    53  30  51  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...EPS



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