Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301654
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
OTHER THAN SOME MID CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE
EDGE OF MCS TRACK TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIBBLE SMALL POPS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER.

WED-WED NIGHT:
FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MESSY THIS MORNING...WITH MODELS
MUCH MORE DIVERGENT WITH BOTH TIMING OF UPPER RIPPLES AND LOCATION
OF RESULTANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES. FAR EAST MAY SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS MO...AND THEN INCREASING
CHANCES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. NOT
SURE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME CAP BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
MAKE IT A CLOSE CALL. HEDGED A BIT COOLER ON MAXES IN SOUTHEAST KS
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/WETTER SOILS. WILL BROADLY DRIBBLE
POPS EAST OF I-35 FOR CLIMATOLOGY/WARM SECTOR/MCS POTENTIAL WED
NIGHT.

THU:
WIDE RANGE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS THIS PERIOD...RANGING
FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN OK. SO IT IS ANYONES GUESS
WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE. THAT LED TO THE SHOTGUN APPROACH
FOR POPS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES RAMPING UP THU NIGHT.
CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS ARE LIKELY. HIGHS ARE EQUALLY
CHALLENGING...BUT HEDGED WARMER AT MOST LOCATIONS...THINKING
MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OVERALL THEME IS A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF WESTERN RIDGE...WHICH IN
THEORY COULD/SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST. THIS
ALSO MIGHT ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS
WELL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF COURSE ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FINER
DETAILS...WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. THAT SAID...TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WPC GUIDANCE RATHER THAN
THE INITIALIZATION GRIDS WHICH CHASE CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THOSE DAYS/AREAS WHEN PRECIPITATION
APPEARS LESS LIKELY. - HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PLUME OF SMOKE/AEROSOLS FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTH AND SETTLE OUT A
BIT IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW 10SM ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KCNU TERMINAL AT TIMES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE OR AUGMENT THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT MOVING
SOUTH INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD. SO HAVE SHOWN A BACKING SURFACE WIND ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WITH VCTS AT KSLN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76 100  72 /  10  10  20  20
HUTCHINSON      99  75  99  69 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          98  75  99  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  75 100  71 /   0  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  76 100  72 /   0  10  20  30
RUSSELL        101  74  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      99  75  98  68 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          99  74  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       99  75  98  69 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  96  74 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         94  73  96  72 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            94  73  95  72 /  10  20  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    94  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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