Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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477
FXUS63 KICT 092028
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH DAILY
TEMPERATURES UNDERGOING A ROLLER COASTER EFFECT...AS THE NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AND PUSHES A COUPLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS KANSAS. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY NICE WARM-UP FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
HEARTLAND...HOWEVER ANOTHER WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF A SECOND FRONT RACING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...WITH A CONTINUATION OF UP AND DOWN
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...GFS/ECMWF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
A UPPER LEVEL WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS ON SUNDAY THROUGH
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER POOR...MAINLY DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN KEEPING THE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHED WELL SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
THEREFORE ANY MOISTURE RETURN WOULD BE MORE SHALLOW YIELDING EITHER
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. OTHERWISE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
ALLOW MUCH WARMER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD ACROSS KANSAS
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FROM
NEBRASKA THIS PM/EVE...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVE.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BROKEN-OVERCAST 6,000-8,000 FT AGL DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF NEBRASKA...INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  65  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      25  64  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          24  62  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  62  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  65  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         24  60  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  64  28  47 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          23  58  26  42 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       24  62  27  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     23  60  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         21  57  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            20  56  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    21  59  25  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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