Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220830
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE IS WIND ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY...THEN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/SEVERE RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A TRANQUIL
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST IS NEEDED WITH
MAXS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
AND INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF. THE COMBO
OF GRADIENT FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AT
LEAST WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL YIELD MODEST INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AID
LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT TO MODEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES. A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING SUNDAY AS A DRY-LINE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 55 TO
60F RANGE ARE EXPECTED CREATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 TO
50KTS WITHIN A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
EXPECTED.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS
ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN STRONGER WIND FIELDS AND
INSTABILITY LOOK TO EVOLVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WITH
A HIGHER END EVENT VERY PLAUSIBLE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE
WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE PLAINS
BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
VACATING EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT THAT
THESE CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW VFR SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2000FT TO HINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL. HAVE
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5SM BR AT KSLN THIS MORNING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTIONS
OF BR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

DESPITE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT GREEN-UP OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  49  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  49  81  59 /   0   0   0  20
NEWTON          75  49  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        76  50  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  50  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  52  83  58 /   0  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      75  52  82  58 /   0   0  10  30
SALINA          75  49  82  59 /   0   0   0  30
MCPHERSON       75  49  81  58 /   0   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     77  50  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         76  49  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            75  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMR
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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