Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 160449
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

For tonight:
Isolated to perhaps small clusters of strong-severe storms may
develop near the surface trough over western Kansas late this
afternoon/evening, where strong heating and localized areas of
convergence exist. Some of this activity could possibly affect
counties along/west of highway 14 before diminishing late tonight,
although a better signal is indicated from northwest Kansas into
central Nebraska on the nose of a developing low-level jet.

Tuesday-Thursday:

The mean, upper trough over the western states will begin sliding
eastward affecting the Plains. A strong pv anomaly over the Desert
Southwest this afternoon, readily apparent in GOES-16, 6.95 um
imagery, is progged to eject northeastward, out over the
Central/Southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, as
additional upper level energy digs into the northwestern CONUS. By
Tuesday afternoon, a dryline should extend southward across western
Kansas to near the western Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle border.
An elevated mixed layer will be in place ahead of the approaching
wave, providing capping through at least early afternoon, over a
potentially very unstable warm sector east of the dryline. This cap
appears most likely to be breached from 21-00Z into the evening
hours, as low-level winds back, providing dryline convergence
with increased ascent from the approaching strong pv anomaly
aloft. Although low clouds are possible in the warm sector into
the afternoon hours, most models indicated sufficient
clearing/destabilization just ahead of the dryline to support
isolated to widely separated severe storm development. 45-50 knot
southwesterly, deep-layer shear vectors will overlap the dryline
and warm sector, with capes of 2500-3500 j/kg. This supports
supercell storm mode for any storms in the late afternoon/evening,
possibly evolving into a cluster or two overnight with lingering
strong-severe storm potential in southeast KS early Wednesday
morning. Bottom line: severe weather is possible across mainly
central /south-central Kansas, and although storm coverage is
expected to be limited, those few locales that get impacted could
receive large to very large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a
tornado mainly in the late afternoon/evening hours Tuesday.

A relative lull in storm potential is expected from midday Wednesday
into midday Thursday, with a frontal/dryline intersection setting up
Thursday afternoon in the vicinity of central/south-central Kansas.
The next chance for strong-severe storms will be Thursday afternoon
into especially Thursday night, as the next strong pv anomaly
rotates out of the upper trough, interacting the with
frontal/dryline boundaries, and very rich Gulf
moisture/instability. Locally very heavy rainfall/flooding
potential could materialize Thursday night, especially if the
12z/15th ECMWF were to verify.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

The upper trough is progged to gradually weaken as it lifts slowly
eastward across the Plains during this extended period, with the
medium range models differing on the details. The consensus is for
storm chances to continue, highest probabilities in southeast
Kansas, tapering off to lower in central Kansas, with a cool-down to
more seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017

VFR will prevail tonight with increasing LLWS through the early
morning hours. MVFR ceilings may arrive after 10-12Z with
continued moist southerly low level flow. Some transient MVFR
ceilings may linger into the day on Tue before scattering out by
early afternoon. Widely scattered storms are anticipated after
22-24Z across Central & South Central KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  82  62  82 /  10  30  60  10
Hutchinson      67  81  61  81 /  10  40  60  10
Newton          67  81  62  80 /  10  30  50  20
ElDorado        67  81  63  81 /  10  20  60  30
Winfield-KWLD   67  82  63  82 /  10  20  60  20
Russell         66  86  59  80 /  20  40  60  10
Great Bend      65  84  59  81 /  20  40  60  10
Salina          68  83  63  80 /  10  40  60  20
McPherson       67  81  62  80 /  10  40  60  10
Coffeyville     65  82  65  83 /  10  10  50  30
Chanute         65  81  64  82 /  10  10  50  40
Iola            65  81  64  81 /  10  10  50  40
Parsons-KPPF    65  82  65  82 /  10  10  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MWM



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