Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 171959
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This afternoon and tonight...

The main question remains the timing and location of the
development of thunderstorm activity. The current run of the
models continue to show a strong cap in place early this afternoon
which will delay the onset of convection until later. Most of the
short range models are starting to come to a consensus for
developing convection after 3 PM this afternoon in northeast
Kansas then move south in to the CWA by the evening. This
convection will be driven by strong forcing of a cold front coming
through from the north along with some very good moisture
transport. There is a concern that an outflow boundary from some
convection Oklahoma will provide some extra forcing in Southern
Kansas near sunset. Models are indicating some very good moisture
transport with this boundary as well. This indicates the two
boundaries will likely collide in Southern Kansas after seven
tonight which could significant enhance the convection for a time
increasing the intensity of the convection. All models are
indicating a good chance for severe weather today with large hail
and high winds being the primary threats. Very heavy rain is also
possible, especially in Southern Kansas.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Northwest flow will take over Sunday morning and cooler and drier
air will push into the region. Temperatures will stay much closer
to normal for Sunday and Monday. Winds will shift back around to
the south Monday afternoon. The southerly flow will allow the
temperatures to warm back up above normal and moisture transport
will again resume into the region. This time however, the humidity
level will not be as high as today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Wednesday looks to be the next day in which there will be decent
chance for precipitation. Moisture transport into the region looks
good as is instability but, the best instability and moisture is
a little far to the north. Forcing in the CWA is mediocre at
best. As such, do not see severe weather at this time but a more
moderate to strong thunderstorm activity for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Another frontal system will begins to move through
the region on Thursday night which brings another chance for some
shower and thunderstorm activity. Moisture and shear do not look
as good but there appears to be enough instability and forcing to
allow form scattered strong storms. Can`t rule out the possibility
for some severe weather either. Most of this activity is expected
in the Northern portions of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The main aviation hazard will be severe thunderstorm potential
late this afternoon/evening.

Isolated to scattered severe storms are expected to develop along
a southwest-northeast oriented front, from central Kansas to
northern Missouri late this afternoon. The storms should evolve
into multiple clusters this evening, as they migrate southward
across south-central/southeastern Kansas. Damaging winds and
isolated occurrences of large to very large hail will be the main
threats through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
common with these clusters. The strongest convection should push
south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border after 05Z, with lingering
post-frontal showers/thunderstorms overnight. Clearing should
occur Sunday with surface high pressure building in behind the
front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   101  67  83  62 /  10  60  10   0
Hutchinson     101  65  83  59 /  20  50  10   0
Newton          99  65  81  60 /  20  60  10   0
ElDorado        96  65  81  59 /  10  70  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   99  68  83  61 /  10  60  10   0
Russell         97  61  82  59 /  10  40   0   0
Great Bend      99  63  82  59 /  10  40   0   0
Salina         100  64  83  60 /  20  50  10   0
McPherson      101  64  82  59 /  30  50  10   0
Coffeyville     95  70  83  61 /  10  70  40   0
Chanute         94  68  82  60 /  10  80  30   0
Iola            94  67  82  59 /  10  80  30   0
Parsons-KPPF    94  69  82  60 /  10  70  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ092-
093-098>100.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ091-092-094>096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...JMC



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