Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 230442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND EXCEEDING 105 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THAT BISECTS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED BETWEEN 103 AND 109 THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE NEXT WAVE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA AS THE WAVE LIFTS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE WAVE ROTATES IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA A COUPLE OF TIMES. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...WITH
LIMITED CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT FEEL BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT FROM THE EARLIER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND NEAR TO JUST EXCEEDING 100.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOOKS TO COOL DOWN SOME FOR THE EXTENDED AS
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THE COOL DOWN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE BOUNDARY AND THUS PRECIPITATION AROUND
LONGER THAN THE GFS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF LABOR DAY
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ON ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70...POSSIBLE AFFECTING KRSL
AND KSLN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH COULD BRUSH THE KRSL TERMINAL
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MORE REMOTE
ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 100  73  98 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          75  99  74  99 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        75 100  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75 100  74 100 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         73  98  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      72  99  73  95 /  20  20  20  20
SALINA          74  99  74  97 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       74  99  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  99  73  99 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  99  73  99 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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