Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 090424
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

TONIGHT-WED:
FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...SO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE SLIM. ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE
INCREASES BETWEEN 1200 UTC-18 UTC WED...WITH BEST CHANCE
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...BUT DEPENDING
ON MOISTURE RETURN COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO CENTRAL KS.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY MAINLY DUE TO LESS
CLOUDS.

WED NIGHT-FRI:
A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WED NIGHT-THU AS SUPPORT
ALOFT IS BETTER WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN. DRIER/WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRI. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

12 UTC ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AND
LIMITED TIME FOR COLLABORATION DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES. APPEARS
THAT GFS HAS COME AROUND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. FRONT APPEARS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MON...BUT SOME SIGNAL FOR OVERRUNNING/RETURN FLOW COULD SPREAD
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA ON MON NIGHT/TUE. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MID-LEVEL ACCAS MAY DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT RSL/SLN/HUT
AFTER 03Z...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY AFFECTING ICT AND CNU TOWARD OR
AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  88  68  90 /  10  10  40  30
HUTCHINSON      63  89  67  91 /  10  10  40  30
NEWTON          63  86  66  87 /  10  10  40  30
ELDORADO        62  86  66  87 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  89  68  90 /  10  10  30  30
RUSSELL         61  88  67  94 /  10  10  40  20
GREAT BEND      61  88  68  94 /  10  10  30  20
SALINA          63  90  67  90 /   0  10  40  30
MCPHERSON       62  88  67  90 /  10  10  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     63  88  67  88 /  10  10  20  30
CHANUTE         62  86  67  86 /  10  10  20  30
IOLA            62  85  66  85 /  10  10  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  67  87 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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