Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 230524
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

SOME LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES REMAINING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH SOME
LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA AND PERHAPS SOME POCKETS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARD
MORNING. TRENDED LOWS DOWN WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 2-3 DEGREES
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO 9-10 NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS TO AROUND 10 BELOW
AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH LIMITED
INSOLATION AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITHIN
AN INCREASING MID LVL WAA REGIME. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
PROGGED TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD LEADING TO
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUE AND WED. HIGHS ON WED ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OR MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATE
IN THE PERIOD. A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. A
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRI-SUN. THE ONSET MAY BEGIN AS SNOW
WITH MIXED-PHASE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT     7  23  16  42 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON       4  23  15  43 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON           3  22  16  41 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO         4  22  16  41 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD    9  23  16  42 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELL          3  23  15  44 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND       4  22  15  44 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA           2  25  17  43 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON        3  23  16  42 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     10  24  17  41 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE          7  24  16  40 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA             5  23  15  39 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF     8  24  16  41 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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