Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 151155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TODAY:
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THIS MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING IN CENTRAL KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRAY THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE NEAR CORE OF CIRCULATION...BUT LIKELY TOO FEW TO WARRANT
A MENTION IN GRIDS. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL MORE LIKELY END
PRIOR TO COLUMN GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO SNOW THIS
MORNING...BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL IN THE VICINITY OF LINCOLN/SALINA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CUT INTO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
BUT WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT AND A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY FALLING REALLY LOW
TONIGHT.

TUE-WED:
MORE SUNSHINE FOR TUE AS RIDGE MOVES ACROSS...BUT LIMITED MIXING
AND COLD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN THE DIURNAL RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES AND WILL SET UP A CHILLY TUE NIGHT. SOME RECOVERY ON
WED...BUT COMBINATION OF RECIRCULATED COLD AIR AND INCREASING
CLOUDS... NOT EXPECTING MUCH DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE ON WED/WED NIGHT...WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO ITS MAGNITUDE/DEPTH. SUSPECT RETURN IS
A BIT OVERDONE EARLY...WITH DAYLIGHT HOURS MORE LIKELY TO BE
DRY...THEN DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT. IF MOISTURE IS AS
STRONG AS 0000 UTC MODELS SUGGEST...COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SUSPECT LOWS THU MORNING MAY BE TOO COOL
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW THIS PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH CHANGES IN UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD AND RESULATANT
SURFACE FRONTS. 0000 UTC RUNS HAVE TURNED QUITE A BIT WETTER FOR
THU-FRI...WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT PAN OUT. TRACK OF LOW...RESULTANT
MOISTURE RETURN...WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
LATER FORECASTS. AT THIS POINT...CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP AT LEAST
LOW POPS GOING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IF PRECIPITATION PLAYS OUT AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO COOL AND MAXES A BIT
WARM. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

AREAS OF (+)RA & A FEW ISOLD TSRA CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND A
COMPACT LOW CENTERED ALMOST IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN KSLN...KMPR...
KEMP & KMHK AT 11Z. CIGS FROM ~700-1500FT CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW ALONG WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS THAT`LL
GREATLY INCREASE BY 13Z ACROSS ALL OF CNTRL & SC KS. WITH THE SFC
CYCLONE SCOOTING NE ACRS THE MO/IA BDR LATE THIS AFTN ALL WRAP-
AROUND ASSOCIATED -RA WOULD VACATE CNTRL KS AROUND 18Z WITH CIGS
LIFTING BACK TO VFR STATUS (~3500FT) BY ~21Z. NW WINDS SUSTAINED
FROM 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS ~35KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF CNTRL &
SC KS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT OCRG ~16/00Z.
WITH KCNU SITUATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC CYCLONE
WINDS WOULD FAVOR A W/NW COMP AT A SUSTAINED 20-25KTS. FROM 16/00Z
ONWARD VFR CIGS & VSBYS WOULD BE REALIZED OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  26  39  23 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      43  24  38  19 /  20   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  25  38  22 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        44  26  38  22 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  27  41  23 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         40  22  35  19 /  30  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  22  36  20 /  20   0   0   0
SALINA          43  24  36  20 /  70  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       43  24  37  20 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     53  31  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         52  29  39  21 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            53  28  39  22 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    53  30  40  21 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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