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000
FXUS63 KICT 171106
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
606 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

OVERLOOKED LOCALLY +FG OCCURRING OVER EXTREME SE KS WHERE KCFV & KCNU
ARE REPORTING +1/4SM. CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING +FG ADVISORY FOR TIME
BEING BUT THIS FACET OF FORECAST WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING. STILL
ANTICIPATE DISSIPATION ~9AM. CORRECTED FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY )
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT:
STILL ANTICIPATE (+)TSRA POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FROM SUN TO MON WITH
GREATEST POTENTIAL TICKETED FOR SE KS DURING THESE PERIODS.

UPR-DECK TROF IS MOVG E OVER CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROF WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN & TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES
SAT NGT & SUN. IN THE PROCESS...A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP
FROM SW KS ACROSS THE ERN CORRIDOR OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO W TX & WILL
PUNCH E ACROSS WRN OK SAT NGT THEN RETREAT LATE SAT NGT & EARLY SUN
DURING WHICH TIME A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH SE ACROSS NW KS.
ALL WILL PLAY VITAL ROLES IN (+)TSRA DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF KS. MANY
TSRA MAY BE SVR SUN & SUN NGT WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL SHIFTING E OVER
SE KS SUN NGT AS AFORE-MENTIONED UPR TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS OVER
NEBRASKA & SD. MADE CHANGES TO POPS...WX & QPF TO REFLECT EWD PROGESSION
OF MOST FACETS OF EVOLVING PATTERN...NAMELY TO EXPAND CHC POPS FURTHER
SE SAT NGT & SUN MORNING. INHERITED TSRA GAMEPLAN FROM SUN AFTERNOON &
SUN NGT LOOKED GOOD & THEREFORE RETAINED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MID-UPR CYCLONE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES...THEN
CROSSES...UPR MS VALLEY MON NGT & TUE NGT. HOWEVER...THE ATTENDANT
WAVE EXTENDING S/SW ACROSS KS WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE. AS SUCH CHCS
FOR TSRA REMAIN HIGH ACROSS ALL OF SE KS INCLUDING THE FLINT HILLS...A
FEW OF WHICH MAY STILL BE SEVERE. CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA STILL
SCHEDULED TO END OVER SE KS ON TUE IN W-E MANNER AS THE POTENT MID-UPR
WAVE VACATES THE PREMISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AND DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LED TO AREAS
OF LIFR DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG/E OF THE KS TURNPIKE AND EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO IFR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  67  86  68 /  10  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      85  67  85  67 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          83  66  85  69 /  10  10  20  30
ELDORADO        82  67  86  69 /  10  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  67  87  70 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL         86  68  88  65 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      86  70  88  64 /  10  20  20  30
SALINA          84  65  87  69 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       85  66  86  68 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     81  65  87  70 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         81  65  85  70 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            80  65  85  71 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  86  70 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

$$