Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 131805
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
105 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

A frontal boundary, reinforced to some extent by convective
outflows, is progged to be draped from west-central Kansas,
northeastward to near I-70 in eastern Kansas this afternoon.
Ongoing, mainly post-frontal convection may exhibit some diminishing
trend this morning, given weakening moisture transport and
ascent. A mid-level vort lobe over northeast Colorado will slide
east over north-central Kansas by this evening. With rich moisture
pooling along/north of the front and moderate-strong diurnal
instability developing, isolated to scattered storms should
redevelop this afternoon/evening, affecting our central Kansas
counties. Our northwestern-most counties in central Kansas should
see some relief from the heat today just behind the front,
however most of the forecast area will remain within the influence
of the stout low-level thermal ridge axis, in the sweltering
heat. Fully expecting afternoon highs around 100 degrees again in
much of south-central Kansas, with mid-upper 90s in the southeast.
Upon collaboration with adjacent offices, will issue a heat
advisory for far southeast Kansas for today, with that area having
the least chance of dewpoints dropping below 70F.

As an upper trough moves from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Great Lakes through Friday, the front should begin to very slowly
progress southward tonight through Friday across central/eastern
Kansas. Clusters of showers/storms will likely continue along and
north of the front, where high precipitable water will be pooling.
The storm chances could linger into Friday night/Saturday,
especially in the south, although the front will be tending to
weaken. Some relief from the heat is expected Friday into this
weekend area-wide, with temperatures falling back to more
seasonal normals (Highs in lower 90s). Isolated strong wind gusts
and small pockets of heavy rainfall may be associated with the
strongest storm clusters today through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

The GEFS, ECMWF ensembles, and Canadian all indicate that the upper
high over the western states, will spread east over the central
Plains Monday through Wednesday. This will likely lead to a return
of above normal temperatures, including triple digit heat, and very
slim to nil rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Challenging forecast with front currently quasistationary just
north of KHUT and south of GBD and then meanders east to just
south of EMP. Front will likely be focus for widely scattered
storms late in the afternoon and evening, with potential to fester
or redevelop towards daybreak once again. Given week flow aloft,
storm propagation could be erratic. NAM suggest low/MVFR ceilings
behind front tonight, but track record of late has not be been
good enough to include at this time. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   100  73  92  72 /  10  20  30  30
Hutchinson     100  71  91  70 /  20  40  40  20
Newton         100  72  89  69 /  10  40  40  30
ElDorado        98  72  89  70 /  10  30  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   98  74  93  72 /  10  20  30  30
Russell         92  66  89  68 /  40  60  30  20
Great Bend      95  67  89  68 /  30  50  30  20
Salina          99  70  90  70 /  40  50  40  20
McPherson      100  70  90  69 /  20  40  40  20
Coffeyville     98  73  91  70 /  10  20  30  30
Chanute         97  72  88  69 /  20  40  40  30
Iola            96  71  87  68 /  20  50  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    96  73  89  70 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ072-095-096-
098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PJH



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