Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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893
FXUS63 KICT 101706
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1106 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH
DAILY TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE...AS THE
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AND PUSHES A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS KANSAS. EXPECT BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY SURFACE WIND WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 60S...GIVEN THE GOOD COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEEK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING. COULD EVEN SEE
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SW.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THU...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY A BIT TRICKY ON THU...WITH COOLER
TEMPS OVER NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WESTERN SECTIONS
STAYING ALOT WARMER.

EXPECT ANOTHER MODERATING TEMP DAY ON FRI...AS THE NW FLOW REGIME
REMAINS IN PLACE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL OR EVEN A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHEN IT COMES
TO HANDLING THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR...WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE SOLUTION
EVEN DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S. WILL USE A BLEND IN MODELS
FOR NOW WITH MAXES IN THE LOW 40S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR
EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED OR SHALLOW IN NATURE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE
PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WITH
LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. SOME QUESTION ON PRECIP TYPE...AS THE MODELS
ARENT HANDLING THE SHALLOW COLD AIR FROM SAT VERY WELL. A WARM
NOSE PUSHES OVER THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR FOR EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR EARLY SUNDAY
GIVEN THE LACK OF MIDDLE SATURATION/ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW
FORMATION AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...BUT WITH THAT
SAID...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SO NOT EXPECTING HUGE TRAVEL
IMPACTS.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...AS
RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS...WITH WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT
WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION INDICATED. MOST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS AT LEAST HINTS OF IFR/MVFR DECKS DEVELOPING OVER SNOW-PACKED
AREAS OF NEBRASKA/IOWA...DRIFTING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED IFR/MVFR
DECKS IN CENTRAL KS FOR NOW...AND LET EVENING SHIFT FURTHER
EVALUATE TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. EXPECT A LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
AS THE TEMPS INCREASE...WHICH WILL CREATE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND MOST OF SOUTHERN KANSAS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  28  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      68  27  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          67  27  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        66  27  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  29  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         60  26  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      65  28  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          62  26  43  30 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       65  27  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  26  46  28 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         61  24  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            60  23  42  26 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    61  25  45  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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