Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

876
FXUS63 KICT 251147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An upper low over northeast Oklahoma early this morning, will
slowly eject eastward today, reaching central Missouri by 06Z
tonight. A few small clusters of showers should linger mainly to
the east of I-135 today, as vort lobes pinwheel around the upper
low circulation. The cyclonic low-mid level height field curvature
should allow low clouds to hang tough over central/eastern Kansas
today, and therefore, have reduced high temperatures accordingly.
Low clouds may linger tonight with possible stratus build-down,
according to a consensus of short range model data. This seems
plausible with a lack of a mechanism to scour the boundary layer
moisture out beneath a temperature inversion around the 800 mb
level.

The next upstream upper trough approaching southern California,
per 6.5 um water vapor imagery, will dig into the desert southwest
today, then ejecting across the south-central Plains Sunday into
Sunday night. A consensus of model guidance has the warm sector
staying just south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. However, fairly
strong 850 mb moisture transport with marginal elevated
instability targets south-central and southeast Kansas. Combined
with moderate- strong ascent with the upper trough, this should
result in a fairly widespread convective rainfall occurring mainly
in the south. A few rain showers could linger in the east Monday
morning, with dry weather expected Monday afternoon and night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The next in a series of upper troughs is progged to be digging
over the Southern Rockies Tuesday, before moving slowly eastward
across the Central/Southern Plains Tuesday night through Thursday.
The ECMWF and Canadian appeared to have better recent continuity
and agreement with this system compared to the 00Z/25th
deterministic GFS. The slower and deeper look to this upper trough
should provide a good chance for a widespread convective rainfall
event across much of Kansas. Locally heavy rainfall appears
possible. Seasonal late March temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Numerous rain showers will linger through mid-late morning across
eastern Kansas, as an upper low exits to the east. Widespread IFR
to MVFR ceilings will gradually become MVFR everywhere toward
mid-late morning, and persist through this evening and tonight
across eastern Kansas. Breezy northwest winds will also gradually
subside as the day goes on.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Grassland fire danger will range from moderate to high, during
mainly the afternoon hours today through Monday. The next weather
system will move through the Southern Plains late Sunday through
Sunday night, with a good possibility for fairly widespread
convective rainfall in the south, with slightly lesser
probabilities in the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  42  70  48 /  20   0  50  80
Hutchinson      48  40  68  46 /  20   0  40  80
Newton          49  41  66  46 /  30   0  30  80
ElDorado        52  42  68  48 /  30   0  30  80
Winfield-KWLD   53  42  72  50 /  20   0  50  80
Russell         49  38  64  42 /  10   0  30  60
Great Bend      49  38  65  42 /  10   0  40  70
Salina          48  40  65  45 /  20   0  20  70
McPherson       48  39  67  45 /  20   0  30  80
Coffeyville     56  43  72  51 /  40   0  20  80
Chanute         54  41  69  50 /  50  10  10  80
Iola            53  42  67  49 /  60  10  10  80
Parsons-KPPF    55  42  71  51 /  50  10  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JMC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.