Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180154
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
854 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Trough that moved eastward yesterday is just off to the
east over the Midwest. A subtle wave in the lee of the Rockies
thanks to the southern extent of the lagging trough shall be the
influence for convective activity this evening in the High Plains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Remnant convection that developed across wrn KS is weakening as it
moves into Central KS.  Not sure how far east this weakening
convection will make it, as it slowly outruns the instability.

Low level moisture transport does increase over SW KS late this
evening into the overnight hours. this could lead to additional
storm development for areas west of I-135 late tonight. So storms
further to the west, over wrn KS may actually increase some as they
move east-southeast.  Will keep pops going in Central KS for a few
more hours, but think that the convective chances will eventually
shift south into South Central KS late tonight or early Sun morning,
as propagation takes the wrn KS storms into North Central OK.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Forecast challenge - First question is the eastward extent and
track of the precipitation off to the west tonight. Second
question is the potential for fog in the Flint Hills and southeast
Kansas as well as its respective timing.

The trough just off to the west will be the main player for the
evening. Severe thunderstorms are anticipated in the High Plains
given greater forcing. Western Kansas and Oklahoma appear to have
the best chance and there has been development of such storms
already this afternoon. As mentioned, there is a question of
whether or not any strong or severe storms could poke into central
and south central Kansas. There is a nudge to the north in the jet
to bring it back across the eastern half of Kansas after 6z. A
couple of models have agreement for south central Kansas to get
something later this evening into the overnight. It is uncertain
at the coverage and the strength of any storms. Discrepancies
exist on the moisture transport, yet CAPE and shear are present.
Once again the better instability shows across Oklahoma.
Confidence is not high with the coverage and strength of any
storms that would move in.

After the foggy morning, the question becomes will there be anything
in southeast Kansas or the Flint Hills given a similar set-up. Moist
surfaces followed from the abundance of moisture after precipitation
during the past couple of days certainly make it a possibility.
However, the heating from today with clear skies will have dried
out some of the moisture. Model soundings suggest there will be
some fog with light boundary layer winds late tonight into the
early morning. This could of course be influenced by any
convection that may move through during the same time frame, but
the storms may be limited to the counties on the OK/KS border.
Better confidence is there could be some fog opposed to the
convection at least at this juncture.

High pressure is allowed to prevail for the first half of the
week. Warmer air in place given the southern placement of the
system puts highs around the 90 degree mark which is another
reminder of summer despite the approaching fall equinox. The
ongoing forecast represented current thoughts with slight
adjustments only to the first 24 hours of the forecast given the
discussed challenges.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Similar expectations show for a system to move from the Pacific
Northwest in the middle of the week. A weak wave is swatted east in
advance of the main trough; therefore the slight chances of precip
remain for that time frame for the northern half of the state.
Models suggest a track further south and a delay in the timing
for the main system than their previous solutions. Next weekend
could be interesting with possible severe weather. This delay in
timing keeps pushing the ability to handle what is going to happen
as it falls at the very end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

VFR conditions are expected for at least the first 6 to 9 hours as a
ridge of high pressure over the Ozarks slowly shifts east of the
area.

Light and variable winds underneath the ridge axis across SE KS may
lead to areas of fog near the KCNU taf site with MVFR vsbys, but
could see vsbys drop to IFR by around 10z near KCNU. so will
will go with a tempo group for this chance.

Further to the west, return low level moisture flow on the west side
of the ridge will lead to convection over wrn KS slowly shifting E-
SE late this evening.  Think the overall propagation will be to the
SE, but think a few showers/storms may make it into Central KS. So
will go with a VCTS for this chance for KRSL and KGBD. Low level
moisture return may also lead to some MVFR cigs across srn KS
between 10-16z/Sun.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  85  68  92 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      61  86  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
Newton          61  85  67  90 /  10  10   0   0
ElDorado        62  84  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   63  86  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
Russell         59  87  63  91 /  30   0   0   0
Great Bend      59  87  63  92 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          61  86  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson       60  85  66  91 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     62  85  67  91 /  20  20  10  10
Chanute         61  84  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            61  84  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    62  84  67  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BDK
SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...BDK



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