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000
FXUS63 KICT 250822
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

FIRST CONCERN IS SOUTHWARD TURNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
SOUTHEAST NEB. CURRENT CORFIDI VECTORS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
VEER EAST-NORTHEAST INTO KTOP AND KMKC AS THE EARLY PROGRESSES.
THIS WILL KEEP THIS COMPLEX TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST. SOME
CONCERN ABOUT THE WRN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM BACKBUILDING INTO CEN
KS...BUT WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS CEN KS WILL LIMIT THIS
BACKWARD PROGRESSION.

MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARMER TEMPS AS
SOUTHERLY-SW BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE PLAINS.
ELEVATED WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CEN KS...AS MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS CAPPED.
STILL THINK CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WELL WEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER WRN KS. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS...DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...TRY TO PROGRESS EAST CLOSER TO CEN KS...SO WILL LEAVE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING AND SUN EVE.
THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL BE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS CEN
KS...AS THE DRY LINE PUSHES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. BUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE STORMS ISOLATED AT
BEST.

EXPECTING SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY TYPE WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH EACH AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THAT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DEEP MIXING TO REACH WIND ADVISORY OF SUSTAINED
30 MPH WITH GUSTS 45.

WILL CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...AS MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TOO COOL DUE TO THE MODELS OVER DOING
THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVING A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST FOR TUE-THU. PLACING IT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 FOR EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DURING THIS PERIOD. EXTENT OF CONVECTION ON TUE/WED WILL
DEPEND ON HOW WARM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS CEN KS. THE BETTER DAYS FOR WIDESPREAD
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ON WED/THU AFTN...AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SW US INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON WED AND ACROSS CEN KS ON THU.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

MVFR CIGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. AM
EXPECTING THESE CIGS TO REMAIN AND LOWER SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WILL RUN WITH IFR LEVELS FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ELEVATION SITES
(KHUT-KRSL) BUT DO FEEL THAT KICT WILL AT LEAST FLIRT WITH SOME
IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT. THESE CIGS SHOULD START TO LIFT A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE MAIN AVIATION STORY WILL THEN BECOME THE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS. ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 AM LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      85  65  89  66 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          84  65  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        82  65  85  67 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  66  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         87  65  90  67 /  10  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      86  65  90  68 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA          86  65  89  66 /  20  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       85  65  89  66 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     82  65  83  66 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         82  65  83  65 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            82  64  83  65 /  20  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  83  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$