Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 272014
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
314 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017


Tonight, A diffuse frontal boundary is currently located from
Wellington to Iola or generally along and just east of the KS
turnpike. Latest satellite imagery shows some clearing just
southeast of the frontal boundary, with some CU trying to bubble
up due to the differential heating. Latest RAP data shows some
surface based instability continuing to pool just to the south of
the boundary with SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 j/kg.

Latest hi-rez model solutions suggest that the frontal boundary will
make slow progress to the south for the late afternoon hours.  Some
concern that this front will linger over SE KS for the late
afternoon hours, with afternoon heating leading to renewed surface
based convection for late this afternoon, and early this evening
mainly across the Flint Hills, and areas southeast of the Wichita
metro area. So will keep some low pops across SE and southern KS for
this chance.  Main concern with convection will be a few strong to
marginally severe storms with wind gusts to 50-60 mph and locally
heavy rainfall due to the slow movement and precipitable water
values of 200 percent of normal.  As the evening progresses, think
the storm chances will shift to the south-southeast as the front
pushes into nrn OK.

Some concern that the elevated 850-700h baroclinic zone may linger
over srn KS which may lead to some additional showers/storms across
srn KS late this evening.  But widespread subsidence looks to build
in behind the front, with the best FN-convergence located to the
south of the forecast area.  So will continue to go with a pops
shifting south of the area.

By Friday morning, the front will be well south into Oklahoma
with some drier air finally making its way into the area. Upper
flow will become more northwesterly as a shortwave approaches the
Ohio Valley. This will also shove the upper ridge slightly
southwest along with the above normal temps. Any shower or storm
chances through the weekend will be tied to moonsonal
moisture/energy. High Plains of eastern CO/western KS will have
the higher chances through the weekend with a small chance some of
this may work into areas west of I-135 Sun evening. With rain
chances tied to such weak upper forcing, confidence is not very
high on how far east showers/storms make it.

Good news is that temps this weekend will be a few degrees below
normal as they top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Overall pattern will not change too much for next week with upper
troughing over the eastern CONUS with broad ridging over the
west/sw. This will keep close to or slightly below normal temps
in place through next week. Precip chances will continue to be
associated with desert sw moonsonal moisture that may try and push
east into the high Plains by mid week. The GFS in much more
agressive with this scenario compared to the ECMWF which does
decrease confidence with regards to precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A diffuse frontal boundary continues to ooze south across the
forecast area at this time. Currently located near the KS turnpike.
A mixed bag of cigs as this front pushes south, with MVFR and even
some isolated IFR for areas north of the front, with KGBD still IFR
for a few more hours.  expect the MVFR and IFR clouds to slowly
diminish late this afternoon.

As the front slowly shifts southeast, increased heating ahead of the
front may lead to renewed convection for areas east of the KS
turnpike for the late afternoon hours.  So will go with VCTS for the
KCNU taf for the 21-00z time frame.  Think the convective chances
will diminish for the evening hours, as the front continues to push
south into nrn OK.

VFR conditions will return for the late evening and overnight, as
drier air builds into the area with a surface ridge moving into
the northern plains.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  72  90  67 /  10  20  10   0
Hutchinson      86  70  92  65 /  10  10  10   0
Newton          85  69  89  64 /  10  10  10   0
ElDorado        88  70  87  64 /  20  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   92  72  90  67 /  20  20  10   0
Russell         87  67  87  66 /  10   0   0  10
Great Bend      86  67  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          87  69  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       86  69  91  64 /  10  10   0   0
Coffeyville     94  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
Chanute         90  71  86  65 /  20  20  10   0
Iola            88  70  85  64 /  20  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    92  72  87  66 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL/Ketcham
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...Ketcham


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