Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 200901
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A STRONG UPPER JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND
ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY THIS WEEKEND IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS WEEKEND...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS IN THE 285-290K LAYER WITH LOWERING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVELS. TWO SEPARATE AREAS
OF DEEPER LIFT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. ONE
AREA PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KS...IOWA...MISSOURI. A
SECOND AREA PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FOR
OUR AREA...RELATIVELY HIGHER LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH 15-20% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND 50/LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FLAVOR FOR TUESDAY
AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN MODIFY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
GFS OFFERS A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE BRUNT OF THE ENERGY
PASSING JUST NORTH OF KANSAS. THIS WOULD BRING SOME COLDER AIR IN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG AND AMPLIFY THE ENERGY
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TRACK. THIS COULD AFFECT OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A
BIGGER SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR
AREA...BUT FEEL IT`S PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE
FORECAST IN CENTRAL KS...AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A COOLDOWN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR/LIFR HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SSW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MUCH OF SE KS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT WHILE
MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED FURTHER WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN FREE OF LOW CIGS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRATUS...INCREASING CIRRUS ARE ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  36  47  39 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      46  35  48  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          44  35  46  39 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        45  36  47  40 /   0   0  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   47  37  48  40 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         48  31  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      48  32  49  35 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          45  34  48  37 /   0   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       45  34  47  37 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     46  36  49  41 /   0   0  10  20
CHANUTE         44  35  47  41 /   0   0  10  20
IOLA            43  35  46  40 /   0   0  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    45  36  48  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.