Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180340
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1040 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Brief cool down through Monday.

- Warming trend beginning Tuesday with a chance for showers and
  storms across southern Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

A stationary mid/upper trough continues to spin over the Southwest
while another large mid/upper trough was carved out over much of the
eastern United States. This pattern is progged to amplify as we move
through the early portion of the upcoming week.

A cold night is in store across the region tonight as high pressure
settles southward over the Central Plains. The best radiational
cooling may remain just north/northwest of our area but temperatures
were trended lower over central KS where some teens will be possible.

Low level southwest flow combined with rising heights/increasing
thickness will allow temperatures to quickly moderate on Tue. Above
normal values are anticipated with highs in the low to mid 70s. At
the same time, the stubborn slow moving trough over the Southwest is
progged to translate eastward into the Southern Rockies while
northwest mid/upper flow prevails downstream across the central
CONUS.

Wed-Thu...Some cooler air may arrive on Wed a cold arrives but the
bulk of cooler air may remain further north and east of the area.
We`ll also see an increasing chance for showers and storms late in
the day or overnight as the shortwave trough emerges from the
Southern Rockies and moves over the Southern Plains. The current
track of this system would favor southern Kansas for better
precipitation chances with little or no precipitation anticipated
across our central Kansas counties. Some showers and perhaps an
isolated storm may linger into Thu and low pops were maintained over
mainly southern Kansas.

Another push of cooler air may arrive on Friday and values were
trended downward slightly. We`ll see another robust mid/upper trough
emerge from the western CONUS as we move into the weekend bringing
the potential for impactful weather but there continues to be some
phase/amplitude issues which leads to low confidence in impacts at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the forecast valid period with
just a few-sct altocu grazing mainly south central Kansas
overnight. Light northerly component winds tonight into early
afternoon on Monday as surface high pressure settles south
across the area. As the center of the high retreats south of the
area by late Monday afternoon/evening, winds will back from the
southwest across the area.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KED


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